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If we don't sign AJ/Arroyo what would you prefer to do?


El Gordo

Which would you prefer  

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  1. 1. Which would you prefer



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Maholm, Capuano, and Saunders, etc., seem to me like adding another Norris type SP.

I don't disagree. I just don't think the alternatives are that much better.

Comparing Steamer and Oliver projections listed on Fangraphs - you maybe win one additional game with Jimenez/Santana over Capuano. Arroyo and Capuano are a wash.

I think the Orioles, as constructed, are an 80-85 win true talent team. One additional win does not get them to the playoffs, so I can't justify giving up a first round pick and/or getting locked into a long term deal when a comparable stop gap can be had for ~1/7.

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I don't disagree. I just don't think the alternatives are that much better.

Comparing Steamer and Oliver projections listed on Fangraphs - you maybe win one additional game with Jimenez/Santana over Capuano. Arroyo and Capuano are a wash.

I think the Orioles, as constructed, are an 80-85 win true talent team. One additional win does not get them to the playoffs, so I can't justify giving up a first round pick and/or getting locked into a long term deal when a comparable stop gap can be had for ~1/7.

I'm not thinking in terms of projected W's, that's pretty meaningless to me. I am looking for IP and QS, some one who can give me 6 and 3 and keep me in games, at least 15 times out of 30 GS. Arroyo can do that. Not sure about any of the others besides maybe Santana.
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Burnett or Arroyo don't move the needle. Neither does Santana/ Jimenez. This is a third place team at best unless something major changes.

AND IT WONT.

Last season we got 25 QS from 11 different SP, not named Gonzo, Tilly, and Chen, in 78 GS. We finished with 78 QS and 85 W. So if we can get one SP who can give us 15 QS, in addition to Chen, Tilly, Gonzo, and Norris, and move that total QS number into the 80's, that would be a big improvement.
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Last season we got 25 QS from 11 different SP, not named Gonzo, Tilly, and Chen, in 78 GS. We finished with 78 QS and 85 W. So if we can get one SP who can give us 15 QS, in addition to Chen, Tilly, Gonzo, and Norris, and move that total QS number into the 80's, that would be a big improvement.

I like your thinking here. So who among the remaining pitchers, not named arroyo or AJ, can give us the quality starts we need? Jimenez and Satana, are not options.

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I'm not thinking in terms of projected W's, that's pretty meaningless to me. I am looking for IP and QS, some one who can give me 6 and 3 and keep me in games, at least 15 times out of 30 GS. Arroyo can do that. Not sure about any of the others besides maybe Santana.
Last season we got 25 QS from 11 different SP, not named Gonzo, Tilly, and Chen, in 78 GS. We finished with 78 QS and 85 W. So if we can get one SP who can give us 15 QS, in addition to Chen, Tilly, Gonzo, and Norris, and move that total QS number into the 80's, that would be a big improvement.

Our processes are different. None of this seems particularly scientific to me.

I guess the bottom line is this: do you think the acquisition of Jimenez/Santana/Arroyo (or, rather, the difference between one of those pitchers and a Capuano type) vaults a non-contending team into serious contention?

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I like your thinking here. So who among the remaining pitchers, not named arroyo or AJ, can give us the quality starts we need? Jimenez and Satana, are not options.
Capuano most likely; though he sucked last season, he has the better track record career wise.
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Absolutely. Gausman could be mediocre this year, but his ceiling is absolutely light years beyond any FA pitcher currently on the market.

At this point I think it would be a waste to put Gausman in the pen. He is a potential top of the rotation guy, let him start and see what he can do. Why sign someone like Yoon who is a big question mark? Signing someone like Capuano or Maholm you know what you will get, an ERA around 4 with his ERA+over 100 since he will be pitching in Camden. It's silly to think Gausman couldn't replicate those numbers, he'd probably surpass them. I actually like the rotation were going with now, although Burnett would have been nice for the Verteran presence but besides Garza there weren't too many sure things on the market.

Tillman

Chen

Gonzo

Norris

Gausman

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