How many wins will the closer role cost the Orioles?

[Can_of_corn]

My problem with Tommy as closer is that he's a fly ball pitcher, which is ok now, but not when the weather starts heating up or wind is blowing out. How about O'Day??

O'Day is too valuable to install as closer.

[coolbeans]

I didn't particularly like what I saw of Hunter yesterday. Too many hittable pitches right down the middle. If the umpire wasn't calling high strikes it may have been a totally different outcome. If he was throwing 99 mph every pitch, I could live with it but 94-96 right down the middle is not going to make anyone feel good with a 1 run lead. He needs a pitch that moves out of the zone and makes hitters chase it or he is going to blow a significant amount of 1 run leads.

[LookinUp]

I definitely agree with the spirit of this thread. I have a few thoughts.

1. I'd rather have Hunter than JJ, even at equal salary. I fear JJ is cooked, like almost Steve Blass cooked.

2. Hunter will give up HRs and will struggle somewhat against lefties. That means he's not Mariano Riveira.

3. Hunter won't usually beat himself with walks or HBP (yesterday notwithstanding). This is huge for a closer as it should minimize big innings.

4. Hunter was the best option yesterday because Tillman only went 5 innings. If our SP only go 5 IP all year, that will be a consistent problem. The Sox and Yanks are good for a reason.

5. In the end, I want Buck to manage the 9th differently than he has in the past. Throw in a Matusz/Britton when the match-ups are favorable. Give O'Day, Webb, Britton and Matusz some opportunities, particularly in less stressful appearances, so Hunter isn't overworked. Part of me thinks that JJ's current problems go back to his # of appearances in 2012. Buck rode that horse until he died. For many reasons, we shouldn't make the same mistake again.

[Kalkan]

So, the worst closers will blow about 7 saves while the best closers will blow about 2 or 3 saves. It is also probably pretty hard to figure out who will be the best and worst at that. I mean who tabbed Steve Cischek and Jason Grilli as 2 blown saves guys or Mariano Rivera as a 7 blown save guy.

Hunter, if given a full season, probably blows about 5 games, which is probably 1 worse than to be expected.

Right?

[Bahama O's Fan]

JJ cost me 10 points on my fantasy team last night.

Negative 10 points is not good for one of your pitchers.

[mark_beckens]

What am I reacting to? Tommy Hunter didn't blow it and he handled his lefties yesterday. I didn't make the thread because of the game at all. As other said there was decent justification for using him in that spot anyway.

My point is, if Buck has the luxury of a deep, rested bullpen, with lefties coming up and lefties ready to pitch, would he still go to Hunter for all three outs?

Why did you feel the need to put the precursor in?

Only way to find out if a player can do something is give them the chance to succeed or fail. He's never closed before. You can take all his stats and try and over analysis everything but you won't know if he can handle the job after day 1.

One player, one play never costs a team a win! Jim Johnson wasn't the sole reason we lost any games last season. Hunter will not this season either!

[Redskins Rick]

The Houston Astros are going without a defined closer this season.

Because they don't have one, I dont remember where, but I read somewhere, that the closer by committee has never ever worked.

I can't think of a time it has to refute that statement, can you?

[Barnaby Graves]

Only way to find out if a player can do something is give them the chance to succeed or fail. He's never closed before. You can take all his stats and try and over analysis everything but you won't know if he can handle the job after day 1.

Stats are just a way of quantifying what happens on the field and to disregard them would be stupid. I don't need no fancy book learnin', my heart tells me Luis Matos should be the Orioles 2014 center fielder. :rolleyestf:

Who cares whether or not he has closed? He has faced many lefty batters. Are you expecting something about his stats against them to change significantly this year?

One player, one play never costs a team a win! Jim Johnson wasn't the sole reason we lost any games last season.

This is just a way to minimize his responsibilities and importance which makes it even sillier there's a closer position in the first place. If you're going to have a closer role you might as well stick to your guns about how big a deal it is. And if it's not so important then you might as well put Tommy Hunter and every other pitcher in the best possible position every night to do the best possible job.

Or you could give him bad matchups and force him to pitch on a schedule of irregular rest because you're letting a stat which is useless dictate your plan of battle.

[Frobby]

1. I'd rather have Hunter than JJ, even at equal salary. I fear JJ is cooked, like almost Steve Blass cooked.

Not me. I realize that JJ didn't have a great spring, and had a bad outing to start the season yesterday. I still think, at bottom, his stuff is better than Hunter's.

[Can_of_corn]

Because they don't have one, I dont remember where, but I read somewhere, that the closer by committee has never ever worked.

I can't think of a time it has to refute that statement, can you?

Can you come up with any examples of when it was used for more then a couple weeks?

I don't recall any team giving the idea even a half season of a test run.

[Redskins Rick]

Can you come up with any examples of when it was used for more then a couple weeks?

I don't recall any team giving the idea even a half season of a test run.

Seattle did it for a couple of months from mid june to mid august in 2013.

Tigers tried it too last year, not sure how long.

The Red Sox was the first team to try and wasn't it about ten years ago, not sure if they stuck with it the whole year or not.

[Can_of_corn]

Was just watching the JJ meltdown. He heard some boos after the sac fly, more boos after the RBI single, and then he really heard it when Melvin came to get him.

Ouch.

He's got plenty of hundred dollar bills to dry those tears.

[Can_of_corn]

Seattle did it for a couple of months from mid june to mid august in 2013.

Tigers tried it too last year, not sure how long.

The Red Sox was the first team to try and wasn't it about ten years ago, not sure if they stuck with it the whole year or not.

So no, you don't know of any team that has given it an extended run (The Red Sox experiment lasted a few weeks and I don't even know if the Tigers made it out of ST).

Of course demoting your closer and switching to a committee in mid June isn't exactly a fair test of the concept to begin with.

[Barnaby Graves]

Seattle did it for a couple of months from mid june to mid august in 2013.

Tigers tried it too last year, not sure how long.

The Red Sox was the first team to try and wasn't it about ten years ago, not sure if they stuck with it the whole year or not.

So this is what, a data point-and-a-half? :laughlol:

[mark_beckens]

Stats are just a way of quantifying what happens on the field and to disregard them would be stupid. I don't need no fancy book learnin', my heart tells me Luis Matos should be the Orioles 2014 center fielder. :rolleyestf:

So a players stats from one year is what he will do the next year? They will never change? That is just stupid! Players gain confidence and experience and can improve from one year to the next.

Take a look at David Justices minor league numbers. Then tell me how based on his stats in the minors anyone could have seen he would hit 40+ hrs twice in the majors. Stats can be misleading. They also can be used to prove or disprove anything if used correctly/incorrectly!

Who cares whether or not he has closed? He has faced many lefty batters. Are you expecting something about his stats against them to change significantly this year?

Closing is different then starting or pitching in middle relief. More pressure and there is no way to know if Hunter will be able to handle that or not after 1 game.

Exactly how am I suppose to know what his stats are going to be today? Just like you don't know his stats will be the same as his career #'s, today!

This is just a way to minimize his responsibilities and importance which makes it even sillier there's a closer position in the first place. If you're going to have a closer role you might as well stick to your guns about how big a deal it is. And if it's not so important then you might as well put Tommy Hunter and every other pitcher in the best possible position every night to do the best possible job.

Or you could give him bad matchups and force him to pitch on a schedule of irregular rest because you're letting a stat which is useless dictate your plan of battle.

No player is proven to be able to do anything until they do it. No one knew Trout would be this good. If they did he would have been drafted #1. Mariano Rivera was a starter when he started out with the Yankees. No one knew he would turn out to be the best closer ever. You're making assumptions based on stats that aren't relevant to his current situation. Let the season play out. Let him have more then 1 game before you pass judgement on whether he can or can't do the job.