College Players leaving early thread

[Nuclear Dish]

Here is an article that sounds to me that May may very well stay but i get the feeling the other 3 are gone:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney05/news/story?id=2030658

Supposedly, Jawad Williams is also counseling (read: pressuring) Marvin to stay one more year.

My gut tells me that May and Marvin will be back, but Felton and McCants are gone.

That leaves a starting lineup of:

PG - Q. Thomas

SG - R. Terry

SF - D. Noel

PF - M. Williams

C - S. May

And a bench with the 4 freshmen (Ginyard - PG; Frasor - SG; D. Green - SG; Hansbrough, PF), Byron Sanders, and Wes Miller.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Ginyard and Green bump Thomas and Terry as starters by mid-season.

[Sports Guy]

By staying, Marvin Williams really does not do too much to improve his stock.

Listening to PTI yesterday, Wilbon said he has talked to alot of scouts and they do not like Williams, they LOVE him.

He is probably a top 3 pick right now. No reason to stay unless he just wants to.

[Nuclear Dish]

By staying, Marvin Williams really does not do too much to improve his stock.

Listening to PTI yesterday, Wilbon said he has talked to alot of scouts and they do not like Williams, they LOVE him.

He is probably a top 3 pick right now. No reason to stay unless he just wants to.

But that's the whole point. He's not hurting his stock by staying, so he will stay if he wants to. And all indications are that he wants to, only he's unsure whether he should put off the money for another year. His mother worked like a dog to get him to where he is, and he wants to reward her by making sure she never has to work again (unless she wants to).

But my gut tells me he'll opt for another year on campus. I just hope he's smart enough to take out a huge insurance policy, just to protect his future potential earnings from injury.

[Sports Guy]

But that's the whole point. He's not hurting his stock by staying

If he gets hurt he is.

It always depends on his financial situation.

Sean May's family has money...He is in a "Grant Hill" situation". So, him staying makes sense especially since he still is not looked at some top top pick.

[Nuclear Dish]

If he gets hurt he is.

It always depends on his financial situation.

Sean May's family has money...He is in a "Grant Hill" situation". So, him staying makes sense especially since he still is not looked at some top top pick.

Don't get me wrong - it's not like Marvin Williams is poor. They are a middle-class divorced family. His mother taught him well, and he just wants to give something back to her. But she may well tell him that he needs to do what he wants, and if he's given a chance to return by his family (and by his coach - see below) he'll probably choose that.

Roy Williams is a lot like Dean Smith in that he doesn't believe in a player staying if they are a sure thing lottery pick, even if it hurts his ability to field a great team the next year. It wouldn't surprise me to hear that Roy actually counselled them all to leave. But he's not going to tell a guy not to come back if the guy makes clear that he and his family want him to stay.

May is getting feedback that he could go anywhere from 10-29. That's far from a lock for lottery. On the other hand, I don't think he'll ever go for much higher than he would right now. And for that reason, he's still not a sure thing to stay, even after all his hints.

[calsmanystances]

May's stock can only go down by staying. Is he going to grow another inch? Is he going to play as well in a tournament on the way to another title?

So, unless he changes his college game to what the pro game looks for in a 4 (perimeter ability on both the offensive and defensive sides), which UNC would obviously not like, it makes no draft-sense to come back.

Now, maybe he likes college and is not worried about his NBA future/money. If so, come back and enjoy the yr and more power to you. But, I do not see how he will enjoy it as much as he just did-they will not win another title next yr (sorry, if Marvin is told what I think he will be-top 3-he will go in the end. Its just too much risk to stay) and being the defending champs is tough-every team is up for you and you have the media pressure to defend.

Plus, even teams that succeed in defending their sport's title always say it was not close to as much fun as the first (Troy Aikman stated how much fun winning the first title was compared to the 'relief' it was in winning numbers 2 and 3. Tom Brady has made similar remarks)

Leave now while you are on top individually and as a team champion. Then UNC can struggle at the bottom with other powers UM and GT, while Duke rips up the league (again, if SW stays and McRoberts comes and plays unlike Burgess, Beard, Newton, Sanders, Thompson, Randolph et al...Sorry SG praising Duke means I must also make a snide comment)

[Nuclear Dish]

So, unless he changes his college game to what the pro game looks for in a 4 (perimeter ability on both the offensive and defensive sides), which UNC would obviously not like, it makes no draft-sense to come back.

Carolina has a history of big men who come back for their senior year with added range that makes their arsenal that much more attractive to the pros.

Joe Wolf (6'11") hit 23 out of 40 3-point attempts as a senior, which vaulted him up from a late-first rounder to the #13 overall pick in 1987.

Scott Williams (6'10") worked on his outside game a lot between his junior and senior seasons, and although he went undrafted in any case, it helped him find a roster spot with the Bulls.

Going back farther, Rich Yonaker made himself into a 6'9" perimeter player just in time for the 1980 draft, wherein he was taken #61 overall. He had a short NBA career with San Antonio in which he hit 5-of-7 3-pointers.

And there were two guys who actually improved their games between their sophomore and junior seasons, but kept shooting from the outside as seniors.

Pete Chilcutt (6'10") shot 35% from behind the arc his last 2 Carolina seasons, and then shot 38% from long-range in 9 NBA seasons. He was taken with the last pick of the 1st round of the 1991 draft by Sacramento.

Sam Perkins (6'9") shot 43% on 3's his last 2 seasons. He went #4 overall to Dallas in 1984, right after Michael Jordan. He then hit 849 regular season 3's as a pro, and an additional 152 in the postseason, including 66 in 63 playoff games during NBA Finals runs for the '91 Lakers, '96 Sonics, and '00 Pacers.

Sean May has already shown an ability to hit the 18-footer fairly consistently. I think that if he could show that he can step out to 19'9" and hit 30-40%, he'll become more attractive to the scouts. And I have no doubt that Roy Williams would be happy to allow him to shoot it if he proves he's extended his range after the offseason. The trade-off for Williams is worth it.

[calsmanystances]

I would say that none of those guys were close to as dominant down low as May except Perkins; and that none had the bodies for any success in the low block in the NBA except Perkins & Scott Williams but he had neither the hops nor the moves to play well down there.

Perkins three ability was an invention he came up with late in his career so he could continue to pick up an NBA paycheck from a wheelchair. When the Mavs drafted him and when he was at his best, he was a PF who scored about 14 a game with a three not being any part of that avg. Derek Harper and Ro Blackman (with a little help from UM alum Brad Davis) provided the Mavs with their perimeter shooting as you well know Brian (I even followed the Mavs through the 11 win seasons-where were you?!).

If Chilcut and Wolf had the ability to dominate like May did down low I am sure they would not have drifted toward the perimeter. But since they could not do it at the collegiate level I am sure they realized they couldn't do it down low at the NBA level.

I would be very happy for May to take more 18 footers. In fact, I encourage it. Shooting 66% from the field is not a good thing in my book if the player does not play at UM! So go ahead and bomb away Sean.

[Nuclear Dish]

I would say that none of those guys were close to as dominant down low as May except Perkins; and that none had the bodies for any success in the low block in the NBA except Perkins & Scott Williams but he had neither the hops nor the moves to play well down there.

Perkins three ability was an invention he came up with late in his career so he could continue to pick up an NBA paycheck from a wheelchair. When the Mavs drafted him and when he was at his best, he was a PF who scored about 14 a game with a three not being any part of that avg. Derek Harper and Ro Blackman (with a little help from UM alum Brad Davis) provided the Mavs with their perimeter shooting as you well know Brian (I even followed the Mavs through the 11 win seasons-where were you?!).

If Chilcut and Wolf had the ability to dominate like May did down low I am sure they would not have drifted toward the perimeter. But since they could not do it at the collegiate level I am sure they realized they couldn't do it down low at the NBA level.

I would be very happy for May to take more 18 footers. In fact, I encourage it. Shooting 66% from the field is not a good thing in my book if the player does not play at UM! So go ahead and bomb away Sean.

My point on Perkins was that he began developing that shot that came out later in his career while he was at Carolina. And, BTW, Michael, Perkins hit 19 3's on 35% shooting for the '87 Mavs in only his 3rd year in the league.

I agree with you about Chilcutt. But Wolf was a banger down low. He hit 57% of his shots his senior year and 55% for his career, most of which was on the blocks. He was hurt by Brad Daugherty's presence his first three years, so he didn't get time at C, having to be more of a complimentary player. And then in '87 he shared time rotating at C and PF with JR Reid and Scott Williams. Nonetheless, he was definitely a true big man, and not a guy who should have been floating out to the perimeter.

[calsmanystances]

My point on Perkins was that he began developing that shot that came out later in his career while he was at Carolina. And, BTW, Michael, Perkins hit 19 3's on 35% shooting for the '87 Mavs in only his 3rd year in the league.

Out of Perkins 849 three pointers made in his career only 114 came in his first 10 seasons (until the age of 32). He made 735 of his 849 three's in the last 8 yrs of his 18 yr career when he could no longer move well and had to find a niche as a big man perimeter shooter.

He really had no three point shot when he came into the NBA from UNC. In his first 6 seasons with the Mavs he made only 57 three pointers-less than double figures per yr. at a 26% clip.

I think it would piss off UNC fans to see May popping outside jumpers next yr knowing that the only reason he is doing it is to try and get drafted higher. If he would stay down low he'd continue to be unstoppable to most defenders, shoot at a very high clip and also be in position for offensive boards. Plus, who knows if he can make a decent amount of perimeter shots when shooting them at a much higher rate-and it definitely would be at a much lower % then what he shot from the floor overall.

So either he stays at UNC and plays the same game as he did in his first three years which obviously would not improve his draft stock from this yr when he led his team to a NC as the dominating player, or he stays and changes his game to incorporate more 18 footers which would lower his shooting % and rebounding numbers. And if he proves unable to consistently shoot the J he could possibly lower his draft position by having stats which are worse in a few categories (shooting %, FT's attempted and rebound avg.) and by having a yr of Bill Packer-types denouncing him for trying to impress the NBA scouts. He wouldn't be the first big man this has happened to.

Now from a UNC fans perspective of course I would want May back even if it is to only work on his perimeter game; but from his NBA perspective it is risky and with a very low probability of helping his pro stock.

[Nuclear Dish]

He really had no three point shot when he came into the NBA from UNC. In his first 6 seasons with the Mavs he made only 57 three pointers-less than double figures per yr. at a 26% clip.

No, he really had no NBA three point shot when he came into the NBA from UNC. Big difference. The Big Smooth could always hit the shot from 18 or 19 feet. He just extended his range as he got older. He developed his 18 footer while he was at UNC.

I think it would piss off UNC fans to see May popping outside jumpers next yr knowing that the only reason he is doing it is to try and get drafted higher. If he would stay down low he'd continue to be unstoppable to most defenders, shoot at a very high clip and also be in position for offensive boards. Plus, who knows if he can make a decent amount of perimeter shots when shooting them at a much higher rate-and it definitely would be at a much lower % then what he shot from the floor overall.

So either he stays at UNC and plays the same game as he did in his first three years which obviously would not improve his draft stock from this yr when he led his team to a NC as the dominating player, or he stays and changes his game to incorporate more 18 footers which would lower his shooting % and rebounding numbers. And if he proves unable to consistently shoot the J he could possibly lower his draft position by having stats which are worse in a few categories (shooting %, FT's attempted and rebound avg.) and by having a yr of Bill Packer-types denouncing him for trying to impress the NBA scouts. He wouldn't be the first big man this has happened to.

Let's be honest here. May needs to be able to play facing the basket because when he gets to the pros, whether it's this year or next, he's going to be undersized. The only way he improves his draft spot is if he shows the scouts that he can draw a big defender away from the basket, and the only way he can do that is to be able to consistently hit the 18-19 foot jumper.

So basically, he's going to have to hit about 1 3-pt. shot per game as a senior to be able to demonstrate that, and he's going to have to hit them at about a 40% clip to give them any confidence. That means that if Carolina plays 35 games, he'd have to take 87 3-pointers (about 2-3 per game).

That's a little high for my tastes for a guy who is clearly so dominant onthe blocks. However, if that's the price I have to pay to get him back, I think I can deal with it. You still get 3 points for 2.5 possessions (and that's assuming no offensive rebounds on the 1-2 misses, which tend to be longer rebounds, such that May wouldn't necessarily have a good shot at them under the basket in any case). Normally, with him shooting about 65% on 2.5 possessions, you'd get 3.25 points, again, assuming no rebounds on the misses. Hell, even if you assume UNC would get an offensive rebound and score on 50% of the misses, you're only talking about an increase to about 4 points over those same 2.5 possessions.

In other words, for 1 point per game (and more likely closer to 0.25 points per game), I think I'd be more than willing to allow Sean to work on his game for the pros at UNC.

Now of course, this assumes that he'll be able to hit at 40%. If he's only going to hit 25%, it's not worth it to him, and it's not worth it to UNC (no, wait, it STILL might be worth it. Then it's 3 points for 4 possessions vs. about 6 points. Tougher call at a decrease of 3 points per game.)

So basically, if Sean is going to come back, he needs to be willing to shoot 500 3-pointers a day in the summer until he;s confident he can hit the 3-ball 40% of the time. If not, he's going to have wasted all the momentum he gained in the tournament this year.

[calsmanystances]

So basically, if Sean is going to come back, he needs to be willing to shoot 500 3-pointers a day in the summer until he;s confident he can hit the 3-ball 40% of the time. If not, he's going to have wasted all the momentum he gained in the tournament this year.

In today's college game, guards who have been shooting three's all through jr high, high school and college and hit 40% are considered very good shooters-what are the odds that a guy who has never spent time shooting three's will be able to hit that 40% mark or anywhere near it? I would say the odds are higher on May shooting 20%-25% from downtown then 40%. So, it would lead to my original premise-it would indeed waste all the momentum he generated this yr, and down the stretch specifically.

Why stay if the two most likey outcomes-either playing the same style he did in yrs. 1-3 at UNC, or shooting more three's but at a low clip and hurting himself-are worse then what you are at draft-wise right now?

[Nuclear Dish]

In today's college game, guards who have been shooting three's all through jr high, high school and college and hit 40% are considered very good shooters-what are the odds that a guy who has never spent time shooting three's will be able to hit that 40% mark or anywhere near it? I would say the odds are higher on May shooting 20%-25% from downtown then 40%. So, it would lead to my original premise-it would indeed waste all the momentum he generated this yr, and down the stretch specifically.

I'd accept this, except for the fact that May can already stroke an 18-footer pretty well, so stepping back an extra 2 feet isn't going to be that difficult, and the fact that, as I mentioned before, Carolina big men have a history of shooting 40% on 3's in their final couple years at the school.

Generally, the Carolina offense is such that if a big man is shooting a 3, it's going to be a high-percentage shot from the top of the key, or an open look with no one anywhere near him. That's why Perkins, Wolf, and Chilcutt were all able to shoot 3's at such a high percentage. And that'll be the case with May too.

He's not going to be shoointg them at all if he can't demonstrate the ability to do so before the season. And then if he's taking those shots when he's open or from the top of the key, there's no reason to think that he won't shoot at nearly a 40% clip during the games themselves. Sounds like a win-win situation to me.

So you can convince yourself that it's a bad move for him to return, but I personally believe that he won't hurt himself all that much by coming back. His stock isn't going to stay this high through Chicago, and as soon a they measure him, his peak value will drop from #10 down to #20. The fact is, that he's going to go between #20 and #30 no matter when he comes out. And if that's the case, he isn't going to do any damage by trying to pick up a 19-foot jumper.

[Nuclear Dish]

From ESPN Insider's Chad Ford:

High school star Gerald Green declared for the draft on Thursday. That doesn't come as any surprise, though his statement that he hasn't hired an agent raised some eyebrows. He's been hanging around an NBA agent for a week and almost everyone expects him to stay in the draft. The fact that he pulled out of the Hoop Summit and Jordan Classic after a 24-point performance in the McDonald's Game is another indication that he's in the draft to stay.

UNC's Raymond Felton, a source claims, will declare for the draft on Tuesday. Felton is expected to hire an agent, ending his college eligibility.

Wake Forest's Chris Paul has yet to announce a decision though a major rumor (and we stress that it's a rumor) at the PIT was that he'd decided to stay in school. Paul is a great kid who clearly loves playing at Wake, but given his draft status (a lock for the top three) I find it hard to believe he's really skipping the draft.

Kentucky swingman Kelenna Azubuike announced on Thursday that not only did he declare for the draft, but he had hired an agent. I hope he has a passport or an affinity for the Yakima Sun Kings. Ditto for Florida State's Von Wafer if he decides to remain in the draft.

[MDFan]

Nate Robinson declared today.