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DD on the O's CURRENT postseason potential


MrOrange82

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Who besides Boston do you think has a better offense?

Tampa had a better offense than us last year (park adjusted). Our OPS+ last year was 99 (wRC+ 100). TB had a 108 wRC+. They were a much better offense. Our pitching had an ERA+ of 100. Not as bad as some people are making it out to be. Too many people overvaluing the offense and undervaluing the pitching imo. Both areas need improvement.

Toronto was right with our offense last year. Chances are the Yankees and a healthier Toronto will both be better this this year.

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Too many people overvaluing the offense and undervaluing the pitching imo. Both areas need improvement.

Look I have no idea how to solve these problems but I'm sure if we gave a 4-year contract to someone the problem would be solved.

Plus, in year 2 of said contract, when the signed played has an OPS+ or ERA+ under 100, I can pretend I have no idea who you are or what you are talking about when you question me about my ideas.

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The rotation is the best to start the season since he got here. Do you remember last season when guys like Jake Arrieta and Freddy Garcia were being thrown out there?

I was at a game last year and Jair Jurrjens started. He couldn't throw it faster than 84 mph.

Hammel was our ace last year. He's gone. And we have not replaced him. You can argue Tillman will replace him, but then you lose Tillman in his slot. And both Jake and Jair were basically 5th-starter/fill-in guys. Jurrjens almost felt like a swing man. Regarding Gonzo and Chen, I wonder if the league didn't simply catch up to them last year. Maybe last year was "normal." Who knows.

But - not knowing what I know now - I would take last year's Opening Day rotation over this year's. Hammel had proven his mettle and his talent. Chen and Gonzo - we had no idea how high they might soar. Then our youngsters... Well, the only only trouble there was guessing who would win the Cy Young first.

This year... not so much.

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I think Dan wants to add a back of rotation starter and another reliever, and he will then declare us a "competitive ball club". Truth is, nobody really knows whether we'll contend or not. Unless you knew we were going to contend in 2012, don't pretend you know what'll happen in 2014.

Yup. Once every 15 years, we have a chance to compete - as long as everything goes historically well.

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Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere, but it struck me as significant, particularly with all the recent conversations concerning the Orioles' organizational philosophy (or lack thereof). From Roch's blog:

I found the above interesting for a number of reasons.

First off, DD expressly acknowledged, IMO, that the O's are probably not good enough to make the playoffs as currently constituted. That's about as close to a direct answer to that kind of question that I've seen from DD.

Secondly, and somewhat paradoxically (at least in light of the conversations we've had here), he indicates that the team is only a couple players away from being good enough for the playoffs. Specifically, his focus seems to be on adding one starter to the rotation. Since Roch threw cold water on the idea that Garza, Jimenez, or Santana could be that starter, what does that say about DD's opinion of the rotation? Does it not need the "ace" for which many people have hoped? Does it only need a number 3/4-type guy? Who else but Burnett profiles as the kind of short-term, budget number 2 (or possibly better) starter that the Orioles could land?

I have my own opinions on the above (which includes being sick of hearing from DD about the team's returning players), but I'm curious what everyone else thinks.

Koufax and Mays.

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Great post! While the prime of Jones, Hardy, Davis, and Wieters just passes us by.

Asking DD about only being competitive and hearing him only answer about being competitive is letting ownership off the hook. This is already a competitive team. This is already a winning team. But this is clearly not a championship team.

These kind of quotes are the ones that irk me the most because the goal should not be to be competitive. The goal should not just be the playoffs, it should be a championship. This organization (judging by their behavior since the metamorphosis of 2012) seems content to be competitive and that in itself is no longer enough.

I get that for the better part of a decade, this was the only goal and one that seemed impossible. But following 2012, being competitive should no longer be the goal. Not now. How can that be the goal? Not after the the players and the coaches have already proven that they can win, but have also shown that what they have is clearly not enough to win it all. Knowing that much of the current core are nearing free agency, how can winning it all not be the only goal at this point? How can only being competitive hold any merit amongst the fans at this point? How can we believe that the organization cannot spend what it would take to make this team a championship contender after all the years of losing and all the lies that once the O's reached the point of being competitive, ownership and management had the resources and the commitment to do what it would take to bring a long-lost title back to Baltimore?

It drives me nuts that not only do ownership and management seem okay with only being competitive, but that the media, and even some of the fans seem just as content with allowing this organization to follow this path, not only as if this was the plan sold to us all along, but that it is a sound plan, at that.

Some wanna help me off this soapbox? I'm ready to get down now...

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I am just reporting what they showed at the game. You can post some site no one ever heard of before but I will trust my own eyes.

I also attended that game. I don't remember exactly how fast Jurrjen's fastball was being clocked on the stadium gun, but I'm sure that if it had been only 84 mph, I would have remembered that. In any event, though, his stuff wasn't very impressive.

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Tampa had a better offense than us last year (park adjusted). Our OPS+ last year was 99 (wRC+ 100). TB had a 108 wRC+. They were a much better offense. Our pitching had an ERA+ of 100. Not as bad as some people are making it out to be. Too many people overvaluing the offense and undervaluing the pitching imo. Both areas need improvement.

Toronto was right with our offense last year. Chances are the Yankees and a healthier Toronto will both be better this this year.

We scored more runs on the road than Tampa did, so I question whether their offense was better than ours in any real sense. OPS, wRC+ and other advanced stats are nice, but at the end of the day, actual runs scored are what matters.

I'll grant you that the Orioles' offense is a little overrated due to our home ballpark.

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Asking DD about only being competitive and hearing him only answer about being competitive is letting ownership off the hook. This is already a competitive team. This is already a winning team. But this is clearly not a championship team.

These kind of quotes are the ones that irk me the most because the goal should not be to be competitive. The goal should not just be the playoffs, it should be a championship. This organization (judging by their behavior since the metamorphosis of 2012) seems content to be competitive and that in itself is no longer enough.

I get that for the better part of a decade, this was the only goal and one that seemed impossible. But following 2012, being competitive should no longer be the goal. Not now. How can that be the goal? Not after the the players and the coaches have already proven that they can win, but have also shown that what they have is clearly not enough to win it all. Knowing that much of the current core are nearing free agency, how can winning it all not be the only goal at this point? How can only being competitive hold any merit amongst the fans at this point? How can we believe that the organization cannot spend what it would take to make this team a championship contender after all the years of losing and all the lies that once the O's reached the point of being competitive, ownership and management had the resources and the commitment to do what it would take to bring a long-lost title back to Baltimore?

It drives me nuts that not only do ownership and management seem okay with only being competitive, but that the media, and even some of the fans seem just as content with allowing this organization to follow this path, not only as if this was the plan sold to us all along, but that it is a sound plan, at that.

Some wanna help me off this soapbox? I'm ready to get down now...

I think different GM's have different styles and different lingo. Only one team wins a championship every year, so most GM's don't like to promise or predict one, or set that expectation, even though that's clearly the goal. So, when Duquette talks of having a "competitive" team, he may well mean a team that can compete for a championship.

Really, the question should be, "does this team have a good chance to be noticeably better than last year's team?" Right now, I'd say no.

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We scored more runs on the road than Tampa did, so I question whether their offense was better than ours in any real sense. OPS, wRC+ and other advanced stats are nice, but at the end of the day, actual runs scored are what matters.

I'll grant you that the Orioles' offense is a little overrated due to our home ballpark.

Yeah, we'll have to disagree. I'll go with the advanced metrics indicating their offense was 8% better than ours last year (and likely will again be better next year) over a one year variation in their away splits.

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Yeah, we'll have to disagree. I'll go with the advanced metrics indicating their offense was 8% better than ours last year (and likely will again be better next year) over a one year variation in their away splits.

To be clear, I was only talking about which team had the better offense last year. Tampa's offense was extremely streaky last year. They averaged 4.93 runs per game from May 1 to July 21 (73 games), then averaged 3.67 runs/game over the final 64 games of the year. So it's hard for me to divine how good their offense will be this year. Myers may become a beast, and Jennings has a lot of upside. They aren't really a young team, though, with Loney (30), Zobrist (33), Escobar (31), DeJesus (34), Hanigan (32) and Molina (39). Overall I think I still like our offense a little better.

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Yeah, we'll have to disagree. I'll go with the advanced metrics indicating their offense was 8% better than ours last year (and likely will again be better next year) over a one year variation in their away splits.

I think that you are missing Frobby's main point that it is about scoring runs. The Orioles scored significantly more runs than the Rays in 2013 (745 to 700). His point about the road games was simply that you can't attribute all of that difference to OPACY. Looking at the two teams, the obvious statistical difference that might account for the run-scoring differential is home runs (O's 212, Rays 165). Just as OBP was being overlooked and undervalued in 2002, perhaps SLG is being undervalued now. Advanced statistics are very nice, but do not always perfectly align with run production. I think that it is important to remember the primary objective is scoring runs, when talking about offense.

The Orioles issue in 2013 was giving up runs, not scoring them. The defense was historically good, so it seems to me that pitching was evidently what dragged the team down.

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