Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

[eddie83]

What it really needs is somebody better than Nick.

And that player is who?, and at what cost?

[DrungoHazewood]

There is also a risk in letting a player like Nick leave. The Orioles keep Hardy for 3 more years so they can go cheap elsewhere? I get all the concerns about Nick but I don't want to go into 2015 counting on all of DeAza, Pearce and Lough to produce. The Orioles window is now and we don't have the position player talent in the minors to replace him.

There's risk in counting on Markakis to produce 2-win seasons through a multi-year contract. He's one year removed from a replacement-level season. He's 31. Almost everyone loses value as they move into their 30s, and Markakis' baseline is (charitably) average.

[Aristotelian]

And that player is who?, and at what cost?

I would like us to take a very close look at Aoki. About the same OBP as Nick (.353 career), hits lefties, but brings much better speed and defense. The last three years he is producing 2.5 rWAR per year, about double Nick.

Cuddyer on a one year contract or just going with De Aza for half the cost are also options.

Regardless, I am just saying that we should not make a 4-year commitment to a declining player on the basis of .006 team OBP points. If Nick is not the answer, I would rather make a value play that allows us to fill our other gaps, such as bullpen and DH.

[eddie83]

There's risk in counting on Markakis to produce 2-win seasons through a multi-year contract. He's one year removed from a replacement-level season. He's 31. Almost everyone loses value as they move into their 30s, and Markakis' baseline is (charitably) average.

You are correct but there is also risk in thinking that cheaper options will produce as well. Giving those players more time also weakens the bench. I would rather see a player like Lough get a lot of playing time out of necessity then hand him 500 at bats, same with Pearce. I would keep DeAza and Nick and let Buck figure out the rest. If we could get a player like Fowler then let DeAza walk.

The Orioles payroll should be expanding now in this window. I see contracts with risk but nothing like what the Phillies have done.

[Redskins Rick]

According to some on OH, Nick is washed up, slow and no power, and shouldn't be resigned.

If all of this was true, then he wouldn't be on the FA radar as other teams kick the tires on the FA market.

[eddie83]

I would like us to take a very close look at Aoki. About the same OBP as Nick (.353 career), hits lefties, but brings much better speed and defense. The last three years he is producing 2.5 rWAR per year, about double Nick.

Cuddyer on a one year contract or just going with De Aza for half the cost are also options.

Regardless, I am just saying that we should not make a 4-year commitment to a declining player on the basis of .006 team OBP points. If Nick is not the answer, I would rather make a value play that allows us to fill our other gaps, such as bullpen and DH.

Fair points. Right or wrong I don't see the money for Nick being saved for a rainy day. I don't think the Orioles ability to go after big names or keep someone like Wieters is being compromised. I also don't think keeping Cruz plays into Nick either.

[DrungoHazewood]

You are correct but there is also risk in thinking that cheaper options will produce as well. Giving those players more time also weakens the bench. I would rather see a player like Lough get a lot of playing time out of necessity then hand him 500 at bats, same with Pearce. I would keep DeAza and Nick and let Buck figure out the rest. If we could get a player like Fowler then let DeAza walk.

The Orioles payroll should be expanding now in this window. I see contracts with risk but nothing like what the Phillies have done.

Really, what's the risk in replacing Markakis with a platoon of far cheaper players? You're counting on Nick producing two wins. Even if you replace him with a zero that's a two-win hit. If you cobble together a platoon of Pearce/De Aza/Lough I think it's very low risk that you'll lose more than a win, and some upside that you'll get more productivity. And 100% certainty that you'll save yourself ~$5M a year that can be put to use elsewhere.

[DrungoHazewood]

According to some on OH, Nick is washed up, slow and no power, and shouldn't be resigned.

If all of this was true, then he wouldn't be on the FA radar as other teams kick the tires on the FA market.

There are options between terrible and awesome. Nick is an average MLB RFer in his early 30s. He's looking for a free agent contract. Depending on his wants he may price himself out of what's reasonable for a mid-market team. All teams don't have the same needs and budgets.

I'll be reasonably happy and reasonably optimistic if Nick resigns to a reasonable deal with some escape clauses. But anything like MLBTraderumors has been floating (4/48?!) and I can't see a way that works out in favor of the team.

[eddie83]

According to some on OH, Nick is washed up, slow and no power, and shouldn't be resigned.

If all of this was true, then he wouldn't be on the FA radar as other teams kick the tires on the FA market.

I have concerns about him but I don't trust our other options in house to be any better. Boston I thought at the time overpaid for a bunch of players in 2013 but that provided them with a team full of depth. Last year they banked on young kids and it blew up in their face . I would rather spend some money so we have depth in our roster.

[Reboulet'sStache]

According to some on OH, Nick is washed up, slow and no power, and shouldn't be resigned.

If all of this was true, then he wouldn't be on the FA radar as other teams kick the tires on the FA market.

Not necessarily true. Other teams have more money. Their dollars don't have to go as far as the O's. If they want to pay 10 or 11 million a year for 4 years to get that 2 WAR, it makes more economic sense for them.

[Redskins Rick]

Not necessarily true. Other teams have more money. Their dollars don't have to go as far as the O's. If they want to pay 10 or 11 million a year for 4 years to get that 2 WAR' date=' it makes more economic sense for them.[/quote']

The Orioles are already paying him 15 million.

Not that he should get that, but this team can spend money.

[eddie83]

Really, what's the risk in replacing Markakis with a platoon of far cheaper players? You're counting on Nick producing two wins. Even if you replace him with a zero that's a two-win hit. If you cobble together a platoon of Pearce/De Aza/Lough I think it's very low risk that you'll lose more than a win, and some upside that you'll get more productivity. And 100% certainty that you'll save yourself ~$5M a year that can be put to use elsewhere.

And if one of those players is a bust or gets hurt then what? This isn't Oakland or Tampa. You don't want to spend more to help minimize the risk of just missing out on the postseason? That money savings for Nick isn't going to bring in impact talent. If Pearce gets hurt next year and DeAza struggles with Nick gone then what are the Orioles going to do? I don't want to take that risk.

[Reboulet'sStache]

The Orioles are already paying him 15 million.

Not that he should get that, but this team can spend money.

I'm not sure why paying him too much before should factor into how much or whether we should sign him going forward?

[DrungoHazewood]

The Orioles are already paying him 15 million.

Not that he should get that, but this team can spend money.

But does it make sense? The Yanks spent a ton of money on decent guys in their 30s, and found out just how quickly they can age.

[Reboulet'sStache]

And if one of those players is a bust or gets hurt then what? This isn't Oakland or Tampa. You don't want to spend more to help minimize the risk of just missing out on the postseason? That money savings for Nick isn't going to bring in impact talent. If Pearce gets hurt next year and DeAza struggles with Nick gone then what are the Orioles going to do? I don't want to take that risk.

Is Markakis the one past 30 year old that we don't have to worry about injuries with?