Dan Duquette Q&A

[TonySoprano]

This post has evolved as I went through my notes, and also listened to what I got on my i-phone voice recorder. I have gone back and added numerous direct quotes from Dan. Yes, I was able to ask a question today, but it wasn't about money (more on that in a bit). This is what I have to report.

He noted a fan letter that he got last year, "Dan, thank you for doing NOTHING this offseason." "This year I haven't had the same response. I think Orioles fans are getting a little bit restless"

1) “We have some areas to address that we want to continue to address between now and when we open and that’s on the pitching staff. So we’re hopeful to sign another starter and a reliever. But I have to tell you, I like our talent base. I like our pitching staff going into the season, we’re better than…I think we have a little more depth than we had the last couple years that I’ve been here, on the mound. So if we can add a couple more pitchers I think we’ll be in pretty good shape.”

2) We have a terrific core of players. Two that really emerged as superstars were Davis and Machado. We had three GGs last year. Very happy for Manny and proud for team that Machado won platinum glove for best defender. According to baseballreference.com, Manny had the 3rd best defensive season of any player in O's history after one each from Brooks and Belanger. Dan expects Manny to start the season, "he's such a good athlete, he's so dedicated." JJ Hardy accomplished something few players achieve: silver slugger, all star, gold glove. "Jones in centerfield is a terrifically gifted ballplayer, who trains hard, is committed, lives in the community..."

3) Talked to Boras yesterday about Wieters. Boras said, "You know, I tried to take a close look at why Matt's average was down, and I came up with the fact that Matt hit the ball on the nose more times than any other catcher, but the balls were caught." Dan's response, "Scott, do you want to go make that argument to the arbitrator? Good luck, buddy." Boras then goes, "Well, your hitting coaches just tell him hit the ball hard, and everything else is out of his control." "Yeah that's what the hitting coaches say, but that's not what the general manager says. But it’s true, Matt is one of the building blocks of our ball club, and I would expect him to have a much better average. In spite of his low average against RHP he still hit over 20 HRs, he's still one of the top defensive catchers in the league, and he just kills, absolutely kills, LHP from the right side."

4)David Lough was a "significant trade that people don't understand yet that's going to be a powerful and impactful trade on our team. "David Lough came in the league last year, had a bigger impact than any other rookie that came in the American League.... The kid’s a terrific defensive outfielder. He’s a good offensive player; he can hit both left and right handed pitching which tells me he can be an everyday ballplayer, and he has a great arm." Lough has a “chance to replace a lot of the innings and the at bats that Nate McLouth did for us the last couple years. So keep your eye on him, David Lough, really exciting player, LH hitter, a real hard-nosed kid and he’s gonna’ be a good addition to our ballclub.” Dan also noted Urrutia as someone for LF.

5) “The one thing our players have in common, that they really like is they really enjoy playing for Buck Showalter. He has a real way of making it fun… put the players in the right positions.” Table tennis tournaments and pool table in the clubhouse. “It’s kind of like Camp Showalter during the year…. They’re all business on the field, but they have a good time coming to the ballpark. Buck’s a terrific task master. Our emphasis that he's placed on the defense reflected in these guys that are gold glovers and reflected in all the players around the diamond having to play their position has really helped the team become competitive.”

6) “The starting pitching, we have Chris Tillman; he’s coming back, had a great year. We’re hoping that he’ll anchor the staff. Behind him we have Miguel Gonzalez who’s had two good years. Wei Chen is a LHer who we like and he should be back and ready to go. Bud Norris, who we picked up from the Astros, is there. Then we have a couple young pitchers that should be pretty decent everyday starting pitchers and that’s Kevin Gausman, a terrific arm, you saw a lot of his good work last year in relief, so he should be a top of the rotation SP. This kid, T.J. McFarland, who last year we picked up in the rule V draft had a really good winter in Venezuela. T.J. took the initiative to go out to Venezuela and he pitched 39 innings, did real well, so he should be able to make an impact. Then we have Dylan Bundy, one of our top prospects, he should be back to help our ballclub during the season. He’s rehabbing from his elbow injury, but I think that we can expect to see him later on in the season and he should be able to help us.”

7) Transition at 2B – “Brian Roberts had a great career with the Orioles…. Our challenge will be to find an everyday second baseman. We got a good candidate, Ryan Flaherty, who has done a good job the last couple years. Then we have a good kid in this young infielder, Jon Schoop, played at AAA last year, came up, RH power hitter, and he’s got a chance to be a helpful everyday ballplayer.”

8) “We hope to be able to address our DH, being that we didn’t get a lot out of our DH last year. We know that is an area that we need to upgrade along with adding to our pitching staff. Between now and when we open, keep your eye on what we do we should be able to help ourselves in those areas by either signing a player or making another trade”

One man asked why aren’t we going for Morales, the time to win is now, forget the draft choice and we might need to trade Davis or Wieters because we can’t afford them. “There was a good piece on mlbtraderumors a couple days ago about why teams are not being aggressive with Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales. It lays out their economic value of both players to a team and then it also lays out the value of a draft pick to a team. The challenge for those agents to get those players signed is significant because they both turned down over $14.5M which is the value of a qualifying offer and they also, the team that signs them also has to give up the value of a draft pick. If you take a look at the economic ...equation as it relates to those two players it’s going to be very challenging for teams to pay the money in the range of a qualifying offer and also give up a draft pick. It just doesn’t make very good… it’s hard to make a go of it economically on that basis."

"We also picked up another catcher Johnny Monell, LH catcher, kid from Brooklyn, played winter ball in Puerto Rico and he's got 24 HRs in the Coast League. So we're trying to get some more depth behind Wieters to supplement our major league staff. Monell does have some possibilities, he might be a possible DH with the bat. You know 24 HRs in 400 at bats in the Coast League might translate into some good production here.

The first question from the crowd, “What are your biggest frustrations and does ownership ever come into play as far as frustration for you?” Everyone laughed because we all knew Dan wasn’t going to be critical of Angelos. “Having operated a team in Montreal, you know, which is a foreign country and a small market,so small the team had to move to Washington, right? And then having operated a team in Boston, a major market, I can tell you from those two perspectives, Montreal had one of the lowest payrolls in the big leagues because of their fan base. You know the people up there love hockey, I’m not sure they have a passion for baseball like they do for hockey. In fact, I’m pretty confident they don’t. And then going to Boston where they’re very, very passionate about baseball, and it’s a huge media market. Of course they draw regionally throughout New England, and we were able to build the brand not just regionally but nationally and internationally. What I found is every team or every market has its own unique challenges.

Very rarely do I ever address the issue of, you know, what is your payroll gonna’ be? Well, our payroll is what it is. It’s based upon the revenues of the ballclub. But having said that, I know that the best and most capable way to have a good team year in and year out is to have a good player development operation, to have good aggressive scouting, and to be active in as many markets as you can to find good talent. That’s really where I spend most of my time in terms of finding talent. If you find talent, and you build your talent base, you should be good year in and year out. So, with the Orioles we’re on the verge of being good year in and year out because we have been able to build up our talent base, and the investments that we made in the draft when we picked up Matt Wieters, when we got Dylan Bundy, when we got Kevin Gausman, recently, we got Hunter Harvey. Those should be core players that stay with us for a long time to help us be competitive. So all those, you know, challenges that you face are building up your organization, and then getting people to pull the rope in the same direction and we’ve been able to do that pretty effectively here in Baltimore and we’ll continue to do that."

After that, I was up to bat, and asked him, in an ideal world where you can fill your needs in order, how do you rank starting pitching (with Tanaka out of our price range), another bullpen arm, DH, and is LF pretty much taken care of with David Lough? “With the LF issue, I like David Lough to able to help us in LF. I also like Henry Urrutia, the Cuban kid we brought up last year, went to Arizona fall league, did well again out there, and he doesn’t really have any gaps in his hitting profile to be an everyday ballplayer. Last year at this time, he was running from the authorities in the Dominican Republic. He had to take refuge in Haiti, and he didn’t have an opportunity to train. He had a pretty decent year and he did make a couple contributions to the major league team. I think with the benefit of a year of experience and training he should be a good asset to our team, so I like Urrutia to help our team, and I like David Lough to help us in LF and take a lot of the at bats and make a contribution that Nate McLouth did. So we'd still like...I mean, our shopping list really hasn’t changed. We’d still like to augment our bullpen. I have to tell you Tommy Hunter had as good a year as any of these other closers had, and we already have him on our team. And then we also have Darren O’Day, who's been a top quality set-up man the past couple years, so they’re already on our team, they could be candidates to close the game. Having said that, I’d still like to sign a couple pitchers, a starter, a reliever, and also get a LH hitter in there at DH. So, they’re all on the shopping list, and I’m confident we can address all that between now and the time that we open."

Another question, “Dan, you’re fairly committed to developing from within, that appears to be our strategy going forward, how important do you think these international signings can be, long-term?”

“Fred Ferreira , who is our international recruiter, is just a fantastic scout. Fred signed 63 players from the amateur level ,brought in to pro ball, that got to the big leagues. His goal is to get to 75 and get into the HOF. I don’t know of any better talent scout than Fred. Fred seems to have a natural way of recruiting talent. He was recognized last year as the International scout of the year. He signed Miguel Gonzalez for us and he has since brought some good players to the organization including Henry Urrutia. Fred was telling me all the players he signed for the Yankees. He signed Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Hensley Meulens. Then I brought him to the Expos, he signed Vladimir Guerrero Javier Vazquez, Jose Vidro, so he’s signed some really good ballplayers. Fred went to Cincinnati and during his time there he worked for Marge Schott and I looked on his resume' and I said, Fred, why did you not sign any good players when you were in Cincinatti, you were there for five years? He said, “I think it was because Mrs Schott kept asking me why I didn’t drive to Puerto Rico from Ft. Lauderdale when I had a company car.”

[TonySoprano]

With regards to the fan letter, it just seems like sometimes Dan just really doesn't get it.

EDIT: Although wait, I took the fan letter as being sarcastic, but I'm seeing now that maybe it wasn't sarcastic. Which means Dan is acknowledging the fan frustration, so nevermind.

It was self-deprecating meant as comedy relief.

[wildcard]

What was the mood of the crowd and the mood of Dan?

[mi_oriolesfan]

Interesting conversation in regards to Wieters, Boras and Dan.

[Frobby]

Interesting conversation in regards to Wieters, Boras and Dan.

Yeah, I'd like to hear more about the context of that remark. Was he answering a question about trying to do a long-term deal with Wieters?

[mdbdotcom]

Yeah, I'd like to hear more about the context of that remark. Was he answering a question about trying to do a long-term deal with Wieters?

Read like they were starting to discuss Wieters' 2014 salary, with Boras trying to make a case that MW should get more than the numbers indicate. Ergo, DD's reference to an arbitrator.

[TonySoprano]

What was the mood of the crowd and the mood of Dan?

The crowd, once again was largely seniors, along with a couple businessmen, and wasn't hostile at all.

Yeah, I'd like to hear more about the context of that remark. Was he answering a question about trying to do a long-term deal with Wieters?

Dan was just going down the list of his core players, mentioned Wieters and then went into the story which got the laughs he intended.

[srock]

Nice to hear Urrutia is in the mix. He is my breakout bet for 2014.

[oriole]

Thanks Tony for the overview.

Considering the way Boras does business and how Dan & Co. do business I imagine a fruitful working t relationship is not probable. Oh well, such is moneyball, right?

[Frobby]

Does this indicate a rift between what the GM wants implemented and what the coaches are teaching? Or am I reading too much into it?

No. It indicates what a GM says to an agent when they are bantering about salary negotiations. The GM wants to see offensive production, not hard-hit balls.

[wildcard]

This post is going to continue to evolve as I go through my notes, and also what I was able to get on iphone voice recorder. Yes, I was able to ask a question today, but it wasn't about money (more on that in a bit). He noted a fan letter that he got last year, "Dan, thank you for doing NOTHING this offseason." "This year I haven't had the same response. I think Orioles fans are getting a little bit restless"

quick takeaways

1)Dan still hopes to sign a couple pitchers - a starter and another bullpen arm. Hunter and O'Day are possible closers.

2) We have a terrific core of players. Two that really emerged as superstars were Davis and Machado. We had three GGs last year. Very happy for Manny and proud for team that Machado won platinum glove for best overall fielder. According to baseballreference.com. Manny had the 3rd best defensive season of any player in O's history after one each from Brooks and Belanger. Dan expects Manny to start the season, he's such a good athlete, he's so dedicated. JJ Hardy accomplished something few players achieve: silver slugger, all star, gold glove. "Jones is a terrifically gifted ballplayer, who trains hard, is committed, lives in the community..."

3) Talked to Boras yesterday about Wieters. Boras said, "You know, I tried to take a close look at why Matt's average was down, and I came up with the fact that Matt hit the ball on the nose more times than any other catcher, but the balls were caught." Dan's response, "Scott, do you want to go make that argument to the arbitrator? Good luck, buddy." Boras then goes, "well, your hitting coaches tell him hit the ball hard, and everything else is out of his control." "Yeah that's what the hitting coaches say, but it's not what the general manager says."Matt is one of the building blocks of the ball club.... He hit 20HRs, he's still one of the top defensive catchers in the league, and he he kills, absolutely kills RHP from the left side."

4) DH needs upgrade but forget Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz. There was a good article on mlbtraderumors the other day making the economic case not to sign them. It would be a challenge - both turned down qualifying offers of $14.5M. It doesn't make a go economically to pay them that plus lose a draft pick.

5)David Lough was a "significant trade that people don't understand yet that's going to be a powerful and impactful effect on this team. David Lough came in last year, had a bigger impact than any other rookie that came in the league." Lough has a good chance to be starting LF taking the place of McLouth. He also noted Urrutia as someone for LF.

6) Players really enjoy playing for Buck - Camp Showalter during the year. Table tennis tournaments and pool table in locker room. Terrific task master, emphasis on defense is reflected in all the gold glovers and has really made the team competitive.

7) Like talent base, more depth than in past couple years.

I think you or Dan have that backward. Matt kills lefthanded pitching when he bats from the right side. He doesn't hit righthanded pitching that well.

[wildcard]

Thanks Tony for the overview.

Considering the way Boras does business and how Dan & Co. do business I imagine a fruitful working t relationship is not probable. Oh well, such is moneyball, right?

I don't think it partially helps that Boras comes out at the winter meetings and says he is going to negotiation directly with Angelos on Wieters and Davis. I am sure Dan is used to those kind of comments though.

[jtschrei]

Thanks for the write-up. He's putting a lot of eggs in the David Lough basket.

I just feel like DD does not have a mandate from ownership to win now! Like, we do have a great core and we really are only a few players away. Yet, we did not make those acquisitions. That's why I'm so frustrated. Is it possible that Flaherty and Lough are really, really good? Yes. But not likely. It might be more likely that JJ or Machado or Wieters gets hurt for a significant period.

Anyway, I'm disappointed because I feel that the team has a good core and all it would take is a few moves to really put us in a place to contend and we haven't made those moves. C'mon DD. We're not going to have CD and Jones and the rest of these guys locked in at reasonable salaries and in their primes for much longer.

[TonySoprano]

I think you or Dan have that backward. Matt kills lefthanded pitching when he bats for the right side. He doesn't hit righthanded pitching that well.

Fixed it. I did say it was still a work in progress.

[wildcard]

Side note: I admit to being pretty intrigued on what starting pitcher Dan will end up signing. There really are a ton of them left and they'll all go quickly after Tanaka signs. I don't necessarily buy the Arroyo thing. Burnett looks to be reitiring. Garza, Jimenez, and Ervin Santana are all too expensive.

Hammel?

Chen?

Saunders?

I am thinking Maholm if Brunett retires. But that is based on nothing more then I think he is a better starter than Hammel, Bruce Chen or Saunders. There has been nothing written on Malholm and the O's and when asked Roch said he has not heard his name connected to the O's.