Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

[mdbdotcom]

3.5 cumulative WAR over the 3 most recent seasons will tend to lower expectations about a player. Nick may be underrated at this point, but hardly "vastly". I'm also skeptical about Casey Stearn's "biggest bang for the buck" notion. I still believe Nick is more likely to get a bigger, and possibly longer, contract than he deserves, and it will be from the Orioles.

Stearns and Bowden agree that Nick is the perfect replacement of Torii Hunter in Detroit. They are really talking that up.

[DrungoHazewood]

This all depends on whether you are willing to throw out 2013, when he was coming back from thumb and wrist injuries. He was very good in 2012, and pretty good in 2014.

If you look at his last 6 seasons, he's been extremely consistent, with 2013 being the one outlier.

I'm willing to consider his 2013 an outlier. But I also know that almost everyone gets less healthy as they go through their 30s. A lot of players' outliers in their 20s become more like the norm in their 30s.

[mdbdotcom]

This all depends on whether you are willing to throw out 2013, when he was coming back from thumb and wrist injuries. He was very good in 2012, and pretty good in 2014.

If you look at his last 6 seasons, he's been extremely consistent, with 2013 being the one outlier.

Markakis had 3 surgeries in 2012: abdominal in January, hamate in May, and thumb in September. If he does come back to the O's, I hope he does some speed work in the off-season. He won't ever be fast, but he's got to be able to run better than he did this season. His lack of speed really lessens what he's able to contribute.

[Prayin4Reign]

Today's fan would have ushered Brooks out and called for his head the instant he finished the '75 season hitting .201.

Actually they would have pointed to his 1969 season as the beginning of the end as he only managed an OPS+ of 92. Plus he was positively ancient at the age of 32 so his defense would likely begin slipping soon if it hadn't already. His .298 OBP is only going to get worse so it is best to trade him now while he still had some value.

How true.

[fearthenoodle]

I'm willing to consider his 2013 an outlier. But I also know that almost everyone gets less healthy as they go through their 30s. A lot of players' outliers in their 20s become more like the norm in their 30s.

All of that is definitely fair. That's why I'd prefer a 3-year deal to 4, and at $10MM or less per year. I think he can probably exceed the value of any deal in that range, but anything beyond that would be questionable at best.

[weams]

Ken Rosenthal says it is going to get done.

[Can_of_corn]

Why does it have to be four? How has Nick earned four more years after his last four?

Can they sign him for two with some options?

[mdbdotcom]

Why does it have to be four? How has Nick earned four more years after his last four?

Can they sign him for two with some options?

Maybe that's what they are doing. Or, maybe three plus an option.

[Guest]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Adam Jones says he talked to Markakis last night. He said he bleeds orange. But understands it's a business.</p>— Brett Hollander (@BrettHollander) <a href="

">November 5, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Jones "I believe something will get done... Hopefully Markakis is to my left for the rest of both of our careers." (2/2)</p>— Brett Hollander (@BrettHollander) <a href="

">November 5, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[24fps]

This all depends on whether you are willing to throw out 2013, when he was coming back from thumb and wrist injuries. He was very good in 2012, and pretty good in 2014.

If you look at his last 6 seasons, he's been extremely consistent, with 2013 being the one outlier.

If you look at the last four seasons, his OPS+ has been 106, 126, 88, 107. You could just as well argue that 2012 (126 OPS+) was the outlier if you restrict the analysis to the previous four years - something not unreasonable to do for a player entering his 30's.

I disagree that Nick has been extremely consistent over the last six seasons. His OPS+ has been 108, 120, 106, 126, 88, 107, average 108. Extremely consistent? Eeehhh... Politely above average most of the time, sure.

[crawjo]

If you look at the last four seasons, his OPS+ has been 106, 126, 88, 107. You could just as well argue that 2012 (126 OPS+) was the outlier if you restrict the analysis to the previous four years - something not unreasonable to do for a player entering his 30's.

I disagree that Nick has been extremely consistent over the last six seasons. His OPS+ has been 108, 120, 106, 126, 88, 107, average 108. Extremely consistent? Eeehhh... Politely above average most of the time, sure.

It's not hard to conclude that 2012 and 2013 were both outliers, and that Markakis is "actually" a consistent, 108ish OPS+ hitter with limited range in right field but a very strong and accurate arm. I don't see why we have to get this far into the weeds. I think most of us know the kind of ballplayer Markakis is at this point. It's just a question of how much you value that kind of performance. As I have already said, I would overpay for Markakis for purely sentimental reasons, and I'm not ashamed of saying so.

[24fps]

It's not hard to conclude that 2012 and 2013 were both outliers, and that Markakis is "actually" a consistent, 108ish OPS+ hitter with limited range in right field but a very strong and accurate arm. I don't see why we have to get this far into the weeds. I think most of us know the kind of ballplayer Markakis is at this point. It's just a question of how much you value that kind of performance. As I have already said, I would overpay for Markakis for purely sentimental reasons, and I'm not ashamed of saying so.

Fair enough. As far how much value is appropriate to place on Nick, I do think that when the number get past 3 years at $10-11 million per, a more critical eye is warranted. So far the speculation in the media has the number considerably north of that.

FWIW Nick is one of my favorite players as well.

[brianod]

The problem the Orioles face is that there is no replacement. In house or via free agency. So, they should overpay. But, not by too much. 4/40, 3/36, something like that. I think he would sign at those numbers, we need to get it done considering that Cruz is going to be overpaid. We need one of those guys, can't afford to lose both.

[AlbionHero]

The problem the Orioles face is that there is no replacement. In house or via free agency.

And thats where I and many others will disagree... I feel we have a better replacement for Markakis than almost anyone else we could lose on the team. I would go as far as to say I believe a Lough/RH batter platoon could out produce Markakis.

[brianod]

And thats where I and many others will disagree... I feel we have a better replacement for Markakis than almost anyone else we could lose on the team. I would go as far as to say I believe a Lough/RH batter platoon could out produce Markakis.

I really like Lough and think he was under used last year. That being said, that feeling is counter to Bucks feeling. Obviously, if Buck thought he could start or platoon, he would have started or been platooned. So, where are we? A bunch of fans willing to give Lough 400 abs when buck had him and didn't do that. Who knows more Buck or you and me?