Chen vs Right-handed heavy Tigers lineup

[MrOrange82]

I'm fine with questioning everything. I'm not so fine with the attitude that the guy who's just managed the team to 270-some wins in three years is so blockheaded that he continually makes obviously idiotic moves with no justification. Every time Buck does something that doesn't work out we get a bunch of "well, told you that was dumb six months ago, but Buck ain't got the sense god gave an animal cracker and nobody listens to me."

If someone's never seen a stove before and that person winds up burning himself, you're not going to blame him for his mistake. If someone is obviously familiar with stoves/how they work and burns himself anyway, then you have to ask why he chose to place his hand on one.

Chen was bumped from a scheduled start this year against the Tigers precisely because of what we saw today: the combination of Chen's weaknesses against righties and the Tigers' strengths against lefties. In fact, the O's were so eager to move Chen from that start that they threw Gausman on just three days' rest to make sure Chen avoided the Tigers. And, IIRC, that wasn't the last time that Chen was moved around in 2014 to avoid an unfavorable matchup.

But they started him today, anyway. That's the issue, if there is one. I don't care all that much because I was at the game today, it was electric, and the O's won. That said, it's not exactly mystifying why someone/anyone would question Buck's decision to start Chen. Because he made precisely the opposite decision at other points this season.

[DrungoHazewood]

If someone's never seen a stove before and that person winds up burning himself, you're not going to blame him for his mistake. If someone is obviously familiar with stoves/how they work and burns himself anyway, then you have to ask why he chose to place his hand on one.

Chen was bumped from a scheduled start this year against the Tigers precisely because of what we saw today: the combination of Chen's weaknesses against righties and the Tigers' strengths against lefties. In fact, the O's were so eager to move Chen from that start that they threw Gausman on just three days' rest to make sure Chen avoided the Tigers. And, IIRC, that wasn't the last time that Chen was moved around in 2014 to avoid an unfavorable matchup.

But they started him today, anyway. That's the issue, if there is one. I don't care all that much because I was at the game today, it was electric, and the O's won. That said, it's not exactly mystifying why someone/anyone would question Buck's decision to start Chen. Because he made precisely the opposite decision at other points this season.

If the comments were something like "I wonder why Buck is starting Chen despite his platoon splits?" that would be fine. But they're more like "Buck is a Major League manager and he's stupider than 445 guys on Orioles Hangout, what's up with that?"

[MrOrange82]

If the comments were something like "I wonder why Buck is starting Chen despite his platoon splits?" that would be fine. But they're more like "Buck is a Major League manager and he's stupider than 445 guys on Orioles Hangout, what's up with that?"

If those people were calling Buck stupid, they're simply wrong. If they were calling the decision to start Chen stupid, they have a point. Especially since Buck from several weeks/months ago seemed to agree with them, and especially given Chen's and the Tigers' respective splits.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Chen was bumped from a scheduled start this year against the Tigers precisely because of what we saw today: the combination of Chen's weaknesses against righties and the Tigers' strengths against lefties.

Funny you should mention that. Because at the time, you actually argued with me that Chen was actually very good against LHP this year and the Tigers so called strength against LHP was exaggerated, if not nonsense. Also another factor at that time was they wanted to get Chen an extra days rest, where he usually performs well.

As has already been stated, Buck can read the stats and I'm quite sure there were a number of factors why he went the way he did on this one today. Chen being rested, Gausman in the backup role, allowing the pen to rest etc. and Chen actually looked terrific for 3 innings.

Anyways, I don't think anyone has an issue with questioning the decision (or Buck) and that was certainly done and discussed prior to the game. I'm only questioning some of the over the top rhetoric when things don't go well and that includes some of the stuff over the last 2 weeks of the season. I suppose it's all good though. People have become rather used to winning.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think the plan was to go to Gausman earlier but the 5 runs happened in the span of literally 10 pitches. I think Buck got ambushed a little too quick.

Yeah, pretty much.

[MrOrange82]

Funny you should mention that. Because at the time, you actually argued with me that Chen was actually very good against LHP this year and the Tigers so called strength against LHP was exaggerated, if not nonsense. Also another factor at that time was they wanted to get Chen an extra days rest, where he usually performs well.

As has already been stated, Buck can read the stats and I'm quite sure there were a number of factors why he went the way he did on this one today. Chen being rested, Gausman in the backup role, allowing the pen to rest etc. and Chen actually looked terrific for 3 innings.

Anyways, I don't think anyone has an issue with questioning the decision (or Buck) and that was certainly done and discussed prior to the game. I'm only questioning some of the over the top rhetoric when things don't go well and that includes some of the stuff over the last 2 weeks of the season. I suppose it's all good though. People have become rather used to winning.

Yeah, and you argued the opposite. Of course, at the time, the numbers I quoted were actually accurate/true to that point in time. Tell me, did the numbers shift in favor of your original argument between now and then?

Should I refrain from cheering/jeering certain players because I was against/for their FA signings, too? Or is it fair to simply point out, without being a smartass, that Buck himself agreed with the idea that Chen shouldn't start against the Tigers early on (BEFORE the numbers so strongly supported his position), and yet he chose to go completely against that for today's game, thus making the decision look pretty stupid (both at the time it was made, and in retrospect)?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yeah, and you argued the opposite. Of course, at the time, the numbers I quoted were actually accurate/true to that point in time. Tell me, did the numbers shift in favor of your original argument between now and then?

Should I refrain from cheering/jeering certain players because I was against/for their FA signings, too? Or is it fair to simply point out, without being a smartass, that Buck himself agreed with the idea that Chen shouldn't start against the Tigers early on (BEFORE the numbers so strongly supported his position), and yet he chose to go completely against that for today's game, thus making the decision look pretty stupid (both at the time it was made, and in retrospect)?

No, the numbers for Chen normalized as I would have expected them. But at the time the Tigers numbers were still very good against LHP and you argued with me that they weren't. That was puzzling, but yeah that's done.

Like I said, I (and I'm sure others) don't have an issue with criticism and it was certainly a questionable move today (which i was actually ok with). I just think some the post facto "Buck is an idiot" rhetoric has become over the top, and that was my only real point here. I guess that's to be expected to some degree though. Everybody wants to win badly.

[MrOrange82]

No, the numbers for Chen normalized as I would have expected them. But at the time the Tigers numbers were still very good against LHP and you argued with me that they weren't. That was puzzling, but yeah that's done.

Like I said, I (and I'm sure others) don't have an issue with criticism and it was certainly a questionable move today (which i was actually ok with). I just think some the post facto "Buck is an idiot" rhetoric has become over the top, and that was my only real point here. I guess that's to be expected to some degree though. Everybody wants to win badly.

The Tigers' numbers at the time were being carried almost entirely by VMart and 2-3 other players to much lesser degrees. Regardless, my argument back then wasn't that Chen would've been good - it was that his numbers weren't such that bumping him and throwing Gausman into an emergency start situation, coming off an illness, on short rest made sense.

But if Buck was right to move Chen back then, Chen (and the Tigers) has done absolutely nothing in the interim to support the idea that starting him today was smart.

[CA-ORIOLE]

But if Buck was right to move Chen back then, Chen (and the Tigers) has done absolutely nothing in the interim to support the idea that starting him today was smart.

I've summarized reasons why the move may have made sense. I'm sure there are others that are less obvious. It didn't work out that well. Got it. I think Buck and the coaches know what they are doing and had a plan today and that plan related to the rest of the series as well. Criticize away, but enough with the over the top "Buck is an idiot" nonsense is all that I am saying.

[MrOrange82]

I've summarized reasons why the move may have made sense. I'm sure there are others that are less obvious. It didn't work out that well. Got it. I think Buck and the coaches know what they are doing and had a plan today and that plan related to the rest of the series as well. Criticize away, but enough with the over the top "Buck is an idiot" nonsense is all that I am saying.

Like I said in response to Drungo, I agree that calling Buck stupid (as some kind of overall appraisal) is completely unsupportable. That said, smart people make mistakes, and you don't have to be generally smarter and/or more capable than Buck to call today's spade a spade. If there was some kind of plan or deeper justification to Chen's start, I'd like to hear it, but simply leaning on the idea that Buck's a smart dude with smart assistants who together make plans isn't (and shouldn't be) good enough to defend a pretty questionable tactical decision.

Just as it's unfair and untrue to call Buck an idiot, it's pretty hollow to imply that Buck's decision to start Chen wasn't stupid simply because the idea came from a smart, well-prepared person.

[DrungoHazewood]

There are many choices in baseball that have multiple "right" answers. Correct decisions often result in bad outcomes. I don't believe that a decision is stupid based on the outcome, or whether the decision appeared intuitively incorrect to an observer.

It's plausible that Buck's decision to start Chen was defensible and not stupid despite the outcome and the evidence available to fans.

[MrOrange82]

There are many choices in baseball that have multiple "right" answers. Correct decisions often result in bad outcomes. I don't believe that a decision is stupid based on the outcome, or whether the decision appeared intuitively incorrect to an observer.

It's plausible that Buck's decision to start Chen was defensible and not stupid despite the outcome and the evidence available to fans.

Anything is possible, but the absence of potential evidence doesn't make for much of a counterargument, and it doesn't erode arguments that are based on available evidence. There's more than enough on hand for someone to reasonably say that the decision to start Chen was dumb. If there are other pieces of information out there that would contradict that assertion, fine, but they haven't been revealed/explained to this point.

In other words, if someone says "X and Y = stupid," you can't justifiably say that he's wrong because "maybe Z, even though I don't actually know what Z is."

[CA-ORIOLE]

Anything is possible, but the absence of potential evidence doesn't make for much of a counterargument, and it doesn't erode arguments that are based on available evidence. There's more than enough on hand for someone to reasonably say that the decision to start Chen was dumb. If there are other pieces of information out there that would contradict that assertion, fine, but they haven't been revealed/explained to this point.

In other words, if someone says "X and Y = stupid," you can't justifiably say that he's wrong because "maybe Z, even though I don't actually know what Z is."

But there is "potential evidence". I have presented them (I'm not going o re-summarize them for you every post) and there are likely other factors and considerations less evident and/or unknown which I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to Buck and his staff. You have chosen to ignore or mitigate that.

Anyways, have the last word.

[Tony-OH]

Second lowest FIP, 185 ip +, and second lowest WHIP on the team. This team does not have a clear cut #1, but then again I said he is arguably there best pitcher.

Pushing a guy back during a 162 season is protection. Leaving him off the roster and then coming back to him to pitch in the ALCS and hopefully the World Series is benching him.

Yep. Chen might not have been a great matchup but for three innings it worked and ultimately, if the Orioles win this series, Chen will be needed in that next round.

[MrOrange82]

But there is "potential evidence". I have presented them (I'm not going o re-summarize them for you every post) and there are likely other factors and considerations less evident and/or unknown which I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to Buck and his staff. You have chosen to ignore or mitigate that.

Anyways, have the last word.

You've said a couple of times that you summarized the alleged evidence in favor of starting Chen. I went back through all of your posts in this thread, and the only line I could find that provided any justification for Chen's start (apart from saying that you trust Buck/his staff) is: "Chen being rested, Gausman in the backup role, allowing the pen to rest etc. and Chen actually looked terrific for 3 innings."

Chen being rested is an argument. I don't think it's a good argument, but it's at least a tally for that side of the scale. Gausman in the backup role doesn't say much of anything. Gausman could have started, and Chen could have been in the backup role. Or Chen could have been avoided entirely. Any number of other possibilities, really...but regardless, the fact that Gausman exists isn't actually an argument that counsels in favor of starting Chen against the Tigers. Allowing the bullpen to rest also doesn't say anything in re: why starting Chen was a good idea (for lots of reasons, including the fact that he didn't actually let the bullpen rest). And it should go without saying that looking good for three innings, in hindsight, and then getting shelled doesn't make the decision look any better, in hindsight.

The funny thing is, I don't think we actually disagree. I think the decision to start Chen was stupid. I don't think Buck is stupid, in general or even frequently, because he started Chen. But that was a pretty dumb move (that worked out only because the O's of 2014 have a knack for spitting on the odds).