2015 2nd (68) - Jonathan Hughes - RHP - HS (GA)

[clapdiddy]

Oh well...hopefully, that second round pick next year will work out.

[Frobby]

Dang. I get the logic of what the O's were trying to do, but I hate having to wait another year for this pick. Our system is thin and we need every decent prospect we can get.

[Stotle]

Would love the details; has to be he changed his number or there was a physical issue, right? Can't imagine Baltimore drafted someone in the second round that wasn't interested in signing.

[Tony-OH]

If you think Hughes is a fourth round talent but you drafted him at 68 because you thought it could save money to sign a 20th rounder, then it turns out that it wouldn't save enough money to sign the 20th rounder, then yeah something is gained by not signing him as you are essentially trading a #69 pick in next year's draft for whatever you think Hughes' actual value is. If you think Hughes actual value is a fourth round talent, that difference is significant.

Sounds believable to me. Good analysis.

[TonySoprano]

A club official confirmed the news to MASNsports.com, also stating that the Orioles don't expect to sign any other draft picks. The Orioles have signed 35 of their 41 selections in the 2015 draft.

source - Steve Melewski

[Stotle]

If you think Hughes is a fourth round talent but you drafted him at 68 because you thought it could save money to sign a 20th rounder, then it turns out that it wouldn't save enough money to sign the 20th rounder, then yeah something is gained by not signing him as you are essentially trading a #69 pick in next year's draft for whatever you think Hughes' actual value is. If you think Hughes actual value is a fourth round talent, that difference is significant.

The problem with that is it requires your true valuation of the player to be lower than it should be for when he was selected. In other words, if the goal of the pick was to get an under slot signing you should be able to find a talent you like as a 2nd or 3rd round guy (most likely a guy you'd rather get with your pick in the next round but believe will not make it there). Either way (whether it's a 2nd/3rd or 4th round talent) if you are making an under-slot play you need to draft with certainty the player will sign. That means the phone call, the "we are looking to spend $X amount at this slot, is that something you'd consider?" talk, all of it.

Finally, if you view him as a fourth round talent than you should only be spending marginally above fourth round money for him, in which case you'd absolutely know on draft day whether the price you were offering (roughly 1.5 rounds below slot) was likely to get it done.

This is just weird to me. From a process standpoint I'm hoping it was something having to do with the physical, because it doesn't seem like a coherent approach to drafting and signing this kid.

[MachoMachadoMan]

Stotle (or anyone for that matter) - Do we have a read yet on whether or not next year's draft is going to be particularly shallow or deep? With the comp pick for not signing Hughes, plus whatever we likely get from not signing guys we make QO's after the season, I think we should expect another handful of relatively high selections.

[Number5]

The problem with that is it requires your true valuation of the player to be lower than it should be for when he was selected. In other words, if the goal of the pick was to get an under slot signing you should be able to find a talent you like as a 2nd or 3rd round guy (most likely a guy you'd rather get with your pick in the next round but believe will not make it there). Either way (whether it's a 2nd/3rd or 4th round talent) if you are making an under-slot play you need to draft with certainty the player will sign. That means the phone call, the "we are looking to spend $X amount at this slot, is that something you'd consider?" talk, all of it.

Finally, if you view him as a fourth round talent than you should only be spending marginally above fourth round money for him, in which case you'd absolutely know on draft day whether the price you were offering (roughly 1.5 rounds below slot) was likely to get it done.

This is just weird to me. From a process standpoint I'm hoping it was something having to do with the physical, because it doesn't seem like a coherent approach to drafting and signing this kid.

You seem to want to assign blame here. I think it is far more likely that either there was a health issue or the young man changed his thinking (following some advice, perhaps) than the Orioles failed to do their homework. The player told his local hometown newspaper that he wanted to sign. Something apparently caused that to change since draft day. I know that you are not a fan of DD, but I don't see any reason to take issue with this situation. Seemed like a logical course of action to me, with very little downside risk, given the fact that the pick would be replaced in next year's draft in the event the young man didn't sign.

[Stotle]

You seem to want to assign blame here. I think it is far more likely that either there was a health issue or the young man changed his thinking (following some advice, perhaps) than the Orioles failed to do their homework. The player told his local hometown newspaper that he wanted to sign. Something apparently caused that to change since draft day. I know that you are not a fan of DD, but I don't see any reason to take issue with this situation. Seemed like a logical course of action to me, with very little downside risk, given the fact that the pick would be replaced in next year's draft in the event the young man didn't sign.

You're projecting. I have no issue with Duquette and have been plenty complimentary of his baseball mind. My post was intended to be a specific critique of Murph's hypothetical and was based on his fact set being our actual fact set (i.e. Baltimore viewing the player as a 4th Round talent and drafting him with the intention of signing him below slot, and then deciding they valued the pick next year more than the player this year).

Under that fact set an issue with the physical would be the only hiccup that makes sense to me, from a process standpoint.

[GoldGlove21]

You're projecting. I have no issue with Duquette and have been plenty complimentary of his baseball mind. My post was intended to be a specific critique of Murph's hypothetical and was based on his fact set being our actual fact set (i.e. Baltimore viewing the player as a 4th Round talent and drafting him with the intention of signing him below slot, and then deciding they valued the pick next year more than the player this year).

Under that fact set an issue with the physical would be the only hiccup that makes sense to me, from a process standpoint.

Was he the only guy left with real above slot value?

[Stotle]

Was he the only guy left with real above slot value?

Could you clarify?

[weams]

It think this is a good opportunity for the Orioles to sign a FA or two this off season that requires pick compensation. Might be a bit of the long con at this point.

[weams]

You're projecting. I have no issue with Duquette and have been plenty complimentary of his baseball mind. My post was intended to be a specific critique of Murph's hypothetical and was based on his fact set being our actual fact set (i.e. Baltimore viewing the player as a 4th Round talent and drafting him with the intention of signing him below slot, and then deciding they valued the pick next year more than the player this year).

Under that fact set an issue with the physical would be the only hiccup that makes sense to me, from a process standpoint.

The Orioles are receiving a pick in 2016 which will be in the top 70. Edited July 17, 2015 by weams

[Can_of_corn]

It think this is a good opportunity for the Orioles to sign a FA or two this off season that requires pick compensation. Might be a bit of the long con at this point.

I think this is a good opportunity to leverage the heck out of the 2016 draft.

Four 1's, two 2's and maybe a balance pick? How fun would that draft be? Let's trade O'Day for a pick!

[mcgraw238]

Melewski noted on draft day (or shortly thereafter) that the club had Hughes rated top 50 and DD personally observed his workout at Camden Yards. If true, he wasn't viewed by the club at 4th round talent. Sounds like the kid had a change of heart and has decided to head off to college. No blame needs to be assigned and I don't really see where any was.