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The This Team IS Done, We are Dumb and Nothing can Fix it MEGA THREAD

MagicBird

By MagicBird
in Orioles Talk

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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It's all a matter of what risk the organization is willing to take. They are paying De Aza, Matusz, and Cabrera ten million this year. I would much rather have invested that money into Cruz and taken the risk of Cruz underperforming the backend of the contract. I think investing ten million into those three guys was a worst investment for a supposedly poor team.

The bolded part of your statement is meaningless. I sure hope the O's organization is not making decisions based on how the OH will react.

I would have signed Cruz. And I would have been wrong. I liked Nelson. He was great for us. Except for those three months.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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And this is the same Nelson Cruz who was worth a grand total of 4 wins from 2011-13 combined. The idea that he was a guaranteed producer for the next 2, 3, 4 years is ludicrous.

As usual you have made a lot of great points in this thread, but your quote is a stretch. Yeah, it is pretty much guaranteed that Cruz will be a producer for the first two years of that contract. He may not be Babe Ruth, but there's a high probability that Cruz will be a MLB leader in OPS+ the first two years of that contract. The risk is the final two seasons, but it's not an end-of-the-world risk. As mentioned above, the O's are forking out significant dollars for bit players that are very likely going to underperform their contracts and offer far, far less upside.

By the way, I love that you continue to hammer negative posters in this thread by referring to recent O's success that involved bit players. Could you remind us of your preseason win predictions for 2012, 2013 and 2014? I can't find those threads, but I believe you were pretty to very pessimistic before the seasons started.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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As usual you have made a lot of great points in this thread, but your quote is a stretch. Yeah, it is pretty much guaranteed that Cruz will be a producer for the first two years of that contract. He may not be Babe Ruth, but there's a high probability that Cruz will be a MLB leader in OPS+ the first two years of that contract. The risk is the final two seasons, but it's not an end-of-the-world risk. As mentioned above, the O's are forking out significant dollars for bit players that are very likely going to underperform their contracts and offer far, far less upside.

By the way, I love that you continue to hammer negative posters in this thread by referring to recent O's success that involved bit players. Could you remind us of your preseason win predictions for 2012, 2013 and 2014? I can't find those threads, but I believe you were pretty to very pessimistic before the seasons started.

But the risk is spread with them. And it is defined in length. I have said many times I agree with you, I would have signed Nelson Cruz. And I would have been wrong long term to do so. I would have lost Jimmy Paredes over it. And I would have locked the Orioles into a DH that probably wont be able to play major league ball three years from now.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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As usual you have made a lot of great points in this thread, but your quote is a stretch. Yeah, it is pretty much guaranteed that Cruz will be a producer for the first two years of that contract. He may not be Babe Ruth, but there's a high probability that Cruz will be a MLB leader in OPS+ the first two years of that contract. The risk is the final two seasons, but it's not an end-of-the-world risk. As mentioned above, the O's are forking out significant dollars for bit players that are very likely going to underperform their contracts and offer far, far less upside.

By the way, I love that you continue to hammer negative posters in this thread by referring to recent O's success that involved bit players. Could you remind us of your preseason win predictions for 2012, 2013 and 2014? I can't find those threads, but I believe you were pretty to very pessimistic before the seasons started.

I do not believe in calling anyone a negative poster. Some folks are frustrated. For good reason. Please don't group people.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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I would have signed Cruz. And I would have been wrong. I liked Nelson. He was great for us. Except for those three months.

Ha! Forgive me if I seriously distrust your crystal ball. I don't mean to insult you, but you defend the organization's moves 99% of the time. DD could sign Sammy Sosa out of retirement and there's a high probability you would applaud the move. If DD had signed Cruz, then I'm sure you would be posting in "all praise DD" threads about the signing right now.

If the idea is to avoid ALL free agent risk and never get stuck with an underperforming contract, then of course the organization should never sign a free agent. But then they should also avoid Matusz like deals if avoiding risk is the be all, end all. 14 million a year for a top OPS+ is not a lot of money. Cruz's salary is the 58th highest salary in baseball.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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I do not believe in calling anyone a negative poster. Some folks are frustrated. For good reason. Please don't group people.

I'm sorry, who was I grouping or calling negative? Drungo has been very critical of and very sarcastic with multiple posters in this thread and he referenced the performance of role players on recent O's teams while posting. I am pointing out that Drungo predicted less than stellar performances of those teams in the preseason prediction thread/poll indicating that he too was very skeptical of the O's rosters.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I'm sorry, who was I grouping or calling negative? Drungo has been very critical of and very sarcastic with multiple posters in this thread and he referenced the performance of role players on recent O's teams while posting. I am pointing out that Drungo predicted less than stellar performances of those teams in the preseason prediction thread/poll indicating that he too was very skeptical of the O's rosters.

You called a group "negative posters." I was not standing up for anyone. Just telling you that I dislike grouping folks. No matter when their opinions may be convergeant.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Ha! Forgive me if I seriously distrust your crystal ball. I don't mean to insult you, but you defend the organization's moves 99% of the time. DD could sign Sammy Sosa out of retirement and there's a high probability you would applaud the move. If DD had signed Cruz, then I'm sure you would be posting in "all praise DD" threads about the signing right now.

If the idea is to avoid ALL free agent risk and never get stuck with an underperforming contract, then of course the organization should never sign a free agent. But then they should also avoid Matusz like deals if avoiding risk is the be all, end all. 14 million a year for a top OPS+ is not a lot of money. Cruz's salary is the 58th highest salary in baseball.

I was on record as not wanting to be be burdened with the type of contract that Cruz, a DH, at the level that Seattle signed him. That said, I was very hopeful for this season that we would make that mistake. Your other stuff you threw at me is not appreciated.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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You called a group "negative posters." I was not standing up for anyone. Just telling you that I dislike grouping folks. No matter when their opinions may be convergeant.

Ok. Not sure where I called folks negative posters, but I definitely didn't mean to insult anyone.

By the way, I have no idea what happened but my most recent posts were under a very old username (bmorechop) that I lost the login information to years ago. Like in 2008! Do cookies surface years and years later? Very weird.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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I was on record as not wanting to be be burdened with the type of contract that Cruz, a DH, at the level that Seattle signed him. That said, I was very hopeful for this season that we would make that mistake. Your other stuff you threw at me is not appreciated.

My apologies. I can sometimes type much harsher than I mean for it to "sound". I truly didn't mean to insult you or anyone else.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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By the way, I love that you continue to hammer negative posters in this thread by referring to recent O's success that involved bit players. Could you remind us of your preseason win predictions for 2012, 2013 and 2014? I can't find those threads, but I believe you were pretty to very pessimistic before the seasons started.

Here it was. And you probably did not mean it as it came out. I know Drungo to be an opinionated, smart, nice guy. Who often disagree's with my thoughts or opinions and finds fact to back up his point.

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