Is it a stretch to think that Joseph could replicate the offensive output that Wieters has averaged?

[weams]

Last year Caleb Joseph was 13th in the Eastern League in OPS, and 11 of the 12 players ahead of him were younger. Some by as much as seven years. He was clearly outplayed by Xander Bogaerts and Maikel Franco, who were both in the same league and 20 years old. Joseph also played more games at other positions than he did catcher. Coming into 2014 if someone had said Joseph would be, on a per-game basis while playing 100ish games, one of the most valuable catchers in baseball you would have been laughed off the messageboard.

It is very rare for someone who was a) drafted out of college and subsequently b) spent most of four years in AA, to then become a solid major league player.

So. It's a miracle?

[DrungoHazewood]

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I see that you don't feel he will improve much with experience. Most rookies either improve with experience ---or they are caught up with by the league. I look for Joseph to improve to the .700-.750 range. And then there is the framing debate. I think Joseph wins this hands-down

Most rookies aren't 28 years old (as MurphDogg previously stated). He is likely at or past his physical peak. Meaning that any gains he gets through experience will be offset by physical decline. I've seen no compelling evidence that delaying your rookie season also delays your peak or your decline years.

It's always possible that Joseph is one of these Willie Bloomquist types who somehow manage to hold onto their value much longer than is typical. Bloomquist was roughly replacement-level in his mid-20s, and he's still roughly replacement level at 36 or something. But that's unusual, not at all to be expected.

[DrungoHazewood]

So. It's a miracle?

Maybe the intervention of a minor deity.

[MurphDogg]

In the last 50 years there have been 14 non Japanese League position player rookies age 28 or older that accrued at least 2 WAR in their rookie season. Names you would recognize on this list include Wayne Kirby and David Newhan. Of those 14 players, only Casey Blake, Davey Lopes and Luke Scott accrued even 4 WAR total over the rest of their career. 5 of the 14 were sub-replacement level for the rest of their career. The odds of improving upon or even maintaining this level of production are not in Joseph's favor.

[Redskins Rick]

In the last 50 years there have been 14 non Japanese League position player rookies age 28 or older that accrued at least 2 WAR in their rookie season. Names you would recognize on this list include Wayne Kirby and David Newhan. Of those 14 players, only Casey Blake, Davey Lopes and Luke Scott accrued even 4 WAR total over the rest of their career. 5 of the 14 were sub-replacement level for the rest of their career. The odds of improving upon or even maintaining this level of production are not in Joseph's favor.

So you don't bet the World Series trophy on his repeating his thing again next year.

However, if he can duplicate his production next year in a part-time starter/backup role, depending on Wieter's rehab schedule, then that is a major blessing to enjoy.

[Can_of_corn]

The odds are against Joseph being this good again next year. Of course, the odds were even greater against him doing what he IS doing this year. Let's enjoy it while it lasts. He's having good AB's and playing solid defense. Does everone think that it's 100% that the Orioles don't pick up Nick Hundley's 5M team option for 2015? I would say the odds are greatly against it. That would certainly signal a future Wieters trade.

I think there would have to be serious issues with Wieters' rehab for them to pick up that option.

Unless of course they pick it up then flip him, I can see Dan doing that.

[Can_of_corn]

How easy would it be to flip Hundley with a 5M contract? I don't know. My thought on picking it up, would be that if they didn't envision Wieters being on next year's team and they wanted to go with Josepth/Hundley again. Picking up the option to me, would tip their hand towards trading Wieters once he shows other teams that his arm is healthy. Most likely, then don't pick up the option and head into next season with Wieters/Joseph.

I don't think it is likely, I just could see it happening. If Dan can squeeze a bit of extra value out of Hundley he will. Just like he traded JJ instead of non-tendering him.

I don't know if someone like the Rays would take on Hundley at 5 million.

[AdamK]

Caleb effin Joseph, man. Cap'n Caleb.

Nice to know we don't need to renew his contract this season and we can let things play out. Although I am compelled to send him a gift basket from all of us as a token of our appreciation.

The catcher situation (what to do with Wieters and who our other options may be) can unfold in the best possible way. If you are looking for a silver lining to losing Matt, that is it.

[Redskins Rick]

If Matt is slow coming back?

I hate to see Hundley sent elsewhere, that would leave us with Clevenger as a backup and that's a scary thought.

If Matt can DH/Catch some to prove his health, then maybe DD can work on a trade then.

[Roll Tide]

He should get Matts backup next season right?

[canonfaz]

Yeah. I would imagine that Matt will be doing a lot more DH'ing next year. Hopefully he comes into spring training full on 100% healthy and we can make a decision about Hundley at that time.

[DrungoHazewood]

I hate to see Hundley sent elsewhere, that would leave us with Clevenger as a backup and that's a scary thought.

There have to be other catchers among free agents, trade targets, six year minor league free agents, Rule 5ers, etc. I can't evaluate everyone's defense, but I can't believe there's a shortage of catchers who are decent defensively and have a fighting chance at OPSing .600.

[Il BuonO]

The O's will have to make a decision on Hundley long before ST. They will have to pick up, or not pick up his option probably sometime in November. If they pick it up they would probably be able to trade him. The question is would another team view Hundley as a starter or backup. I don't know too many backup catchers making 5M. The O's would then have to pick up salary just to move him.

Because of that they don't pick up the option.

[Il BuonO]

Probably. Only way the pick it up is if they plan to trade Wieters before OD next year.

Not happening. He's an unknown known.

[weams]

Not happening. He's an unknown known.

When no one knows what will be known, they rarely give anything known...for something unknown. Especially when they cost a bunch of money.