2015 2nd (68) - Jonathan Hughes - RHP - HS (GA)

[weams]

Dylan Cease should be the upper-limit comp for an injured high upside high school power arm.

Committed to attend Vanderbilt. That is a vaulted ceiling there. There must be a more reasonable comp.

[Stotle]

Committed to attend Vanderbilt. That is a vaulted ceiling there. There must be a more reasonable comp.

I just said upper-limit. Morris is a South Carolina commit -- if he doesn't mind the school route he'll be expensive. If he wants to go pro he should be signable. If we want a generic comp for an injured top 100 high school power arm then Cease in 2014 is a more useful comp than Adenhart in 2004, I'd think. But it all comes down to the player and what he wants to do.

[weams]

I just said upper-limit. Morris is a South Carolina commit -- if he doesn't mind the school route he'll be expensive. If he wants to go pro he should be signable. If we want a generic comp for an injured top 100 high school power arm then Cease in 2014 is a more useful comp than Adenhart in 2004, I'd think. But it all comes down to the player and what he wants to do.

Sure. I can see your point. So then, we move on. Because we can't get 1.4.

[jcarm]

I only have this to fall back on. He told the press he is signing and reporting to Florida. That's all I've got.

http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/archives/110219/

Reading that, the only possibilities that makes for a reason why he has not signed yet is that there is and injury concern(post physical) or he has upped his price, in which case the Orioles should definitely pass.

Edited June 30, 2015 by jcarm

[weams]

Reading that, the only possibilities that makes for a reason why he has not signed yet is that there is and injury concern(post physical) or he has upped his price, in which case the Orioles should definitely pass.

Or the Orioles need to see where they are on an over-slot before they pull the trigger.

[Number5]

Or the Orioles need to see where they are on an over-slot before they pull the trigger.

Actually, I think this would be a reason why we haven't signed Pries or Morris, or whoever the over-slot guy might be. This would have no bearing on signing Hughes, since signing him will be what determines how much they have to offer an over-slot guy. Hughes needs to be signed before the over-slot guy, not after.

[hoosiers]

I just said upper-limit. Morris is a South Carolina commit -- if he doesn't mind the school route he'll be expensive. If he wants to go pro he should be signable. If we want a generic comp for an injured top 100 high school power arm then Cease in 2014 is a more useful comp than Adenhart in 2004, I'd think. But it all comes down to the player and what he wants to do.

Appreciate the (perceived- ha ha) better comp, but obviously the Os won't have anything like the $ given to Cease. Morris said he was looking for second day $. While that's a pretty big range, the Os have a chance to get there, IMO.

Do you expect Hughes to sign below slot? If he signs for $750k, the Os could get near $575k-$600k if he is a target. Of course, if Morris is dead set on getting to South Carolina, maybe Hughes should be asking for extra $ if it is not going to be used.

[Stotle]

Appreciate the (perceived- ha ha) better comp, but obviously the Os won't have anything like the $ given to Cease. Morris said he was looking for second day $. While that's a pretty big range, the Os have a chance to get there, IMO.

Do you expect Hughes to sign below slot? If he signs for $750k, the Os could get near $575k-$600k if he is a target. Of course, if Morris is dead set on getting to South Carolina, maybe Hughes should be asking for extra $ if it is not going to be used.

I don't have a feel for Hughes and his number. I have not heard specifics. I agree Cease was a better prospect and it shouldn't take Cease money to sign Morris -- was just trying to set an upper limit for a more recent injury case with a HS arm. Morris is a top 100 HS arm while Cease was potentially a top 10 HS arm.

The only thing that leads me to believe Morris is more of a pipe dream is that he went so late in the draft. Usually if you have a feel for a player and plan on making a serious run you try and wrap that player up much earlier so he doesn't slip to someone else.

[Number5]

I don't have a feel for Hughes and his number. I have not heard specifics. I agree Cease was a better prospect and it shouldn't take Cease money to sign Morris -- was just trying to set an upper limit for a more recent injury case with a HS arm. Morris is a top 100 HS arm while Cease was potentially a top 10 HS arm.

The only thing that leads me to believe Morris is more of a pipe dream is that he went so late in the draft. Usually if you have a feel for a player and plan on making a serious run you try and wrap that player up much earlier so he doesn't slip to someone else.

Unless we already had drafted our top over-slot choices and then Morris slipped to us. As in we didn't expect him to still be there and went ahead and grabbed him since he had slipped to us.

[sportsfan8703]

Still no news. I am happy that everyone else in the top 20 has signed and am not a big fan of the Hughes pick. If Hughes is not willing to sign for enough below slot to sign Pries, Walton, or Morris, I wouldn't be opposed to not signing Hughes and getting the #69 (heh) pick next season. Paying $8500 or so in overage tax and having the #69 pick next year is preferable to paying Hughes close to full slot.

This is how I feel about the guy. And if we were just going to hand him slot he would have already signed, I'm thinking. So it looks like the O's are using a pretty good strategy here. Draft a guy that knows he should sign for underslot. Then use that money on some high upside guys late in the draft. I don't know much about these guys but Hughes doesn't seem worth not being able to Pries or the other guys.

[Stotle]

Unless we already had drafted our top over-slot choices and then Morris slipped to us. As in we didn't expect him to still be there and went ahead and grabbed him since he had slipped to us.

Sure -- occasionally (very rarely) you get someone who slips into the 30s who is good and is also signable. But 99% of the time the high schoolers going in round 32 are being drafted as back-ups to back-up plans with little thought towards actually signing them and more emphasis placed on relationship building for when they are eligible again.

[Can_of_corn]

My theory is that the O's have Hughes signed but don't want to make it official. The reason? They are negotiating with at least one of the other picks and don't want the player or his agent to know how much money they have to work with.

Could be but by holding him back he is missing valuable development time.

[Stotle]

My theory is that the O's have Hughes signed but don't want to make it official. The reason? They are negotiating with at least one of the other picks and don't want the player or his agent to know how much money they have to work with.

Only issue I see is that I'd assume Hughes has an agreement, in which case the number available for another signing is what it is (unless you are going to go back to Hughes and offer him less so that you can sign the other kid). That said, if you just want to make sure you are signing the other kid for as little as possible and don't want to give him the full savings, it would definitely make sense to hide the Hughes signing.

[Stotle]

Could be but by holding him back he is missing valuable development time.

I don't think it matters all that much. He should get the bulk of his 2015 work in during fall instructs, no?

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think it matters all that much. He should get the bulk of his 2015 work in during fall instructs, no?

Solid point.