The Big Five Starters - not so bad?

[SilentJames]

You mean the same pitching staff that was near the bottom of the league last year and everything will be great?

Actually, the Orioles staff was essentially league average last year. An ERA+ right at 100.

So your perception that they were "near the bottom" is actually very wrong. They're biggest issues were way too many homers and not enough strike outs.

But even with all the homers the Orioles staff was only giving up 4.38 runs per game, right above league average (4.29) I the Orioles could have found a way to keep the ball in the park more often, the staff would have looked a whole lot better.

The strike outs are another thing entirely and would probably require a significant move, or continued development, to remedy.

[Bradysburns]

Actually, the Orioles staff was essentially league average last year. An ERA+ right at 100.

So your perception that they were "near the bottom" is actually very wrong. They're biggest issues were way too many homers and not enough strike outs.

But even with all the homers the Orioles staff was only giving up 4.38 runs per game, right above league average (4.29) I the Orioles could have found a way to keep the ball in the park more often, the staff would have looked a whole lot better.

The strike outs are another thing entirely and would probably require a significant move, or continued development, to remedy.

It looks to me like our team starter ERA was actually very near the bottom: 4.57 versus 4.02 for the MLB average. Unless I'm missing something.

[wildcard]

Norris has claimed that he was pitching through elbow issues near the end of last season, some of his poor performance could possibly be discounted from that.

I'm sorta sick of the "AL East offenses" talk - if you look at the top 5 offenses last year, only 2 were AL East teams (one was us). Tampa is a team that wins because of pitching, not hitting. The Yankees have a decent lineup, but they weren't a top 5 (or even a top 10) offense.

Both the Rangers and Angels scored more runs than Tampa and New York, Oakland scored more runs than we did. The only team without any comparable was Boston, who had a significantly more potent offense than the others.

Norris pitching in the AL West faced offenses just as strong as the ones in the East.

Norris had a 4.91 ERA in August before he injured his arm in September. That included allowing 7 earned runs vs Oakland in August.

[srock]

It looks to me like our team starter ERA was actually very near the bottom: 4.57 versus 4.02 for the MLB average. Unless I'm missing something.

League Average (not MLB) has Orioles team ERA at 4.20, league average 3.99.

ERA+ iron out the issues with ERA. All the stats show us as pretty average in 2013. Which isn't good enough.

[cridolphi]

Honestly, how many available pitchers are out there that have ever put up a sub 4.00 season in the AL, with say, at least 150 innings?

[vab]

The problem with this is we're back in "if everything goes right, we'll be pretty good" mode. Everything is probably not going to go right and when it doesn't they have nothing to fall back on.

[SilentJames]

It looks to me like our team starter ERA was actually very near the bottom: 4.57 versus 4.02 for the MLB average. Unless I'm missing something.

Orioles starters gave up 4.38 runs per game, league average was 4.29. Orioles starters had a 48% quality start percentage, league average was 51%.

They were below average overall, they were very bad in key categories (HRs allowed for example). But all in all they averaged out to be a slightly below average squad.

[larrytt]

It looks to me like our team starter ERA was actually very near the bottom: 4.57 versus 4.02 for the MLB average. Unless I'm missing something.

Much of the 4.57 ERA starter ERA came about because of Hammel (23 starts, 5.14 ERA), Garcia (11 starts, 5.88 ERA), Britton (7 starts, 5.45 ERA), and Arrietta (5 starts, 7.23 ERA). (ERAs given are only as starters.)

[wildcard]

How much of Norris's second half can be blamed on injury/fatigue is up for question. He had a 3.63 ERA over his first 19 starts while pitching in the AL. If he's healthy he'll be a solid #4 starter. Too much is made of pitching in the AL East.

That would be a good outcome if it turns out the happen that way. I am in show me mode on Norris. I consider that he needs to prove that he deserves a rotation spot. The competition for the 4th and 5th spots may have a good quantity of candidates but the quality is yet to be determined IMO.

[SilentJames]

The problem with this is we're back in "if everything goes right, we'll be pretty good" mode. Everything is probably not going to go right and when it doesn't they have nothing to fall back on.

The only things that really "went right" last year were Davis and Machado.

I think you can argue that more things went wrong than right.

I mean that statement can literally be applied to every team in the league.

[larrytt]

The only things that really "went right" last year were Davis and Machado.

I think you can argue that more things went wrong than right.

I mean that statement can literally be applied to every team in the league.

Agreed. Unless you are a big market team, in general teams don't make the playoffs unless more things go right than wrong. It's frustrating that the Orioles seem to make money like a medium-to-big market team, but spend like a small-market team, but that's where we are. So the most relevant question to ask, once our roster is finalized, is this: If more things go right than wrong, are we a playoff contender?

[tntoriole]

Here is the thing about the AL East:

Its not the AL east of a decade ago.

Three of the five teams in the AL East have offenses either at or below league average. The Orioles are one of the best offenses in the AL East by many measures.

The days of having to go up against massive Yankee/ Boston lineups 40 times a year are gone. The rays are always going to have trouble scoring runs and the Jays - well they are who they are.

I wish somebody had told AJ this.

[SilentJames]

Agreed. Unless you are a big market team, in general teams don't make the playoffs unless more things go right than wrong. It's frustrating that the Orioles seem to make money like a medium-to-big market team, but spend like a small-market team, but that's where we are. So the most relevant question to ask, once our roster is finalized, is this: If more things go right than wrong, are we a playoff contender?

Of course we are.

We have proven that to be the case. The Orioles are not a worse team going into 14, but the question is how much better will they likely be.

The Orioles are banking on internal development and bounce back years from Wieters and Markakis. They are looking for Jones and Machado to stay the course and Davis to be a 40ish homerun threat.

They need OBP, they could use another arm, they need a more solid answer for DH.

Maybe Urrutia/ Reimold/ Lough are the answer for DH/LF

[srock]

Of course we are.

We have proven that to be the case. The Orioles are not a worse team going into 14, but the question is how much better will they likely be.

The Orioles are banking on internal development and bounce back years from Wieters and Markakis. They are looking for Jones and Machado to stay the course and Davis to be a 40ish homerun threat.

They need OBP, they could use another arm, they need a more solid answer for DH.

Maybe Urrutia/ Reimold/ Lough are the answer for DH/LF

I agree the Orioles are not a worse team.

Internal options are not bad, the pitching staff isn't terrible, and the core is solid. Should be a fun year.

I am upset because upgrades were available and the front office cheaped out and didn't acquire any (so far). Its about getting better, and there were ways to do that which did not happen.

[Frobby]

Actually, the Orioles staff was essentially league average last year. An ERA+ right at 100.

So your perception that they were "near the bottom" is actually very wrong.

That number is for the whole staff. The starters were not as good as the relievers.