Orioles still pursuing Ike Davis

[Redskins Rick]

I don't know where to check but my guess would be no. I know he's been sent up and down from the minors multiple times in his career to get straightened out. I'd be surprised if he had any options left.

According to this, he doesn't.

http://www.sportsmedia101.com/baltimoreorioles/2013/11/26/report-baltimore-orioles-to-offer-contracts-to-all-arbitration-eligible-players-yes-nolan-reimold/

[fearthenoodle]

Well, Fangraphs Oliver projections has...

Urrutia at 1.4 WAR, with .287/.332/.422 along with 14 homers and 72 rbi.

Davis at 1.1 WAR, with .216/.327/.398 with 22 homers and 72 rbi

By these numbers, Urrutia is the better guy for us, and we don't have to spend 3.5 mil or give up an asset for him.

You aren't going to change your opinion, and that's fine. But one set of projections (or 3 or 4 sets of projections) don't make it "likely" that one will outperform the other.

[LA2]

Britton is the first guy I thought of. With the Jiminez signing, the only way Britton makes the rotation is another starters injury. He's out of options and we have plenty of options for the pen. The question is how highly the Mets regard Britton and what else it would take on our end.

Hopefully they would consider him the possible second coming of John Maine, which would certainly be worth giving up Ike Davis for.

[gpolee]

.326 OBP is a relatively high floor, particularly for someone who would not cost much like Davis. He was basically a replacement level player last year while bottoming out on batting average and ISO. Considering the amount of major leaguers whose floor is below replacement level, that is a pretty solid floor.

And no, I am not buying JTrea's rhetoric that the Orioles should have tunnel vision when it comes to OBP but when we are talking about the floor of a player who would be a LH platoon DH, I can take a .326 OBP and not much else.

.205 batting average is a crappy, low floor. If you think batting average is meaningless and OBP is god, we have no common ground to discuss. I'd rather have high OBP from a guy who can steal bases, which Ike and Smoak can not do. I prefer the sluggers to put the ball in play, which Ike and Smoak have not shown that they can do. Morales and Cruz have both demonstrated that ability.

[gpolee]

Not helping. Sorry. You brought up OBP, I did not. Obviously Cruz and Morales are more accomplished players, that is why they will be paid 3-4 times as much as Davis.

The question (in comparing a trade for Davis with the signing of Cruz or Morales) is whether the production you will get is 3/4 times what you would get from (for example) a platoon of Davis and Delmon Young.

Yes, you DID bring up OBP - you must have forgotten: "

Quote Originally Posted by gpolee View Post

Here is Ike's floor: 2013 .205 .326 .334 .661 - that's not high, it's pretty low! And he is not a high OBP hitter. Same for Smoak. I think you read the Jonathan French article and he tricked you into thinking that career .230 batters with no speed and two more walks per month compare with proven, talented, versatile major leaguers like Morales and Cruz.

Originally Posted by fearthenoodle None of these guys, including Morales or Cruz, are high OBP guys. Davis has the highest career OBP of the group."

[AlbionHero]

You aren't going to change your opinion, and that's fine. But one set of projections (or 3 or 4 sets of projections) don't make it "likely" that one will outperform the other.

Even if they're the same, or Davis is slightly better, we could use Britton and our remaining money more effectively. If we want to improve the DH position, we should do it with someone who'd actually make a significant improvement... a Morales or Cruz. Not a parallel move.

[fearthenoodle]

Yes, you DID bring up OBP - you must have forgotten: "

Quote Originally Posted by gpolee View Post

Here is Ike's floor: 2013 .205 .326 .334 .661 - that's not high, it's pretty low! And he is not a high OBP hitter. Same for Smoak. I think you read the Jonathan French article and he tricked you into thinking that career .230 batters with no speed and two more walks per month compare with proven, talented, versatile major leaguers like Morales and Cruz.

Originally Posted by fearthenoodle None of these guys, including Morales or Cruz, are high OBP guys. Davis has the highest career OBP of the group."

No I responded to a post from you where you talked about Ike not being a high OBP guy, and then going on to talk up Cruz and Morales.

[fearthenoodle]

If you think batting average is meaningless and OBP is god, we have no common ground to discuss.

Oh my. Everything else being equal, which player would you prefer?

.310 BA, .330 OBP

.240 BA, .340 OBP

[AlbionHero]

Oh my. Everything else being equal, which player would you prefer?

.310 BA, .330 OBP

.240 BA, .340 OBP

I'd go with the first guy, since the extra hits he'd get would move players around the bases easier than walks.

[gpolee]

No I responded to a post from you where you talked about Ike not being a high OBP guy, and then going on to talk up Cruz and Morales.

You responded to me responding to someone else who claimed Ike Davis was a high OBP guy:

Quote Originally Posted by stomperspc

At the worst, you are getting a high OBP platoon DH to pair with Young, Reimold, Pearce or whoever. At best you are getting a 35+ HR guy with high OBP. I think it is worth a shot if the price is not too high.

[Babypowder]

Even if they're the same, or Davis is slightly better, we could use Britton and our remaining money more effectively. If we want to improve the DH position, we should do it with someone who'd actually make a significant improvement... a Morales or Cruz. Not a parallel move.

I don't see either of them as a lock to be a significant improvement. Ike Davis or Justin Smoak if obtained cheaply have a decent chance of being similar vs right handed pitching than either Cruz or Morales, and we have other guys to face lefties as effectively. I'd rather go with what we have than sign either of them. I'd be all for keeping the draft pick, the 25+ million, and obtaining Smoak or Davis... as long as they come very cheaply.

[fearthenoodle]

Wow. Very surprised. Player B makes less outs. Baseball is all about avoiding outs.

[AlbionHero]

Wow. Very surprised. Player B makes less outs. Baseball is all about avoiding outs.

But he also gets less players into good scoring position, and baseball is about scoring runs. If you had a guy on first base, would you rather have a walk to get 1st and 2nd, or a single to get 1st and 3rd? Your chances of scoring a run in the 2nd scenario are a lot better, especially under 2 outs.

Also, a walk with a man on 2nd doesn't get you a run... while a single would.

[fearthenoodle]

You responded to me responding to someone else who claimed Ike Davis was a high OBP guy:

Quote Originally Posted by stomperspc

At the worst, you are getting a high OBP platoon DH to pair with Young, Reimold, Pearce or whoever. At best you are getting a 35+ HR guy with high OBP. I think it is worth a shot if the price is not too high.

I would take a .356 OBP in a heartbeat from the DH position.

[Redskins Rick]

Wow. Very surprised. Player B makes less outs. Baseball is all about avoiding outs.

And on top of that, hitting into a double play, is usually an inning killer.