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Cruz- would you try and extend him?

terps19

By terps19
in Orioles Talk

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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Four years?

Worst possible extension: signing a DH in his mid-30s to a multi-year contract based on a good two months. Cruz seems like a good guy, if he keeps hitting I'd strongly consider a QO.

Qualifying offer is a no brainer. It will be hard for Cruz not to hit 35-40 and drive in 80-100.

Personally as a DH I'd go 3yrs 30 million and would be happy with .260 25-30 80-90 that you'd get over the course of the contract.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Give him the QO and let him explore his market with that hanging around his neck again. Could well be that he comes back to the O's because they can make the best offer, not having to lose a pick. Maybe 2/30M and a club option for a third year..

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Qualifying offer is a no brainer. It will be hard for Cruz not to hit 35-40 and drive in 80-100.

Personally as a DH I'd go 3yrs 30 million and would be happy with .260 25-30 80-90 that you'd get over the course of the contract.

In your mid-30s a catastrophic collapse is always a possibility. Look at Boog. At 33 he had a .901 OPS. Never OPS'd .700 again. Cruz' top bb-ref comp is Henry Rodriguez, who went 1-for-28 after he turned 32. His 2nd comp is Brad Hawpe, who cratered in his 30s. 3rd is Josh Willingham, who hit .208 with 14 homers last year, and has only played 7 games this year. Third is Jim Lemon, who was a below-average hitter from 33-on. Jayson Werth is the only guy on his top 10 comps who didn't fall apart right around Cruz' age. For every David Ortiz there are 10 or 20 Phil Nevins or Gus Zernials.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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2/30 would be my offer. He'll get more from somewhere else though.

Man, he's having a hell of a year though.

That's about what I'd be thinking.

$30M is five wins, give or take. That's about what he's been worth since the beginning of the 2011 season, or almost 3.5 years, in his early 30s. If I'm DD I'd be very careful about making long-term decisions based on a soon-to-be 34-year-old's hot two months.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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$30M is five wins, give or take. That's about what he's been worth since the beginning of the 2011 season, or almost 3.5 years, in his early 30s. If I'm DD I'd be very careful about making long-term decisions based on a soon-to-be 34-year-old's hot two months.

2/30 years is hardly long term or crippling. You have to take some risks.

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MrOrange82 Hangout Grand Counsel

MrOrange82

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2/30 years is hardly long term or crippling. You have to take some risks.

This season might turn out to be the second time Cruz has ever been worth more than 3.0 fWAR, and you're also talking about a guy with a lengthy injury history. I really like what Cruz has done thus far, but it's a pretty substantial risk.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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See here.

In short: The O's would have to offer Cruz a QO (roughly a 1/13 deal), he'd have to turn it down, and someone else would have to sign him prior to next June, then they get a pick.

I assumed that a QO for next season was going to be 15ish. No?

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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See here.

In short: The O's would have to offer Cruz a QO (roughly a 1/13 deal), he'd have to turn it down, and someone else would have to sign him prior to next June, then they get a pick.

Great. Thank you, sir. I think I'd go that route (even if it ends up at 15) rather than offer a multi-year deal. If he turns down the QO, hopefully he does it knowing someone will give him a better deal that he would sign before next June. Otherwise, I'd think he'd accept the QO. The chances seem good the O's get something either way.

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