Time for a full rebuild

[LookitsPuck]

MacPhail rebuild? Remember Garrett Atkins et al.? The Seattle trade was great. Majority of rest was very blah.

Bedard trade? Tejada trade? Koji trade? Those trades alone really helped this franchise get respectable again. I think he only bad move by MacPhail was trading for Justin Turner and then DFA'ing him in 2010. Didn't like it then...and definitely don't like it now. But MacPhail was a wizard with trades. Something Duquette is terrible with.

[gmelson26]

The current team was built partly due to trading Eric Bedard for Tillman and Jones and Uehara for Davis and Hunter. There are enough holes and not enough coming up in the farm system where I think this is a viable option once again. I would certainly look to deal Britton and Manny (if he's uninterested in extending with his". Both will be at top value this off season although one could argue we could visit this again in the 2016 off season and both could still be at top value. I started a trade thread earlier today. You don't have to agree with them, but it's the kind of bold move that I think is warranted this year. Otherwise, I think we are headed for 2-3 years of mediocrity. Even with a 120M payroll we essentially would be looking to replace Davis and Chen and wind up with pretty much the same team that is about to finish below .500.

I couldn't agree more. I only wish we started the trek back towards the top this trade deadline by selling when we clearly weren't going to be in it at the end of the day.

[winkies]

Good prospects like Delmon Young, Travis Snider, Chris Parmalee?

I'm saying this idea that we can just the fleece the hell out guys getting paid millions to manage a team is misguided.

We can't just take out the trash and have somebody mail us goodies.

[LookitsPuck]

Dukes trades have not been good for the most part but he is dealing from a different perspective than MacPhail was.

That he is. But trading Ryan Webb AND a draft pick? Trading Hader, a draft pick, international slot AND LJ Hoes for Bud Norris? Trading Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller? Arrieta and Strop for Feldman (career 4.81 ERA prior to 2013) and Clevenger? Just odd trades, man. Some bad.

[SteveO]

The current team was built partly due to trading Eric Bedard for Tillman and Jones and Uehara for Davis and Hunter. There are enough holes and not enough coming up in the farm system where I think this is a viable option once again. I would certainly look to deal Britton and Manny (if he's uninterested in extending with his". Both will be at top value this off season although one could argue we could visit this again in the 2016 off season and both could still be at top value. I started a trade thread earlier today. You don't have to agree with them, but it's the kind of bold move that I think is warranted this year. Otherwise, I think we are headed for 2-3 years of mediocrity. Even with a 120M payroll we essentially would be looking to replace Davis and Chen and wind up with pretty much the same team that is about to finish below .500.

Yup agree here for the most part.

The quintessential question the organization needs to have answered is this. Will Manny sign a fair market extension? The answer to that will determine largely what the best course of action will be. If he will great....do it and start building around him. If not, you can't lose an asset like Manny without receiving the maximum value you can get from him back.

To successfully navigate this requires two things that concern me.

A) It will require Peter Angelos to shell out huge money. Manny is not signing a hometeam discount Orioles special deal nor should he.

B) If Peter decides there is to much risk in giving Manny that money, it requires him being willing to let DD move him when the time is right and when he can max value back. Something I am not sure PA would let him do. Note, I said not sure. ......

If one of those two things do not happen, we are going to end up wasting an incredibly rare asset.

[24fps]

I'm saying this idea that we can just the fleece the hell out guys getting paid millions to manage a team is misguided.

We can't just take out the trash and have somebody mail us goodies.

I agree that the expectation of lopsided wins on a regular basis is misguided. Trading established ML regulars for prospects comes with a huge risk far more often than not. The fact that prospects often don't fulfill their promise and the timeframe is often years down the road is usually overlooked in reactionary "blow it up" threads.

[SteveO]

Dukes trades have not been good for the most part but he is dealing from a different perspective than MacPhail was.

This is important to note.

McPhail was traded established talent for prospects. DD has been doing arguably the opposite. Its two different mindsets and very different positions in terms of leverage. Its akin to comparing how well a guy who has millions makes out in the stock market to how a guy with a few thousand bucks does.....you just cant compare the two.

[LookitsPuck]

No one had a problem trading Arrieta and Strop at the time. It wasn't considered odd. Eduardo Rodriguez was considered an overpay by many but again, not an odd trade.

I'll agree that for a team that keeps spouting about building through the farm system, trading comp picks and international slots is counter intuitive. While Duquette has made some bad trades the impetus should fall upon the pitching instruction within the organization. Arrieta goes from bum to CY bum within 2 years, and Eduardo Rodriguez goes from good to super good prospect within weeks after leaving the Orioles. Both suddenly start throwing strikes and commanding the inside part of the plate like never before.

Arrieta went from bum to very good in 5 weeks. At the end of the 2013 campaign he had a 3.66 ERA. Since then he's been an ace in 2014 and 2015. ERod did the same thing in the Red Sox farm system and has been a serviceable starter for them in the majors this year. What gives?

And trading for Scott Feldman was odd. He had a career 4.81 ERA prior to the 2013 Cubs season.

[SteveO]

I like what you've posted and basically agree with it. However, I don't think Manny wants to remain in Baltimore (I hope I'm way off on this).

Let me ask you this, if Manny doesn't resign do you have faith that DD would be able to pull off a valuable trade? I just don't know. I feel like he just gets fleeced.

I actually do trust DD to get as much value as he can Manny. He managed to get Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields. I think DD could pull off a trade that in the long term would ease the blow of losing him and bring in meaningful talent..

Now what I am not sure I trust is that he would be allowed to make the trade when he can maximum value back.

[SteveO]

I'm not here to be a Duquette apologist but here are the facts. Feldman had a 3.46 ERA through 15 starts for the Cubs. He didn't pitch badly for the Orioles (4.26 ERA in 15 starts). Arrieta and Strop had both become head cases on the mound. Strop was quite possibly about to be DFA'd and Arrieta was heading for his 3rd or 4th return trip to Norfolk.

The trade can be debated either way and with some valid points on both sides I believe.

The more important question is how does a guy with his talent, his stuff and clearly is a driven player find no success here whatsoever and become a TOR and Cy Young candidate elsewhere. That's not all on DD, he was not here when that process started, perhaps if had been it might have worked out differently.

[SteveO]

Agree 100%. The Eduardo Rodriguez quick turnaround last year and this year compounds the issue. Duquette is hopefully asking himself the same question.

DD had decent success in developing pitching in both Montreal and Boston. He has a history of some success, much more so than the O's have collectively under a number of GM's. If we continue to flounder then you have to you would have to wonder why. DD would not be at the top of my list of reasons why based on history.

[hoosiers]

I want DD to remain so he can live with the mess he has created.

I do think DD has put good people in place on the scouting and development sides and would be worried that his departure would mean a complete overhaul of the organization - something I don't want. I'd like to see DD commit to a rebuild and get those good draft and develop guys extra picks and more international guys.

Three good drafts and a commitment to the rebuild can make the rebuild take three years or so. It takes the commitment that AM showed in bringing in a hoard of prospects and not having the vanity to care about the w-l record until the team is ready to compete. Machado, Schoop, Gausman and possible contributions from Mancini, Harvey, Bundy and a couple more plus hopefully a decent prospect haul for Britton and possibly Jones. It's not a bad base from which to compete in a few years.