Does Trout Deal Set The Market for Machado? (Update: 6/$144.5M)

[DrungoHazewood]

A real shame.

I see that's a Maury Brown quote, and he's pretty good, but it strikes me as strange. Bill James was being brought in as a consultant on arb cases 30 years ago. It's hard to believe they've regressed from that.

And if the arbitrators don't have a baseball background why would they be more swayed by traditional stats than advanced ones? Without some kind of education they wouldn't be able to put either into context.

[weams]

I see that's a Maury Brown quote, and he's pretty good, but it strikes me as strange. Bill James was being brought in as a consultant on arb cases 30 years ago. It's hard to believe they've regressed from that.

And if the arbitrators don't have a baseball background why would they be more swayed by traditional stats than advanced ones? Without some kind of education they wouldn't be able to put either into context.

Just telling what I see. It's what I understand to be true as well. I am in no way aware that arbitration has been settled by WAR. So far. Strictly counting stats.

[Stotle]

Here is what I am saying; if Trout has another 10 WAR season, 15 M in arb might be patently absurd. You seem to think that Trout is 3 M better than Howard at the same age. I find that laughable and I am sure any arbitrator would too.

Arbitrators generally try to avoid awards that might qualify as widely divergent precedent. Trout would have the best case thus far in earning an absurdly high first year arb figure, but I'd go conservative on the first award if for no other reason than it's best to assume the arbitrators are going to be conservative.

[weams]

Arbitrators generally try to avoid awards that might qualify as widely divergent precedent. Trout would have the best case thus far in earning an absurdly high first year arb figure, but I'd go conservative on the first award if for no other reason than it's best to assume the arbitrators are going to be conservative.

I believed that, hence my astonishment with the internet's support for those outlandish numbers.

[Stotle]

I see that's a Maury Brown quote, and he's pretty good, but it strikes me as strange. Bill James was being brought in as a consultant on arb cases 30 years ago. It's hard to believe they've regressed from that.

And if the arbitrators don't have a baseball background why would they be more swayed by traditional stats than advanced ones? Without some kind of education they wouldn't be able to put either into context.

No advanced baseball background. Necessarily. But they run the gamut. You have a set amount of time, so general consensus is you don't want to waste it trying to explain what a number/metric is/means. Easy comps tend to work best. The deck is generally stacked against Trout if he's looking to get $17 MM in arb year one.

[El Gordo]

No advanced baseball background. Necessarily. But they run the gamut. You have a set amount of time, so general consensus is you don't want to waste it trying to explain what a number/metric is/means. Easy comps tend to work best. The deck is generally stacked against Trout if he's looking to get $17 MM in arb year one.

I'd be surprised if he asked for 15M, as I initially said, that he wouldn't get it over 12 M proposed by Rosenthal.

[atomic]

Atomic was, but I can't quote him because I have him on /ignore.

Why do you have me on ignore because yo were so wrong about Schoop being on the club? And posting about having someone on ignore is trolling.

[atomic]

Just telling what I see. It's what I understand to be true as well. I am in no way aware that arbitration has been settled by WAR. So far. Strictly counting stats.

We'll since there is no standard WAR stat that would make sense. You can use the Stats that go into WAR to make your case.

[atomic]

Just want to say, Cano isn't near the player Trout has been so far.

That isn't true. Cano plays a much more difficult position than Trout and he plays his position better. If the Orioles could have one for only this year I would take Cano.

[weams]

We'll since there is no standard WAR stat that would make sense. You can use the Stats that go into WAR to make your case.

Evidently not so much. I'd listen to Stotle on this one.

[weams]

I'd be surprised if he asked for 15M, as I initially said, that he wouldn't get it over 12 M proposed by Rosenthal.

It's one. Or the other. Nothing in between of course. I'd hate to have to go in with a number that is 50% higher than a guy with a record amount of homers for an arb player.

[weams]

Arbitrators generally try to avoid awards that might qualify as widely divergent precedent. Trout would have the best case thus far in earning an absurdly high first year arb figure, but I'd go conservative on the first award if for no other reason than it's best to assume the arbitrators are going to be conservative.

Thank you for chiming in.

[Stotle]

I'd be surprised if he asked for 15M, as I initially said, that he wouldn't get it over 12 M proposed by Rosenthal.

I think $15 MM is probably reasonable for an historic first three years, but if that was Trout's proposal it would never make it to arbitration, in my opinion (since the Angels would have to start above Howard's number). Big benefit of this extension is the Angels don't have to worry about Trout asking for a surprising amount, and then being forced to bad talk him in proceedings.

[weams]

Big benefit of this extension is the Angels don't have to worry about Trout asking for a surprising amount, and then being forced to bad talk him in proceedings.

Since the internet would retaliate.

[El Gordo]

I think $15 MM is probably reasonable for an historic first three years, but if that was Trout's proposal it would never make it to arbitration, in my opinion (since the Angels would have to start above Howard's number). Big benefit of this extension is the Angels don't have to worry about Trout asking for a surprising amount, and then being forced to bad talk him in proceedings.

The Angels are essentially giving Trout 12, 18, 24, for his arbitration years. If they wen to arbitration I think they would have to pay more, assuming Trout follows the curve laid out for exceptional players and continues to improve through age 25.