Would you have matched SEA offer to keep Cruz an Oriole?

[BohKnowsBmore]

One way or another, we've hit 210+ homers three years in a row. Wieters, Machado, Davis, Schoop and Hardy are all good bets to hit more homers in 2015 than they did in 2014. It's no certainty that we can make up for losing Cruz, but I think the chances are decent enough, depending on what else we do this offseason.

I think there's a decent chance AJ hits somewhere in the low to mid 30s as well. Certainly more likely than his HR total going down IMO.

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[scOtt]

Shoulda made it a public poll.

[weams]

Shoulda made it a public poll.

You know where my vote went.

[Oriole1940]

Not  now, but at the time, yes. I was never so sure about a decision in my life.  For years I had admired Cruz and considered him a Home Run machine with a real decent BA.  And it proved another point that I have learned in life.  A mistake, even a small one, when trying to correct it,  oft times leads to a snowballing effect of mistakes , which are way more damaging that the first one.  I do not know if anyone else has noticed this real life truism.. .  Had Cruz been kept, Trumbo would not have been necessary.  And the rest is history as they say.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

Not  now, but at the time, yes. I was never so sure about a decision in my life.  For years I had admired Cruz and considered him a Home Run machine with a real decent BA.  And it proved another point that I have learned in life.  A mistake, even a small one, when trying to correct it,  oft times leads to a snowballing effect of mistakes , which are way more damaging that the first one.  I do not know if anyone else has noticed this real life truism.. .  Had Cruz been kept, Trumbo would not have been necessary.  And the rest is history as they say.  

I'm looking forward to watching the pick play.

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

Not  now, but at the time, yes. I was never so sure about a decision in my life.  For years I had admired Cruz and considered him a Home Run machine with a real decent BA.  And it proved another point that I have learned in life.  A mistake, even a small one, when trying to correct it,  oft times leads to a snowballing effect of mistakes , which are way more damaging that the first one.  I do not know if anyone else has noticed this real life truism.. .  Had Cruz been kept, Trumbo would not have been necessary.  And the rest is history as they say.  

Although that is true, Trumbo would also have not been necessary if oriole management had had more faith in Mancini.

[atomic]

On 12/1/2014 at 4:13 PM, atomic said:

Sure why not. I would have signed Cruz to a 3 year 50 million dollar deal so the extra year would be 7 million. Of course he won't do well playing in Seattle. Like I said before it isn't my money.

As Frobby likes to bring up my bad predictions... you will notice I was right in Cruz case and Frobby was wrong.

[El_Duderino]

The Os paid all the wrong people from that 2014 team.

[LookinUp]

On 12/1/2014 at 7:52 PM, scOtt said:

Shoulda made it a public poll.

Yeah. Wish I knew how I voted, if I voted. I didn’t post in this thread.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

As Frobby likes to bring up my bad predictions... you will notice I was right in Cruz case and Frobby was wrong.

Can’t win ‘em all.    But I’ll keep betting against players being better at 34-37 than they were at 30-33.    I feel I’ll be right more often than wrong.   

[DrungoHazewood]

To my dying breath I will consider the Cruz signing a GM litmus test.  If you're happy to sign 34-year-old DHs coming off career years to a multi-year deals you're not the kind of GM I want running my team.  Most Hall of Famers wouldn't have been good signings on those terms.  95%+ of all players are less valuable in their 30s than their 20s.  Nelson Cruz is a GIGANTIC outlier.  Not one in 100 players will have his career trajectory.  The only way a deal like Cruz' is a good bet is if you know that he has access to some kind of fountain of youth and assume that if he's caught the suspension will be without pay.

Mark Trumbo was a similar signing, just on a smaller deal, and worked out more typically for players of this type.  Which is to say very poorly.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

To my dying breath I will consider the Cruz signing a GM litmus test.  If you're happy to sign 34-year-old DHs coming off career years to a multi-year deals you're not the kind of GM I want running my team.  Most Hall of Famers wouldn't have been good signings on those terms.  95%+ of all players are less valuable in their 30s than their 20s.  Nelson Cruz is a GIGANTIC outlier.  Not one in 100 players will have his career trajectory.  The only way a deal like Cruz' is a good bet is if you know that he has access to some kind of fountain of youth and assume that if he's caught the suspension will be without pay.

Mark Trumbo was a similar signing, just on a smaller deal, and worked out more typically for players of this type.  Which is to say very poorly.

Trumbo was even younger than Cruz at the time coming off his age 30 season. I was hoping to get at least one good year out of him, but never understood the signing when Davis and Mancini were on the team. Mancini hadn’t proven himself yet, but I was more than willing to give him a chance on a rookie salary. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Trumbo was even younger than Cruz at the time coming off his age 30 season. I was hoping to get at least one good year out of him, but never understood the signing when Davis and Mancini were on the team. Mancini hadn’t proven himself yet, but I was more than willing to give him a chance on a rookie salary. 

I figured it was Buck.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I figured it was Buck.

Most likely and maybe Peter Angelos depending on how close he was paying attention in 2016.

[ChosenOne21]

13 hours ago, atomic said:

As Frobby likes to bring up my bad predictions... you will notice I was right in Cruz case and Frobby was wrong.

So how did you know Cruz was going to be more valuable from 34-37 than he was from 30-33? Tell me your secrets--I want to work for a MLB front office