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Orioles still pursuing Ike Davis

fearthenoodle

By fearthenoodle
in Orioles Talk

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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Considering that they are both the same age (Urrutia is actually older), I'm not sure how you can say Urrutia has more upside with any level of confidence. He's just more of an unknown.

Ike has 4 years of big leagues under his belt, so we have an idea of what he can do at this level.

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<tfoot>[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=colspan: 4, align: left]4 Yrs[/TD]

[TD=align: right]442[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1711[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1488[/TD]

[TD=align: right]196[/TD]

[TD=align: right]360[/TD]

[TD=align: right]81[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]67[/TD]

[TD=align: right]219[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]207[/TD]

[TD=align: right]411[/TD]

[TD=align: right].242[/TD]

[TD=align: right].334[/TD]

[TD=align: right].434[/TD]

[TD=align: right].768[/TD]

[TD=align: right]112[/TD]

[TD=align: right]646[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

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Add another 203 games in the minors.

Urrutia on the other hand, has 81 games in the minors and just 14 games in the majors.

So yes, I think Urrutia has a higher upside proportional, at this point, Urrutia is still a prospect.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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I don't think anybody is a prospect by age 27, but that's just my opinion. Just because Urrutia is more unknown doesn't instantly grant him "more upside". Again- just my take.

I guess thats where we differ on this, while Urrutia is 27 biologically, to me, he is more like a 23-24 year old, and learning the game at this level of play.

If Urrutia makes the 25 man roster and has a break-out year, can't he win Rookie of the year? If so, then he is still a prospect?

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fearthenoodle Major Leaguer

fearthenoodle

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I guess thats where we differ on this, while Urrutia is 27 biologically, to me, he is more like a 23-24 year old, and learning the game at this level of play.

If Urrutia makes the 25 man roster and has a break-out year, can't he win Rookie of the year? If so, then he is still a prospect?

No. Not in my opinion. Was Yu Darvish a prospect just because he was rookie eligible? Is Tanaka a prospect? The fact remains that I haven't seen any longterm scouting reports that project him as more than a 4th OF on a 1st division team. I'd love for him to be better than that, but I don't think that means he necessarily has more upside than that.

Would you have said Urrutia had more upside than Chris Davis during the 2011 offseason after we first acquired him?

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gpolee Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

gpolee

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I would prefer to go with someone like Ike Davis or Justin Smoak over Morales or Cruz. I think one element that is maybe being overlooked is that if the organization does sign Morales or Cruz we are talking about a $110 m payroll this year. If the O's extend Hardy along with handing out arbitration raises for 2015, that will eat into most of the "savings" from Markakis' $15m coming off of the books for 2015 (plus they will need to get a new RF). What if the team wins 85 games in 2014 and has holes to fill? They are not going to have much wiggle room payroll wise to make any adjustments that might need to be made. For that reason, I'd rather have more financial flexibility for next season even if it means a tad more uncertainty this season.

I think Ike's floor is relatively high. He struggled last season relative to his career production, but still had an OBP of .326 (.356 vs. RHP). At the worst, you are getting a high OBP platoon DH to pair with Young, Reimold, Pearce or whoever. At best you are getting a 35+ HR guy with high OBP. I think it is worth a shot if the price is not too high.

Britton is an obvious trade candidate. The Mets could use help at a variety of positions so it is not out of the realm of possibility that later this spring, we could use some of our spare parts to get their spare part. Reimold, Pearce, Peguero, Young, De La Cruz, Escalona, Aceves, Stinson, or any number of our MIF candidates (Weeks, Casilla, De Jesus Jr., Phelps) could be packaged with Britton if the Mets do get to the point where they believe they would be better off picking up to major league ready pieces at areas of need rather than hanging onto Davis (who doesn't have a clear role on their current team).

Here is Ike's floor: 2013 .205 .326 .334 .661 - that's not high, it's pretty low! And he is not a high OBP hitter. Same for Smoak. I think you read the Jonathan French article and he tricked you into thinking that career .230 batters with no speed and two more walks per month compare with proven, talented, versatile major leaguers like Morales and Cruz.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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No. Not in my opinion. Was Yu Darvish a prospect just because he was rookie eligible? Is Tanaka a prospect? The fact remains that I haven't seen any longterm scouting reports that project him as more than a 4th OF on a 1st division team. I'd love for him to be better than that, but I don't think that means he necessarily has more upside than that.

Would you have said Urrutia had more upside than Chris Davis during the 2011 offseason after we first acquired him?

Good points.

Ike isn't Crush, so it's very hard to even try and draw parallels there.

Darvish and Tanaka would be considered solid first rounders.

I dont think anybody ever said Urrutia was a solid lock prospect.

He has an unknown and proportional upside to this game.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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I am also fond of the idea of Urruita and Gausman (with the Jiminez signing) starting the season in the minors and "making" DD bring them up.

I am more cautious with pitchers, so I understand and support the idea of Gausman getting regular SP work in AAA.

Urrutia is different, if he can hit ST well, then I support trying him in the lineup as the Lefty DH

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fearthenoodle Major Leaguer

fearthenoodle

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Here is Ike's floor: 2013 .205 .326 .334 .661 - that's not high, it's pretty low! And he is not a high OBP hitter. Same for Smoak. I think you read the Jonathan French article and he tricked you into thinking that career .230 batters with no speed and two more walks per month compare with proven, talented, versatile major leaguers like Morales and Cruz.

None of these guys, including Morales or Cruz, are high OBP guys. Davis has the highest career OBP of the group.

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stomperspc Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

stomperspc

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Here is Ike's floor: 2013 .205 .326 .334 .661 - that's not high, it's pretty low! And he is not a high OBP hitter. Same for Smoak. I think you read the Jonathan French article and he tricked you into thinking that career .230 batters with no speed and two more walks per month compare with proven, talented, versatile major leaguers like Morales and Cruz.

.326 OBP is a relatively high floor, particularly for someone who would not cost much like Davis. He was basically a replacement level player last year while bottoming out on batting average and ISO. Considering the amount of major leaguers whose floor is below replacement level, that is a pretty solid floor.

And no, I am not buying JTrea's rhetoric that the Orioles should have tunnel vision when it comes to OBP but when we are talking about the floor of a player who would be a LH platoon DH, I can take a .326 OBP and not much else.

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