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Value of our first round pick


NJOriolesFan

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For this to be a good measurement we should include anyone picked after slot 17. Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Mike Piazza come to mind.

I actually thought his approach was a good one. Otherwise, going your way, you also have to factor in all the first round misses as well. I could also argue there are many MLers who were drafted after the first round. As such, a late first round pick isn't the only way to get talent, making it expendable if proven talent is available. Here are 1st round picks 17-23 for the last 20 drafts. Some notables are Ellsbury, Halladay, Hamels, Sabathia. There are also dozens of other names that did not find a lot of success in the majors, if they made it at all.

YYR	17	17	18	18	19	19	20	20	21	21	22	22	23	232013	CHW	Anderson	LAD	Anderson	STL	Gonzales	DET	Crawford	TBR	Ciuffo	BAL	Harvey	TEX	Gonzalez2012	TOR	Davis	LAD	Seager	STL	Wacha	SFG	Stratton	ATL	Sims	TOR	Stroman	STL	Ramsey2011	LAA	Cron	OAK	Gray	BOS	Barnes	COL	Anderson	TOR	Beede	STL	Wong	WAS	Meyer2010	TBR	Sale	LAA	Cowart	HOU	Foltynewicz	BOS	Vitek	MIN	Wimmers	TEX	Deglan	MIA	Yelich2009	ARI	Pollock	MIA	James	STL	Miller	TOR	Jenkins	HOU	Mier	MIN	Gibson	CHW	Mitchell2008	TOR	Cooper	NYM	Davis	CHC	Cashner	SEA	Fields	DEET	Perry	NYM	Havens	SDP	Dykstra2007	TEX	Beavan	STL	Kozma	PHI	Savery	LAD	Withrow	TOR	Arencibia	SFG	Alderson	SDP	Schmidt2006	SDP	Antonelli	PHI	Drabek	MIA	Sinkbeil	MIN	Parmelee	NYY	Kennedy	WAS	Willems	HOU	Sapp2005	NYY	Henry	SDP	Carrillo	TEX	Mayberry	CHC	Pawelek	OAK	Pennington	MIA	Thompson	BOS	Ellsbury2004	LAD	Elbert	CHW	Fields	STL	Lambert	MIN	Plouffe	PHI	Golson	MIN	Perkins	NYY	Hughes2003	BOS	Murphy	CLEE	Snyder	ARI	Jackson	WAS	Cordero	MIN	Moses	SFG	Aardsma	LAA	Wood2002	PHI	Hamels	CHW	Ring	LAD	Loney	MIN	Span	CHC	Brownlie	CLEE	Guthrie	ATL	Francoeur2001	CLE	Denham	NYM	Heilman	BAL	Fontenot	CIN	Sowers	SFG	Hennessey	ARI	Bulger	MNYY	Griffin2000	LAD	Diggins	TOR	Negron	PIT	Burnett	LAA	Bootcheck	SFG	Bonser	BOS	Dumatrait	CIN	Espinosa1999	BOS	Asadoorian	BAL	Stahl	TOR	Rios	SDP	Faison	BAL	Bigbie	CHW	Ginter	BAL	Reed1998	HOU	Lidge	LAA	Etherton	SFG	Torcato	CLE	Sabathia	NYM	Tyner	SEEA	Thornton	LAD	Crosby1997	BOS	Curtice	COL	Mangum	SEA	Anderson	STL	Kennedy	OAK	DuBose	BAL	Werth	WAS	Bridges1996	CHC	Noel	TEX	Dickey	HOU	Johnson	NYY	Milton	COL	Westbrook	SEEA	Meche	LAD	Rolls1995	TOR	Halladay	NYM	Jaroncyk	KCR	LeBron	LAD	Yocum	BAL	Shepherd	HOU	McKnight	CLE	Miller1994	HOU	Castro	DET	Gaspar	STL	Wagner	NYM	Long	WAS	Bocachica	SFG	Powell	PHI	Loewer
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After turning down AAV of 14.1, you can not expect a contact with less than a 13 million AAV over three or four years. It can't happen.

Last year 4/9 free agents received an AAV less then the qualifying offer, which was 13.3M.

Real good chance Morales receives an AAV less then 14M/year over a long term contract. Especially when you factor in that his market is already limited because most teams view him as a dh.

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I actually thought his approach was a good one. Otherwise, going your way, you also have to factor in all the first round misses as well. I could also argue there are many MLers who were drafted after the first round. As such, a late first round pick isn't the only way to get talent, making it expendable if proven talent is available. Here are 1st round picks 17-23 for the last 20 drafts. Some notables are Ellsbury, Halladay, Hamels, Sabathia. There are also dozens of other names that did not find a lot of success in the majors, if they made it at all.
YYR17171818191920202121222223232013CHWAndersonLADAndersonSTLGonzalesDETCrawfordTBRCiuffoBALHarveyTEXGonzalez2012TORDavisLADSeagerSTLWachaSFGStrattonATLSimsTORStromanSTLRamsey2011LAACronOAKGrayBOSBarnesCOLAndersonTORBeedeSTLWongWASMeyer2010TBRSaleLAACowartHOUFoltynewiczBOSVitekMINWimmersTEXDeglanMIAYelich2009ARIPollockMIAJamesSTLMillerTORJenkinsHOUMierMINGibsonCHWMitchell2008TORCooperNYMDavisCHCCashnerSEAFieldsDEETPerryNYMHavensSDPDykstra2007TEXBeavanSTLKozmaPHISaveryLADWithrowTORArencibiaSFGAldersonSDPSchmidt2006SDPAntonelliPHIDrabekMIASinkbeilMINParmeleeNYYKennedyWASWillemsHOUSapp2005NYYHenrySDPCarrilloTEXMayberryCHCPawelekOAKPenningtonMIAThompsonBOSEllsbury2004LADElbertCHWFieldsSTLLambertMINPlouffePHIGolsonMINPerkinsNYYHughes2003BOSMurphyCLEESnyderARIJacksonWASCorderoMINMosesSFGAardsmaLAAWood2002PHIHamelsCHWRingLADLoneyMINSpanCHCBrownlieCLEEGuthrieATLFrancoeur2001CLEDenhamNYMHeilmanBALFontenotCINSowersSFGHennesseyARIBulgerMNYYGriffin2000LADDigginsTORNegronPITBurnettLAABootcheckSFGBonserBOSDumatraitCINEspinosa1999BOSAsadoorianBALStahlTORRiosSDPFaisonBALBigbieCHWGinterBALReed1998HOULidgeLAAEthertonSFGTorcatoCLESabathiaNYMTynerSEEAThorntonLADCrosby1997BOSCurticeCOLMangumSEAAndersonSTLKennedyOAKDuBoseBALWerthWASBridges1996CHCNoelTEXDickeyHOUJohnsonNYYMiltonCOLWestbrookSEEAMecheLADRolls1995TORHalladayNYMJaroncykKCRLeBronLADYocumBALShepherdHOUMcKnightCLEMiller1994HOUCastroDETGasparSTLWagnerNYMLongWASBocachicaSFGPowellPHILoewer

Oh. There is no doubt that factoring in misses after pick 17 decreases the odds. No doubt. I am just saying to disregard the position as having value based on picks at that exact slot probably devalues what a smart organization with good scouting could do with it. As opposed to signing Vlad Guerrero. Which I once championed.
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Oh. There is no doublt that factoring in misses afte pick 17 decreases the odds. No doubt. I am just saying to disregard the position as having value based on picks at that exact slot probably devalues what a smart organization with good scouting could do with it. As opposed to signing Vlad Guerrero. Which I once championed.

You are coming along nicely.

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Mike Trout was picked at 25. We pick at 17. There is no one left that qualifies as a slam-dunk, franchise-changing superstar- not Cruz, not Morales, not Jimenez or Santana. All of them have pretty noticable warts and not one of them realistically puts us over the top.

End of discussion as far as I'm concerned.

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Mike Trout was picked at 25. We pick at 17. There is no one left that qualifies as a slam-dunk, franchise-changing superstar- not Cruz, not Morales, not Jimenez or Santana. All of them have pretty noticable warts and not one of them realistically puts us over the top.

End of discussion as far as I'm concerned.

The next Trout won't drop to 25. I am sure that Trout has erased the memory of Billy Rowell from the scouts.

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At this point, with the financial pressure DD faces, his focus on improving MiL instruction and development... DD can't afford to give up ANY pick. I can't believe he spent the tradeable picks at last Waiver Deadline.

NO PICK LEFT BEHIND!!!!!!!!!!!11

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The next Trout won't drop to 25. I am sure that Trout has erased the memory of Billy Rowell from the scouts.

My point was simply that superstar players are still potentially drafted at 17 or later and that none of the players left are worth sacrificing that lottery ticket since none of them is likely to take the Orioles from the middle of the pack to the head of the class.

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My point was simply that superstar players are still potentially drafted at 17 or later and that none of the players left are worth sacrificing that lottery ticket since none of them is likely to take the Orioles from the middle of the pack to the head of the class.

I know. I don't expect to see another hit like Trout for a long long time.

Of course I will be pretty happy with just an occasional all star from #17.

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If the idea is that whoever we sign won't make any difference, then yes we shouldn't give up the pick. However, for anyone who thinks it might make a difference, the chances are probably 50-1 or better that we'll get an impact major leaguer with the 17th pick in the 1st round. Every year, someone hits with a pick after the top 10. The Marlins did well with Jose Fernancez. The Angels did so with Trout. It could happen. It's just very doubtful that it will happen.

That is a pretty high standard for "impact major leaguer" if you are talking Fernandez and Trout.

Jones was the 37th pick and I would say he is an "impact major leaguer".

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If the idea is that whoever we sign won't make any difference, then yes we shouldn't give up the pick. However, for anyone who thinks it might make a difference, the chances are probably 50-1 or better that we'll get an impact major leaguer with the 17th pick in the 1st round. Every year, someone hits with a pick after the top 10. The Marlins did well with Jose Fernancez. The Angels did so with Trout. It could happen. It's just very doubtful that it will happen.

I think we can all agree that none of Cruz, Morales, Jimenez, and Santana would individually make a huge difference in all likelihood. Clayton Kershaw? Sure. Those guys? No way, Jose Canseco.

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Mike Trout was picked at 25. We pick at 17. There is no one left that qualifies as a slam-dunk, franchise-changing superstar- not Cruz, not Morales, not Jimenez or Santana. All of them have pretty noticable warts and not one of them realistically puts us over the top.

End of discussion as far as I'm concerned.

If the idea is that whoever we sign won't make any difference, then yes we shouldn't give up the pick. However, for anyone who thinks it might make a difference, the chances are probably 50-1 or better that we'll get an impact major leaguer with the 17th pick in the 1st round. Every year, someone hits with a pick after the top 10. The Marlins did well with Jose Fernancez. The Angels did so with Trout. It could happen. It's just very doubtful that it will happen.

As I said.....

Honestly, does it even really matter what number the first round pick is? They can't scout. They can't draft. They can't develop.

Machado is the outlier, I feel like he'd be successful anywhere. He was a no brainer.

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