Cruz- would you try and extend him?

[OFFNY]

Again, hit him with a qualifying offer. If he accepts, we've got him for another year. If he doesn't, we get a pick. Win, win.

You don't extend an aging DH that's having a career year. You just don't.

If Duquette extends Cruz, I won't have a problem with it. I just won't.

[SteveO]

If Duquette extends Cruz, I won't have a problem with it. I just won't.

As unfair as it is I am still leery of giving a guy who has been busted before and could be suspended long term if it happened again a long term deal for big money.

I would not scream and shout if they did it but would prefer to see them go no more than 2 or 3 years. PEDS are just a reality of sports and I am sure there are numerous guys doing them who are not getting caught but once you are that incurs risk for any team that signs you and as such lowers the value by a decent amount. Especially in the first couple years after the suspension.

[OFFNY]

Too many baseball evaluations by stat geeks are made in a vacuum. You fail to notice how well liked he is and how the team reacts to his exploits. Overpay to keep the chemistry in tact if you have to. Don't fix what isn't broken. That being said, don't do something crazy, just pay him what he is worth at the end of the year, or sooner.

I don't think that Cruz wants to leave the Orioles.

And I don't think that the Oriole players want him to leave, either.

[OFFNY]

As unfair as it is I am still leery of giving a guy who has been busted before and could be suspended long term if it happened again a long term deal for big money.

I would not scream and shout if they did it, but would prefer to see them go no more than 2 or 3 years. PEDS are just a reality of sports and I am sure there are numerous guys doing them who are not getting caught but once you are that incurs risk for any team that signs you and as such lowers the value by a decent amount. Especially in the first couple years after the suspension.

2 or 3 years would be fine with me, also.

In fact, 2 or 3 years might be ideal.

4 might be one season too many.

[awannabegeek]

Too many baseball evaluations by stat geeks are made in a vacuum. You fail to notice how well liked he is and how the team reacts to his exploits. Overpay to keep the chemistry in tact if you have to. Don't fix what isn't broken. That being said, don't do something crazy, just pay him what he is worth at the end of the year or sooner.

Making evaluations with your heart isn't much better. Whether you think it's legitimate or not the Orioles have a budget that they operate within. That budget creates limitations. You don't allocate a significant level of resources simply because someone is "liked". You don't overpay for Chemistry, if you did McLouth and Jim Johnson would still be Orioles.

[DrungoHazewood]

Too many baseball evaluations by stat geeks are made in a vacuum. You fail to notice how well liked he is and how the team reacts to his exploits. Overpay to keep the chemistry in tact if you have to. Don't fix what isn't broken. That being said, don't do something crazy, just pay him what he is worth at the end of the year or sooner.

The only chemistry I'm overpaying for is the kind that's undetectable on a PED test. :wedge:

There is essentially nothing Nelson Cruz could do this season, short of announcing that he'll play for a Tim Wakefield contract (essentially a lifetime contract consisting of a series of below-market team options), that would make me sign him to a multi-year extension.

[hendu]

I don't think that Cruz wants to leave the Orioles.

And I don't think that the Oriole players want him to leave, either.

I don't disagree, but he acts this way wherever he is. Add to the fact that he was joking with Martin after he robbed him. Manny and Schoop do the Boomstick holster celebration. The whole Texas team did that.

However, Texas didn't want him to return, and I'm sure that the O's aren't opposed to the thought.

[Aglets]

The only chemistry I'm overpaying for is the kind that's undetectable on a PED test. :wedge:

There is essentially nothing Nelson Cruz could do this season, short of announcing that he'll play for a Tim Wakefield contract (essentially a lifetime contract consisting of a series of below-market team options), that would make me sign him to a multi-year extension.

Not even a 2 year deal? That seems kinda harsh Drungo. I think I'd be willing to go as far as 3 years, but i wouldn't go real high on the AAV if it had to go that far. I'd try to sign him to a 2 year deal somewhere in the 2/30 range (that admittedly, probably will not get it done).

Could you run one of your queries on guys who OPS over .900 at age 33 and see how they do at ages 34 and 35? I'm sure some of them crash but I would bet the majority don't fall off the map completely and still productive.

[itscbm5042]

4 years 60 million and I don't even bat an eye. You people are crazy saying you don't want to extend him past a qualifying offer and would rather have the pick and save the money? Seriously?! The guy is tailor made for the AL East and loves the clubhouse here and the guys around him, a huge power bat from the right side in the middle of our lineup. We won't have to give Davis or Wieters giant money because of the years they are having and Markakis' 17 mil comes off the books.

We have wanted a bat to pair with Jones/Davis for 2 years and now we have one that compliments them perfectly. You do what you can to extend him.

[Can_of_corn]

4 years 60 million and I don't even bat an eye. You people are crazy saying you don't want to extend him past a qualifying offer and would rather have the pick and save the money? Seriously?! The guy is tailor made for the AL East and loves the clubhouse here and the guys around him, a huge power bat from the right side in the middle of our lineup. We won't have to give Davis or Wieters giant money because of the years they are having and Markakis' 17 mil comes off the books.

We have wanted a bat to pair with Jones/Davis for 2 years and now we have one that compliments them perfectly. You do what you can to extend him.

So you are not worried that a DH only (in a perfect world) that is 33 is having a career year? This is someone who has eclipsed the 125 game mark ONCE in his career. And you are good with signing him until he is 37?

Did you want to sign Davis to a monster deal last summer? How would that be looking now?

[DrungoHazewood]

Not even a 2 year deal? That seems kinda harsh Drungo. I think I'd be willing to go as far as 3 years, but i wouldn't go real high on the AAV if it had to go that far. I'd try to sign him to a 2 year deal somewhere in the 2/30 range (that admittedly, probably will not get it done).

Could you run one of your queries on guys who OPS over .900 at age 33 and see how they do at ages 34 and 35? I'm sure some of them crash but I would bet the majority don't fall off the map completely and still productive.

Query was LF/RF/DH with career defensive value less than -5 runs and an OPS+ between 110-130 through age 33. Then OPS+ > 140 at age 33.

Very small return... Magglio. 2.1 win age 34, 0.6 wins rest of career. Josh Willingham, 0.6 wins at age 34, 1.1 so far this year. Jose Bautista, age 34 season ongoing, and doesn't quite fit the model.

Also include Chili Davis with a spike year at 34, he played well for several years after that. But that did coincide with the offensive explosion of 1994-95.

I could probably open up the query a bit, but there just aren't that many players who have an age-33/34 peak.

Edit: opened up the query a bit and got a hit on Mike Easler. He had a 0.4 win season at 34, 2.4 wins rest of career.

[Roll Tide]

I don't think that Cruz wants to leave the Orioles.

And I don't think that the Oriole players want him to leave, either.

f he'd sign a 3 year deal I'd be all in ...Not really concerned about the per year amount.

[BohKnowsBmore]

f he'd sign a 3 year deal I'd be all in ...Not really concerned about the per year amount.

I think the best of all worlds would be a three year deal with some sort of option for a 4th.

[itscbm5042]

I am not worried that a DH/LF (he isn't THAT bad people forget this he can make the routine plays and doesn't have the range of other LFs but we've been spoiled with Jones and Markakis - lots of teams don't have great OFs. He is having a career year but he will give you a minimum of 20 HRs even on a bad year and has a much higher ceiling as we are seeing, and with Davis struggling he is doing this with very little protection. Even at 33 he looks plenty athletic and almost ran out that triple, not the slowest on the team by any means. The second part is the business of baseball, would I like to have him for 3 years instead? Sure, but it will take 4 to extend him IMO. To retain your talent these days you have to pay for years maybe a bit beyond their prime. So that isn't the contract I want, it's the contract I think it will take and I'm comfortable giving. He is perfect for this lineup, where would we be without him?

[Can_of_corn]

I am not worried that a DH/LF (he isn't THAT bad people forget this he can make the routine plays and doesn't have the range of other LFs but we've been spoiled with Jones and Markakis - lots of teams don't have great OFs. He is having a career year but he will give you a minimum of 20 HRs even on a bad year and has a much higher ceiling as we are seeing, and with Davis struggling he is doing this with very little protection. Even at 33 he looks plenty athletic and almost ran out that triple, not the slowest on the team by any means. The second part is the business of baseball, would I like to have him for 3 years instead? Sure, but it will take 4 to extend him IMO. To retain your talent these days you have to pay for years maybe a bit beyond their prime. So that isn't the contract I want, it's the contract I think it will take and I'm comfortable giving. He is perfect for this lineup, where would we be without him?

Yea, he is kinda bad. And likely to get worse over the next 3-4 seasons. I will agree that he is not a complete butcher out there.

Jones and Markakis are not great outfielders, they are both bat first players. If you want to see a good outfielder the O's have one, his name is Lough.

Protection pretty much isn't an actual thing.