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Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)


Greg

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Giving him a QO is a far better option than giving him a long term contract, in my opinion. I'd rather pay him 15 for one year over 40 over 4.

That would be paying him 17.3 for one. So essentially if he is getting 40 minus the 2 million buyout, its only 23 for three years of him. When you do that math, it's not SO awful.

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Given your argurment why not just make a QO

He will either accept it which gives you another year to "develop" his replacement

or he declines it and you have a top 40 draft pick to draft his replacement.

We need to sign/replace Cruz, we can't afford Nick at 18 million and we can't afford to lose him

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Of the players with qualifying PA only two had exactly 8 WAR for the past 4 years. Jed Lowrie and Nick Swisher. Nelson Cruz BTW had a 7.8 WAR. At 350 PA Jay Bruce, Ron Gomes, Anthony Rendon, Jose Altuve, Nick Swisher, Jed Lowrie, Brett Lawrie, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Chris Young have been worth between 8.1 WAR and 7.8. Not sure if any of them made league minimum during that time.

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We keep looking at free agents and thinking, well they suck this year, so we'll live with someone this year and hope to get a free agent next year. Bottom line about free agents is that they are all old and overpriced. You can't go that route any more. Next year, they will be old and over priced and they will continue to be old and over priced until such time as the bargaining agreement between players and owners changes. So, the answer is to sign Nick and develop a right fielder.

All those who want our window to be wide should focus on player development and drafting. That is our only shot. Keep Nick, he's better than anyone besides Cabrera and do we really want to go there?

Maybe Yastrzemski is ready in 2-3 years, that would be nice.

The first part of your post almost reads like a reason not to sign Markakis. The "sign Nick" part actually surprised me.

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Of the players with qualifying PA only two had exactly 8 WAR for the past 4 years. Jed Lowrie and Nick Swisher. Nelson Cruz BTW had a 7.8 WAR. At 350 PA Jay Bruce, Ron Gomes, Anthony Rendon, Jose Altuve, Nick Swisher, Jed Lowrie, Brett Lawrie, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Chris Young have been worth between 8.1 WAR and 7.8. Not sure if any of them made league minimum during that time.

Altuve and Lowrie did, Rendon is making 1.8 a year from his initial contract.

I was including folks like Donaldson, Stanton, Machado and Trout who are well over 8 WAR.

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Here's where I think there is a fallacy in a lot of people's logic. 2.0 WAR is about average for a major league starting position player in a given season. But being an average position player year in and year out is not that easy. Over the last four years, only 116 position players have accumulated 8.0 fWAR. That's fewer than four per team. Therefore, players who can produce 8 WAR in four years have a lot of value. (By the way, I'm not saying I'm confident that Nick Markakis will produce 8 WAR over the next four seasons. I'm just making a point about the value of a consistent player.)

How many of those 116 were over the age of 30 all four years?

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I can't help but think Angelos is telling Duquette what to do if he signs him to a 4 a year contract. I cant' see Dan doing this on his own.

So if Duquette makes a move you agree with, you give him the credit, but if you don't agree, it's PGA's fault.:) I am no fan of PGA, but I think these decisions are his to make. I could see Buck pushing hard to sign Nick, more than Angelos. By most accounts, PGA has given DD a free rein. I could be wrong.

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Like I said. In a bad year that could really be under .300. Which is completely unacceptable. This team needs Nick.

To optimize Nick, they need to bat him 2nd behind a leadoff hitter with a good OBP who can be more aggressive on the bases and give him a couple of days off each month to keep him fresh. In the right circumstances, Nick can be more valuable than he has been in recent years.

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How many of those 116 were over the age of 30 all four years?

I get 116 names when I don't filter by age, but for some reason, when I do filter by age I only get 90. So, here is a breakdown (age range is for what age the player was in 2014):

18-25: 18

26-29: 45

30-33: 20

34-44: 7

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There is also a risk in letting a player like Nick leave. The Orioles keep Hardy for 3 more years so they can go cheap elsewhere? I get all the concerns about Nick but I don't want to go into 2015 counting on all of DeAza, Pearce and Lough to produce. The Orioles window is now and we don't have the position player talent in the minors to replace him.

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