Fangraphs crowdsourcing: Markakis 3/$33 mm, Cruz 3/$45 mm, Miller 3/$24 mm

[Frobby]

So far:

Hanley Ramirez: 5/$90 mm predicted, 4/$88 mm actual.

Pablo Sandoval: 5/$80 mm predicted, 5/$90 actual (announcement pending)

Russell Martin: 4/$56 mm predicted, 5/$82 mm actual

Victor Martinez: 3/$45 mm predicted, 4/$68 mm actual

Adam LaRoche: 2/$20 mm predicted, 2/$25 mm actual

Billy Butler: 2/$18 mm predicted, 3/$30 mm actual

Michael Cuddyer: 2/$18 mm predicted, 2/$21 mm actual

Koji Uehara: 1/$8 mm predicted, 2/$18 mm actual

A.J. Burnett: 1/$10 mm predicted, 1/$8.5 mm actual

Pretty aggressive market, but I guess it stands to reason that the deals that get done early tend to be generous.

[Frobby]

Add Cruz, 4/$57 mm as opposed to 3/$45 mm from fangraphs' crowdsourcing.

[Frobby]

Updated list

Hanley Ramirez: 5/$90 mm predicted, 4/$88 mm actual.

Pablo Sandoval: 5/$80 mm predicted, 5/$90 actual (announcement pending)

Russell Martin: 4/$56 mm predicted, 5/$82 mm actual

Victor Martinez: 3/$45 mm predicted, 4/$68 mm actual

Adam LaRoche: 2/$20 mm predicted, 2/$25 mm actual

Billy Butler: 2/$18 mm predicted, 3/$30 mm actual

Michael Cuddyer: 2/$18 mm predicted, 2/$21 mm actual

Koji Uehara: 1/$8 mm predicted, 2/$18 mm actual

A.J. Burnett: 1/$10 mm predicted, 1/$8.5 mm actual

Nelson Cruz: 3/$45 mm predicted, 4/$57 mm actual

Nick Markakis: 3/$33 mm predicted, 4/$44 mm actual

Andrew Miller: 3/$24 mm predicted, 4/$36 mm actual

Jon Lester: 6/$132 mm predicted, 6/$155 mm actual

Dave Robertson: 3/$30 mm predicted, 4/$46 mm actual

Ervin Santana: 3/$39 mm predicted, 4/$55 mm actual

Melky Cabrera: 4/$52 mm predicted, 3/$45 mm actual

Francisco Liriano: 3/$36 mm predicted, 3/$39 mm actual

Brandon McCarthy: 3/$36 mm predicted, 4/$48 mm actual

Jason Hammel: 3/$27 mm predicted, 2/$20 mm actual

Kendrys Morales: 1/$6 mm predicted, 2/$17 mm actual

Total: 60/$805 ($13.42 mm/yr ave) predicted, 68/$992.5 mm ($14.60 mm/yr ave) actual. Seems like teams have been aggressive about both length of contract and AAV.

[hoosiers]

Frobby, your numbers and conclusion are off. There are too many guys busting the prediction on the upside for the numbers to be so close on the AAV. I think the prediction AAV is closer to $13.4M and the actual is closer to $14.6M.

The predictions benefit from the aggregation of these numbers, IMO. Enough players busted through the prediction for me to give the author(s) credit for good analysis.

[Frobby]

Frobby, your numbers and conclusion are off. There are too many guys busting the prediction on the upside for the numbers to be so close on the AAV. I think the prediction AAV is closer to $13.4M and the actual is closer to $14.6M.

The predictions benefit from the aggregation of these numbers, IMO. Enough players busted through the prediction for me to give the author(s) credit for good analysis.

That's what I get for adding the numbers by hand. You are correct, and I've edited my post accordingly.