Time for a full rebuild

[FanSince88]

This team is going to be picked last in the AL East by all the major media outlets in 2016, barring a huge spending spree which will not happen. Even if all the FAs return, they would still rightfully be picked last in the AL East.

It's time for a rebuild if the best you can do with this current group is a sub-.500 finish (and that's what we're looking at right now).

I would hang on to Manny and Schoop and maybe Gausman, and look to deal almost anyone else if we can. Need a complete overhaul here. And spare me the "if Manny and Schoop don't think we're buyers they won't stick around." If the money's there, they'll stay. They are still both very young. Look to extend them as soon as you can. Everything else look to deal.

The only tradeable pieces we may have outside of Manny and Schoop are Jones and Britton, which is a pathetic indicator of the state of this franchise. Tillman might return a B prospect or two if we're lucky. Nobody's going to want Gonzo after this year. Ubaldo they won't even touch with a ten foot pole without us eating all of his salary. Caleb should probably be kept just for the sake of having a decent catcher but he might fetch a B prospect if we could stretch it.

I was advocating re-signing Davis or signing Price recently, but the pathetic play of this team in the past few weeks when everything was on the line tells us all we need to know about the utter lack of talent on our squad. This is who we are -- a team that is completely overmatched by quality competition. It's not "bad luck" or injuries or anything like that. This is a team that can't score more than 3 runs against good teams to save its life. A team that has a pathetic record against winning teams. Its positive run differential is inflated by beating up on the likes of the Phillies and the A's, which we will probably resemble next season no matter what we do this offseason.

Yes, there will be a few years of losing, but it will avoid a full decade and a half of it if we get some value for the pieces that we have already, and restock the farm with prospects, prospects, prospects. Assume that half of them will bust -- so when you're done trading for prospects, go out and trade or pick up a few more. But it's better than spending dead money on has-beens. Our entire starting rotation is has-beens minus Gausman. Gonzo and Tillman had their time in the sun after nobody expected anything out of them. Good for them. But it's over. They're not getting any younger, and the league has figured them out. Ubaldo is Mr Inconsistent and can never be relied upon to give you more than a 5th starter type of year.

[Crazysilver03]

TL;DR. But long story short is this team has never done a rebuild. It was halfassed which is why it took so long to even get decent. And like Stotle suggested, 2012 might have been worse for the franchise then not making it as it gave fans the idea it could be supported. Anyway, it is ironic that the same people that blame DD for not fielding a playoff team think he could rebuild it.

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[theobird]

This team is going to be picked last in the AL East by all the major media outlets in 2016, barring a huge spending spree which will not happen. Even if all the FAs return, they would still rightfully be picked last in the AL East.

It's time for a rebuild if the best you can do with this current group is a sub-.500 finish (and that's what we're looking at right now).

I would hang on to Manny and Schoop and maybe Gausman, and look to deal almost anyone else if we can. Need a complete overhaul here. And spare me the "if Manny and Schoop don't think we're buyers they won't stick around." If the money's there, they'll stay. They are still both very young. Look to extend them as soon as you can. Everything else look to deal.

The only tradeable pieces we may have outside of Manny and Schoop are Jones and Britton, which is a pathetic indicator of the state of this franchise. Tillman might return a B prospect or two if we're lucky. Nobody's going to want Gonzo after this year. Ubaldo they won't even touch with a ten foot pole without us eating all of his salary. Caleb should probably be kept just for the sake of having a decent catcher but he might fetch a B prospect if we could stretch it.

I was advocating re-signing Davis or signing Price recently, but the pathetic play of this team in the past few weeks when everything was on the line tells us all we need to know about the utter lack of talent on our squad. This is who we are -- a team that is completely overmatched by quality competition. It's not "bad luck" or injuries or anything like that. This is a team that can't score more than 3 runs against good teams to save its life. A team that has a pathetic record against winning teams. Its positive run differential is inflated by beating up on the likes of the Phillies and the A's, which we will probably resemble next season no matter what we do this offseason.

Yes, there will be a few years of losing, but it will avoid a full decade and a half of it if we get some value for the pieces that we have already, and restock the farm with prospects, prospects, prospects. Assume that half of them will bust -- so when you're done trading for prospects, go out and trade or pick up a few more. But it's better than spending dead money on has-beens. Our entire starting rotation is has-beens minus Gausman. Gonzo and Tillman had their time in the sun after nobody expected anything out of them. Good for them. But it's over. They're not getting any younger, and the league has figured them out. Ubaldo is Mr Inconsistent and can never be relied upon to give you more than a 5th starter type of year.

You are correct sir. That is exactly what this club needs to do and I would support it 100%. But its not gonna happen, it will be half baked again for 2016 and we will not be a factor anyway.

[FanSince88]

Any reporter worth his salt in this region should ask DD and PA "what are you doing to avoid another decade and a half of losing? How are you going to avoid history repeating itself" Signing mid-level FAs won't prevent that. Bringing back FAs at twice the price you're paying them now won't, either. A true rebuild might just stave it off. If they have the stones to do it. Which they probably won't. If only we had a FO that had some guts. MacPhail came the closest to what we need.

[24fps]

Any reporter worth his salt in this region should ask DD and PA "what are you doing to avoid another decade and a half of losing? How are you going to avoid history repeating itself" Signing mid-level FAs won't prevent that. Bringing back FAs at twice the price you're paying them now won't, either. A true rebuild might just stave it off. If they have the stones to do it. Which they probably won't. If only we had a FO that had some guts. MacPhail came the closest to what we need.

In four-and-a-half years MacPhail never managed to win 70 games in a season. This is a joke right?

[Three Run Homer]

I think Tillman and Gonzo could bounce back next year and be better than average starters, which is what they were prior to this season.

But I agree with the original post that it will be very difficult for this team to contend in 2016 barring a major spike in payroll. This team has benefited this year from excellent production at bargain prices from O'Day, Chen and even Davis (relatively speaking). The team will lose that surplus value next year, and it will also be paying closer to market prices for Machado and Britton. DD can't even afford to bring back this year's team, given his budget constraints, and this year's team was not good enough to win.

If you can't afford to contend next year, and you don't have much impact talent in the farm system, then it's time to target winning in 3-4 years by trading players like Jones and Britton to add impact young talent.

[TINSTAAPP]

In four-and-a-half years MacPhail never managed to win 70 games in a season. This is a joke right?

He also had a miserable tenure with the Cubs. They had five winning seasons and made the playoffs only twice in his 12 years as Cubs President. The Cubs barely had a record better than the Orioles over that same time period despite the Orioles being a complete mess for most of that time. It's funny how the MacPhail fanboys just gloss over that period like it had no bearing on his ability to build a winning baseball team.

[SteveO]

Here is how I would approach it.

1. Offer Manny a 6/150 or 8/200 extension. If him and his agent come back with Stanton numbers, put that fact in your back pocket and know you have move Manny at some point in the next year or so. If he does not sign for that amount, he is bound and determined to be a FA and that is not a battle we will win. If he does I would aim to retool your roster around Manny, Schoop, and AJ offensively. That's a reasonable core to build around over a few years.

2. If Manny signs then that is the cornerstone you build from. He, Schoop and Jones are the bedrock, you add pieces offensively over then next few seasons knowing you have your cornerstone locked up for at least the next 6 years. If he (Manny) does not sign then at that point I would shift from retool mode into rebuild mode.

3. Even if you shift into rebuild mode, it's not a race, it is however imperative to get value back for guys who have value. I love AJ but he is not a guy IMO you build a franchise around, he is a guy that is the Robin to your franchises Batman so to speak. I would move AJ if Manny is not able to be extended but I would do it at a time of our choosing when we get a deal that brings back talent. Same for Britton and to a lesser extent Tillman who would have some value I believe.

4. Schoop is a guy I would keep for now regardless if we rebuild or not unless blown away. He is young and good enough to be a valuable part of a rebuild, he is good enough to be a good part of a retool. KG also.

5. A retool requires some urgency but a rebuild is not a race. The biggest mistake a team rebuilding can make is to rush the process and not get back max value for its assets of value. Manny if he won't extend is about as valuable asset as they come he and what you get back is the key to a rebuild.

It would kill me to see Manny in another uniform that does not say Orioles. That said, the worst thing this team can do is to not be aggressive in locking him up, sit around and wait till he is near his walk year and hope to get value for him. CD and MW are two guys whom we might have been able to trade 2 years ago but were both essentially had their value going into their walk years severely diminished for circumstances beyond the O's control (CD-bad year = less value on trade, MW because of injury). If you wait to long you never know what could happen and could be caught holding the bag and getting a sub-optimal return for him.

For me the whole retool, rebuild question revolves around Manny. If you can lock him up then your start to retool around him AJ, Schoop, KG etc. IF you can't and the sense is he is going to ride it out to free agency, you can't afford to wait and take a chance on getting a poor return for an asset like him. I also think if you have to move Manny then guys like AJ, Britton, etc have more value to what they can bring to a rebuild then what they can do for a retool.

[24fps]

He also had a miserable tenure with the Cubs. They had five winning seasons and made the playoffs only twice in his 12 years as Cubs President. The Cubs barely had a record better than the Orioles over that same time period despite the Orioles being a complete mess for most of that time. It's funny how the MacPhail fanboys just gloss over that period like it had no bearing on his ability to build a winning baseball team.

I think the difference between building a winning baseball team and guiding one to success is an interesting distinction when it comes to MacPhail. I haven't paid much attention to his Chicago years, perhaps I should.

[FanSince88]

He also had a miserable tenure with the Cubs. They had five winning seasons and made the playoffs only twice in his 12 years as Cubs President. The Cubs barely had a record better than the Orioles over that same time period despite the Orioles being a complete mess for most of that time. It's funny how the MacPhail fanboys just gloss over that period like it had no bearing on his ability to build a winning baseball team.

I was referring to MacPhail's boldness in making the deal for Jones and the deal for Davis and Hunter. I remember most of this board was bellyaching for the entire remainder of 2011 and the 2011/2012 offseason because MacPhail traded our extremely talented but irrelevant middle reliever for a first baseman and SP/Long Reliever (which we both desperately needed at the time). MacPhail had many faults but timidity in making trades wasn't one of them. He was willing to sell assets that were irrelevant because the rest of the team stunk.

[Crazysilver03]

I was referring to MacPhail's boldness in making the deal for Jones and the deal for Davis and Hunter. I remember most of this board was bellyaching for the entire remainder of 2011 and the 2011/2012 offseason because MacPhail traded our extremely talented but irrelevant middle reliever for a first baseman and SP/Long Reliever (which we both desperately needed at the time). MacPhail had many faults but timidity in making trades wasn't one of them. He was willing to sell assets that were irrelevant because the rest of the team stunk.

But it is easy to trade valuable pieces when you know you wont compete. And pretty sure people werent upset about trading Koji. We got a nice haul at the time that most people were surprised at.

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[24fps]

I was referring to MacPhail's boldness in making the deal for Jones and the deal for Davis and Hunter. I remember most of this board was bellyaching for the entire remainder of 2011 and the 2011/2012 offseason because MacPhail traded our extremely talented but irrelevant middle reliever for a first baseman and SP/Long Reliever (which we both desperately needed at the time). MacPhail had many faults but timidity in making trades wasn't one of them. He was willing to sell assets that were irrelevant because the rest of the team stunk.

His unwillingness to aggressively play the compensation pick game of that era was and is a very fair criticism. It's a mistake to think that a full rebuild took place under MacPhail

[FanSince88]

Here is how I would approach it.

1. Offer Manny a 6/150 or 8/200 extension. If him and his agent come back with Stanton numbers, put that fact in your back pocket and know you have move Manny at some point in the next year or so. If he does not sign for that amount, he is bound and determined to be a FA and that is not a battle we will win. If he does I would aim to retool your roster around Manny, Schoop, and AJ offensively. That's a reasonable core to build around over a few years.

2. If Manny signs then that is the cornerstone you build from. He, Schoop and Jones are the bedrock, you add pieces offensively over then next few seasons knowing you have your cornerstone locked up for at least the next 6 years. If he (Manny) does not sign then at that point I would shift from retool mode into rebuild mode.

3. Even if you shift into rebuild mode, it's not a race, it is however imperative to get value back for guys who have value. I love AJ but he is not a guy IMO you build a franchise around, he is a guy that is the Robin to your franchises Batman so to speak. I would move AJ if Manny is not able to be extended but I would do it at a time of our choosing when we get a deal that brings back talent. Same for Britton and to a lesser extent Tillman who would have some value I believe.

4. Schoop is a guy I would keep for now regardless if we rebuild or not unless blown away. He is young and good enough to be a valuable part of a rebuild, he is good enough to be a good part of a retool. KG also.

5. A retool requires some urgency but a rebuild is not a race. The biggest mistake a team rebuilding can make is to rush the process and not get back max value for its assets of value. Manny if he won't extend is about as valuable asset as they come he and what you get back is the key to a rebuild.

It would kill me to see Manny in another uniform that does not say Orioles. That said, the worst thing this team can do is to not be aggressive in locking him up, sit around and wait till he is near his walk year and hope to get value for him. CD and MW are two guys whom we might have been able to trade 2 years ago but were both essentially had their value going into their walk years severely diminished for circumstances beyond the O's control (CD-bad year = less value on trade, MW because of injury). If you wait to long you never know what could happen and could be caught holding the bag and getting a sub-optimal return for him.

For me the whole retool, rebuild question revolves around Manny. If you can lock him up then your start to retool around him AJ, Schoop, KG etc. IF you can't and the sense is he is going to ride it out to free agency, you can't afford to wait and take a chance on getting a poor return for an asset like him. I also think if you have to move Manny then guys like AJ, Britton, etc have more value to what they can bring to a rebuild then what they can do for a retool.

Good post. These are very insightful thoughts. Not sure I agree with them completely but I respect the depth of thought you've put into them.

I think you can still rebuild if you keep Manny. If you sign him to six or eight years, you hope you can bounce back and contend by year 4 or so of that deal. In the meantime, he can help mentor the new prospects you get when you deal Jones and Britton. I do agree that you never rush a deal -- that goes without saying. But do keep in mind that Britton is likely at the peak of his value this year, and although Jones has been Mr. Consistent, with his hitting profile he could end up with a .240 type of year if pitchers start being more disciplined when they face him and if he has less protection in the order.

[FanSince88]

But it is easy to trade valuable pieces when you know you wont compete. And pretty sure people werent upset about trading Koji. We got a nice haul at the time that most people were surprised at.

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Oh you should have seen some of the ridiculous posts of outrage that occurred when we traded Koji. Calling davis a strikeout machine and Hunter a bum who couldn't possibly help us. As if Koji was helping our team at all when we weren't good enough to have a lead late in the game.

[FanSince88]

His unwillingness to aggressively play the compensation pick game of that era was and is a very fair criticism. It's a mistake to think that a full rebuild took place under MacPhail

You're right, but it's the closest we came to it.