2015 2nd (68) - Jonathan Hughes - RHP - HS (GA)

[Number5]

You're projecting. I have no issue with Duquette and have been plenty complimentary of his baseball mind. My post was intended to be a specific critique of Murph's hypothetical and was based on his fact set being our actual fact set (i.e. Baltimore viewing the player as a 4th Round talent and drafting him with the intention of signing him below slot, and then deciding they valued the pick next year more than the player this year).

Under that fact set an issue with the physical would be the only hiccup that makes sense to me, from a process standpoint.

You seem to be omitting the likelihood that the strategy was not merely to sign him below slot, but to also, in turn, sign another unsigned draftee for more than $100,000 with the money saved below slot.

I am sorry if I have misinterpreted your many posts regarding Duquette. It seemed obvious to me that you were no fan, but if I have somehow misread that, please forgive my inference. By the way, I have no issue, one way or the other, with whatever your opinion of Duquette is.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Number5

[Can_of_corn]

Melewski noted on draft day (or shortly thereafter) that the club had Hughes rated top 50 and DD personally observed his workout at Camden Yards. If true, he wasn't viewed by the club at 4th round talent. Sounds like the kid had a change of heart and has decided to head off to college. No blame needs to be assigned and I don't really see where any was.

I'm not going to assign blame since I wasn't super excited about the pick in the first place.

But, if the kid said he would sign then the kid should have signed.

[jamesenoch]

The Orioles are receiving a pick in 2016 which will be in the top 70.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">jonathan hughes, hs rhp, told orioles he wants to honor his georgia tech commitment. o's get pick No. 68 back in '16.</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/622108436591980544">July 17, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Stotle]

You seem to be omitting the likelihood that the strategy was not merely to sign him below slot, but to also, in turn, sign another unsigned draftee for more than $100,000 with the money saved below slot.

Under that fact set best practices would be for Baltimore to pick someone they were certain to sign in order to secure that money. It sounds like (from other posts in this discussion) that Baltimore in fact had him rated as a 2nd Round guy and the issue likely wasn't related to under-slot angling, so it's probably moot. But as a practical matter, going under slot to free-up money is a good strategy but executing it means making sure you not only have a guy that will sign but that you know with good certainty the amount he is going to sign for.

So there is no confusion, I'm not claiming Baltimore did anything incorrect here. I'm making a general statement about that particular draft strategy.

[eb45]

I'm not going to assign blame since I wasn't super excited about the pick in the first place.

But, if the kid said he would sign then the kid should have signed.

Yeah, but with a compensation pick it's hard to get too annoyed at the kid. Plus, he's a teenager and it's hard to blame him for taking the chance to be a full-time college student (at a significantly reduced tuition rate). College can be a lot of fun and he'll get to play plenty of baseball there too. Maybe he shouldn't have indicated he'd sign, but kids change their minds sometimes. It's not like he said he'd sign for a certain amount and then decided he wanted more, he apparently just wanted to go to college. Whatever. I wasn't enthralled with him either, but he's got some nice upside I guess. Maybe he develops at GT and turns into a first-round pick. Who knows?

[sportsfan8703]

Sounds like he has a bad adviser. He's got to spend 3 years in NCAA pitching for free, just to try and best 68th overall. GL to him.

[Can_of_corn]

I'd love to know what the tuition is for 3 years at Georgia Tech. I bet it's not free.

Roughly 36K for residents, 93K for non-residents.

[Can_of_corn]

Roughly 36K for residents, 93K for non-residents.

Of course you also have to consider that:

Players can get fall-back tuition as part of their contracts.

Most baseball scholarships are partial.

[jcarm]

Roughly 36K for residents, 93K for non-residents.

Very, Very few college baseball players get full athletic scholarships. Teams are limited to offering 11.7 scholarships for the whole team-probably 30 or so players, so he may be having to foot some of the bill himself. It is also possible that other scholarships may be able to make up some or all of the difference. Georgia does offer the lottery funded HOPE scholarship for students that have good grades in high school and maintain those grades in college. There is a decent chance that he will not be going to college completely free, however.

[weams]

[eb45]

Sounds like he has a bad adviser. He's got to spend 3 years in NCAA pitching for free, just to try and best 68th overall. GL to him.

Right, because the only concern the kid has is how much money he can make from baseball. Give me a break.

[MurphDogg]

Right, because the only concern the kid has is how much money he can make from baseball. Give me a break.

Yeah, I think his "advisor" would have urged him to sign because that's how they get paid.

[jcarm]

Yeah, I think his "advisor" would have urged him to sign because that's how they get paid.

His "advisor" may think that he will get a bigger bonus in 3 years, so his "advisor" most definitely could have advised him not to sign. Good agents are those that have the best long term interests of their client in mind and are not in it for the quick buck. That is how they retain clients and gain more.

[hoosiers]

There is nothing wrong for Hughes to decide to go to college and nothing wrong with an advisor hinting bigger $ might await by improving his draft position. There is something wrong if those concerns/thoughts/decisions are not properly communicated before draft day, however.

On the surface, it appears the kid intended to sign and appears to have communicated with the Orioles an intention to sign. And it appears the Os were quite high on Hughes. Something went wrong between draft day and Friday. It will be interesting to know what happened. Short of the kid coming out and flat saying he changed his mind, this generally does not reflect well on the Os. These picks need to get signed. Hopefully, next year will be a deeper draft and we can find a prospect we like just as much.

I think speculation that Hughes signing might be related to another signing is just that - speculation. I think that speculation is creative and sensible, but we need to hear from the Os if it was close to reality.

[MurphDogg]

His "advisor" may think that he will get a bigger bonus in 3 years, so his "advisor" most definitely could have advised him not to sign. Good agents are those that have the best long term interests of their client in mind and are not in it for the quick buck. That is how they retain clients and gain more.

I hope so. I wonder what the retention rates of advisors is between high school and 3 years into college. I can't imagine that every high school draftee maintains the same advisor his second time around.