Would you have matched SEA offer to keep Cruz an Oriole?

[brooksfrankjim]

I would not have matched the Seattle offer, nor would I pay Nick more than $8m per year for 4 years. I would go to 4/44m for Miller because I see him as a difference maker in his prime. I understand the risk with Miller but the reward is significant if he continues at a high level.

Pitching wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would not have matched the Seattle offer, nor would I pay Nick more than $8m per year for 4 years. I would go to 4/44m for Miller because I see him as a difference maker in his prime. I understand the risk with Miller but the reward is significant if he continues at a high level.

Pitching wins.

Outscoring the opposition wins. And Miller pitched 62 innings this past year, leaving about 1396 innings for other pitchers to pick up.

[brooksfrankjim]

Outscoring the opposition wins. And Miller pitched 62 innings this past year, leaving about 1396 innings for other pitchers to pick up.

I hear ya and respect your point. Our starters generally don't go deep in games so being strong at the back of the bullpen shortens games as it relates to our starters.

[Morgan423]

The money looked OK on an AAV level, it's about 2.5 WAR a season at current prices... but that's too many years.

I would have passed too, were I the O's. I'm not sure that he will produce at that level or stay healthy for four full seasons.

[Ruzious]

Cruz is being paid for almost 10 wins at $6M per win. Or more than he's been worth over the previous four seasons. Seattle is either betting that he ages in reverse, or that baseball inflation is going to be fairly extreme. My figurin' says Cruz is worth about 4/30 based on a weighted average of his last four years and a half a win decline per year. The Mariners essentially doubled that. As I said earlier in the offseason the Orioles should have thanked him for 2014 and the draft pick, given him a nice basket of Orioles-logoed baseballs and some Old Bay, and wished him good luck in whatever place thinks they've found the fountain of youth.

I would go with Seattle over you on this one. If he stays healthy, he'll be worth the money. And winning is better than losing.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I wouldn't have even offered the third year, so...

[Go_Os]

Do players typically get healthier as they age?

If he's a full time DH the likelihood of an injury is low.

I am not happy that we didn't sign him since power bats are hard to find these days.

[atomic]

Sure why not. I would have signed Cruz to a 3 year 50 million dollar deal so the extra year would be 7 million. Of course he won't do well playing in Seattle. Like I said before it isn't my money.

[weams]

Our comp pick is between the 1st and 2nd round, not where SEA would've picked.

Correct.

[weams]

The money looked OK on an AAV level, it's about 2.5 WAR a season at current prices... but that's too many years.

I would have passed too, were I the O's. I'm not sure that he will produce at that level or stay healthy for four full seasons.

It's an over pay that costs you Davis this year to make up for it. This way we get two picks. I'm ok with it.

[BohKnowsBmore]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-reward-nelson-cruzs-overconfidence/

I think fangraphs in general seems to dislike Orioles players (either overrated or bound to regress)**, however, I think that this is a pretty fair assessment.

**Just how it seems to me.

[e16bball]

I would go with Seattle over you on this one. If he stays healthy, he'll be worth the money. And winning is better than losing.

Let's assume excellent health. He repeats this year's durability and plays 160 games (which he had only done once before in his career). But just so we're playing fair, we'll assume that his breakdown of DH vs. OF time also remains similar to this season's (say, 50/50) --- as many have attributed his sustained health to that time off in the field.

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DEFENSE: Over the past 4 seasons, Nelson has averaged approximately -2.5 runs defensively per 80 games in the OF. Taking into account the 50/50 split between LF and DH, his positional adjustment would be approximately -12.5 runs. All in all, that leaves him at about -15.0 runs in the field.

OTHER: He's averaged about -3.5 runs per 160 games on the basepaths. With a league adjustment of about 2.5 runs and an adjustment to replacement level (instead of average) of about 19.0 runs, that leaves him at about 18.0 runs in other non-batting adjustments.

Overall, then, simply taking the field and playing a slightly below-average LF/DH full-time and being a slightly below-average baserunner, is worth about 3.0 runs above replacement each season, or 12.0 runs over 4 seasons. And for Nelson to produce approximately 9.5 wins over the next 4 seasons (to justify his $57M contract at $6M/win), he would need to accumulate about 87.0 runs.

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The upshot of all this is that --- assuming 4 years of excellent health allowing him to play ~160 games, an even split between LF and DH, and no significant drop-off in defense or baserunning [all of which I consider to be extremely generous] --- Nelson will need to produce about 75.0 runs with his bat over the next 4 seasons.

In the last decade, the list of players who produced at least 75.0 runs with their bats between ages 35-38 consists of the following:

1. David Ortiz (127.9 batting runs)

2. Chipper Jones (119.3 batting runs)

3. Manny Ramirez (111.9 batting runs)

4. Jim Thome (101.7 batting runs)

5. Gary Sheffield (85.5 batting runs)

...and that's it. Five HOF-caliber hitters, all of whom boasted massive BB rates and OBPs that Nelson has never come anywhere close to matching.

That's the company Nelson has to join in order to justify this deal --- in the realistic best case scenario. It says nothing of how well he would have to hit if (A) he's habitually hurt, or (B) if his defense falls off a cliff, or © if a combination of A and B forces him to DH exclusively.

Perhaps Nelson's bat will age better than virtually every other player in the past decade --- including ones who were much better hitters than he in his prime. Perhaps the player with the PED red flags who played 120 games/season from 2009-11 will be a model of durability in 2015-18. Perhaps everything from his fielding to his baserunning will age gracefully and things will break just right for him.

Honestly, I hope they do. Nelson seems like a good guy and he did some great things for the O's this season. I wish him the best. And based on that, I hope this big bet Seattle is taking pays off for them --- for Nelson's sake. But based on the cold, hard reality of the world we live in? I'm glad it's them making that bet and not the Orioles.

Edited December 1, 2014 by e16bball

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-reward-nelson-cruzs-overconfidence/

I think fangraphs in general seems to dislike Orioles players (either overrated or bound to regress)**, however, I think that this is a pretty fair assessment.

**Just how it seems to me.

Love this line.

The Orioles didn’t want to go from three to four years, and the Orioles are reportedly interested in giving four years to Nick Markakis.

[Babypowder]

I'd rather have Tomas at 6/68.5 than Cruz at 4/57.

[Babypowder]

Love this line.

Agreed. I'm very curious to see what happens with Markakis now. I'd be strongly against a 4 year deal for either of them, but at least Cruz brings an elite skill to the table that's worthy of being paid well at least in the short term. Markakis brings a whole lot of nothing irreplaceable.