Does this make sense based on what you've seen this year?

[mark_beckens]

Where did I say that?

You sure think I say a lot of things I don't say.

I am not a math guy. The minutia of the mathematical formula they use is of no interest to me.

I also don't know all the math needed to make a 747 fly, it doesn't stop me from getting on a plane.

Why do you take questions as me putting words in your mouth? You seem to know more about it then some of us do so I'm asking you to explain it.

[notyourbuddy]

Except for the fact that they factor in shifts.

Then why does Stotle's anecdote make it sound like it doesn't? What am I missing here.

But one play, where Markakis happened to be shading over to center field, could lead him to not getting to a catchable ball. Over the course of a couple seasons of data that noise becomes background (e.g. Nick will get credit for catching a "tough ball" while he is shaded to center)

[Can_of_corn]

Then why does Stotle's anecdote make it sound like it doesn't? What am I missing here.

That would fall under defensive positioning.

They have to factor in shift or the numbers go berserk when a third baseman in short right field makes a play.

[Frobby]

Not counting tonight's game. Nick was batting 14-52 for a .269 average. His average is based on his hits divided by his at bats. If that continues at that rate his batting average after 150 games is projected to be, .269

Now can you or anyone else explain UZR and what he has done to warrant a negative number and how they project that number over 150 games to be -8.9

It's easy for me to understand why the rate is -8.9 per 150 games, I just don't understand what negative plays he's made to put him in negative territory. I can only remember one iffy play (which certainly wasn't an easy one), and several pretty good ones.

By the way, do any defensive metrics evaluate the play where the ball caroms off the wall but the RF holds the batter to a single? I've seen Nick hold a batter to a single two or three times already on a play many RF would not make as cleanly, in addition to throwing out a runner who challenged him.

Thanks to all who gave given polite explanations in response to my earlier question.

[mark_beckens]

It's easy for me to understand why the rate is -8.9 per 150 games, I just don't understand what negative plays he's made to put him in negative territory. I can only remember one iffy play (which certainly wasn't an easy one), and several pretty good ones.

By the way, do any defensive metrics evaluate the play where the ball caroms off the wall but the RF holds the batter to a single? I've seen Nick hold a batter to a single two or three times already on a play many RF would not make as cleanly, in addition to throwing out a runner who challenged him.

Thanks to all who gave given polite explanations in response to my earlier question.

I want someone to explain how he has a negative number based on his play so far. What's the formula?

[NJ BIRD FAN]

Ask the folks that designed it.

They track EVERY PLAY.

Math decides it, they track EVERY PLAY.

Math does not decide it. At the end of the day a person is deciding if a play should have been made. Probably someone that only played right field for the two innings that his little league coach was forced to play him. It is complete junk science.

[notyourbuddy]

So if the coaches in the dugout instruct Markakis to shade towards center and a normally routine flyball falls for a hit down the right field line.

UZR properly accounts for this "shift/defensive positioning" or does it say, "No Markakis you are a bad right fielder?"

[weams]

I want someone to explain how he has a negative number based on his play so far. What's the formula?

Formula. Does the player play first base for the Red Sox? +10 Does the player walk less than often? -5

[mark_beckens]

Formula. Does the player play first base for the Red Sox? +10 Does the player walk less than often? -5

Would that be the Bill James effect?

[Can_of_corn]

Math does not decide it. At the end of the day a person is deciding if a play should have been made. Probably someone that only played right field for the two innings that his little league coach was forced to play him. It is complete junk science.

No. It is all tracked. They know the exact percentage of right fielders that make the play via math.

To give an example of what they have the technology to do...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mlbam-introduces-new-way-to-analyze-every-play?ymd=20140301&content_id=68514514

[ledzepp8]

Why bother, you aren't listening?

I will try, again.

Nick didn't get to one or more balls your average right fielder gets to. Since such a large percentage of those balls are caught, it is a major demerit when he failed to make the play.

Now lets say he makes a bad throw to third and a runner advances, the defensive metrics also take that into account.

I think this is what is being questioned by Frobby and others. Do you guys that champion the defensive metrics believe that Nick hasn't gotten to a few balls that he should have gotten to? If so, do you believe it because of how you've seen him play in those 12 games or because his UZR is negative and therefore that must be the case?

[mark_beckens]

No. It is all tracked. They know the exact percentage of right fielders that make the play via math.

To give an example of what they have the technology to do...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mlbam-introduces-new-way-to-analyze-every-play?ymd=20140301&content_id=68514514

Major League Baseball Advanced Media on Saturday introduced a revolutionary plan for in-ballpark infrastructure designed to provide the first complete and reliable measurement of every play on the field and answer previously unanswerable analytics questions.

There will be something for everyone, far beyond what has been available in the past. Miller Park in Milwaukee, Target Field in Minnesota and Citi Field in New York will be operational for this tracking in 2014. The plan is to start rolling out the rest this season so that all 30 ballparks are operational by 2015 Opening Day.

[NJ BIRD FAN]

It is impossible to do. There is no way to factor in wind, spin on the ball, weather conditions, turf conditions. It isn't math. There is a huge human factor. As I said, junk science. But if it makes you happy to believe in something that you admit you don't understand, then have at it.

[mark_beckens]

I think this is what is being questioned by Frobby and others. Do you guys that champion the defensive metrics believe that Nick hasn't gotten to a few balls that he should have gotten to? If so, do you believe it because of how you've seen him play in those 12 games or because his UZR is negative and therefore that must be the case?

Based on the RF wall, Nick tends to play more in right center then normal RF.

[Can_of_corn]

I think this is what is being questioned by Frobby and others. Do you guys that champion the defensive metrics believe that Nick hasn't gotten to a few balls that he should have gotten to? If so, do you believe it because of how you've seen him play in those 12 games or because his UZR is negative and therefore that must be the case?

Frobby himself said that there was one ball.

I haven't watched every inning of Oriole defense so I am not fit to compare.

I will say that over the course of last season I saw, with my eyes, what looked to be a below average right fielder.