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About Adam Jones' Defense:


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Yes, but what is the criteria used to judge that x% of CFers would make a play on a batted ball that fits these criteria?

Data accrued by thousands and thousands of man hours watching every struck ball in baseball by companies like STATS, Inc. and Baseball Info Solutions.

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I don't get what you mean here? Why would the result of the play mean anything to the fact of whether or not he made the play?

A missed ball deep counts for more runs than a missed ball shallow. A missed ball deep likely means an extra base hit. A missed ball shallow is likley a single. The metrics account for this (no matter what it really turned out to be). Each batted ball is grouped in a "bucket" (small area of the field) and further categorized by difficulty/trajectory (line drive, fliner, high flyball etc). From there the percentage of players making a particular player is measured. For example, if there were 50 hard line drives hit to area A20 on the field you would be able to come up with a number of how many players (and a percentage) that made that particular play.

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A missed ball deep counts for more runs than a missed ball shallow. A missed ball deep likely means an extra base hit. A missed ball shallow is likley a single. The metrics account for this (no matter what it really turned out to be). Each batted ball is grouped in a "bucket" (small area of the field) and further categorized by difficulty/trajectory (line drive, fliner, high flyball etc). From there the percentage of players making a particular player is measured. For example, if there were 50 hard line drives hit to area A20 on the field you would be able to come up with a number of how many players (and a percentage) that made that particular play.

Okay, cool. It would be interesting to see someone provide a tutorial on how this data is observed and the judgements made. I get the missed plays that are clearly in a player's apparent zone, but when there is one green dot surrounded by a bunch of no-chance dots it makes me wonder what makes that play so catchable.

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Okay, cool. It would be interesting to see someone provide a tutorial on how this data is observed and the judgements made. I get the missed plays that are clearly in a player's apparent zone, .

It seems to be evolving quite a bit. I follow DRS more than UZR because everything I have read indicates that they are using more precise data and implementing more technology. For example they have supposedly been using Hit FX/timed data (instead of visual observation) to categorize batted balls the past 2 years. But like Stotle indicated, this is essentially compiled data that either system could purchase and incorporate if they wanted. That said, the UZR/DRS systems do seem to be diverging somewhat (not just data and technology, but methodology), where as before they were very similar, if not clones of each other.

.. but when there is one green dot surrounded by a bunch of no-chance dots it makes me wonder what makes that play so catchable

I would assume the green dot as a high flyball where the red dots were line drives.

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Data accrued by thousands and thousands of man hours watching every struck ball in baseball by companies like STATS, Inc. and Baseball Info Solutions.

Are you to the point where you feel that the defensive statistics are accurate? I recall seeing Bill James recently say no.

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Two reasons that Adams wins Gold Gloves are his arm and that he plays almost every game. Hurt or not he plays. Not too many CFers match his games played in CF. Managers and coaches love that.

He has a heck of an arm and for a big guy he is pretty fast.

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Are you to the point where you feel that the defensive statistics are accurate? I recall seeing Bill James recently say no.

The proprietary stuff is better than the public stuff. I don't think the public stuff has found the right way to parse the info and account properly for sample size. Field f/x will be a great tool for teams, but will not be available publicly.

This is a big reason why pointing to WAR requires context -- the more WAR is dependent on defense (either positively or negatively), the more cautious you should be.

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The proprietary stuff is better than the public stuff. I don't think the public stuff has found the right way to parse the info and account properly for sample size. Field f/x will be a great tool for teams, but will but be available publicly.

This is a big reason why pointing to WAR requires context -- the more WAR is dependent on defense (either positively or negatively), the more cautious you should be.

I appreciate that candor.

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