Is it ok to give up on Miguel Gonzalez?

[TonySoprano]

I'm not convinced that he was pitching healthy the past two+ months.

[24fps]

Add me to the list of those who don't think he's 100%. I'm for bringing him back for another year.

[Camden_yardbird]

Don't give up on him, just don't count on him.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

That's an accountants answer.

A fans question is "do you see see Gonzo in the rotation of a World Series ? Or ALCS? An honest and objective would say no. Trade him

For the record, I do recall him pitching in an ALCS. Just last year. 5 2/3 giving up two runs....not great, but not horrible.

For what it's worth, you hope for a bounceback next year. The guy has been a pretty solid ML starter for nearly three and a half years, the second half of this year, probably injury impacted, has obviously been awful. You bring him back next year and he is a decent bet to return to at least being a decent starter.

[mdbdotcom]

He's been consistent for 3 years. He struggled this season, I expect trying to pitch through an injury. With our lack of pitching depth it would be silly to give up on him. Worst case move him to the pen.

Maybe he and Tyler Wilson share time (in whatever proportion) as 5th starter/long man.

[Phantom]

He'll be better next year. He was fine in the first half, but never seemed healthy after that. Rest up and he'll be OK.

His FIP was better in the 2nd half of the year than the first half. He was just getting less lucky in the second half. In fact, his second half peripherals are right in line with his career numbers.

[bpilktree]

I'm not convinced that he was pitching healthy the past two+ months.

I agree his ERA was in the mid 3s around mid June this season before his first trip to the DL. Since then his ERA is mid 6. I am not sure he is a top 3 rotation guy but i think he is easily a very good 4 or 5.

[weams]

His FIP was better in the 2nd half of the year than the first half. He was just getting less lucky in the second half. In fact, his second half peripherals are right in line with his career numbers.

So, it has caught up with him then.

[Can_of_corn]

So, it has caught up with him then.

Or the team defense let him down.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's an accountants answer.

A fans question is "do you see see Gonzo in the rotation of a World Series ? Or ALCS? An honest and objective would say no. Trade him

That sets you up for a never ending cycle of disappointment. This year's Yanks have given roughly 100 starts to players with a below-average ERA. You could argue that none of them are prototypical playoff starters. Do the Yanks go into 2016 hoping to replace 60+% of their rotation? The Blue Jays have given about as many starts to guys who've out-pitched their mediocre FIPs, Gonzalez-style. Are they going to dump them all? The Royals have Cueto, Duffy, Guthrie, Medlin... all with 6-something K rates, mediocre peripherals, mostly unimpressive FIPs/xFIPs. Do you see them as playoff starters?

[DrungoHazewood]

So, it has caught up with him then.

Or the team defense let him down.

Right. What does "caught up with" mean? For the first time in his career his ERA is higher than his FIP. If the Orioles continue to emphasize defense there's no reason to think he couldn't go back to moderately out-performing his FIP. You can certainly compete with a 4th/5th starter with a low-4.00s ERA. As evidenced by almost all the playoff teams.

[Mayor McCheese]

I don't think they should....He could still be a good LR out of the bull pen.

[Phantom]

Right. What does "caught up with" mean? For the first time in his career his ERA is higher than his FIP.

No it isn't.

Fip: 5.01

ERA: 4.91

If the Orioles continue to emphasize defense there's no reason to think he couldn't go back to moderately out-performing his FIP.

The problem is, he wasn't "moderately out-performing his FIP". His career FiP is 4.70 (and that has been getting worse every year, not better). Experts tend to think that a truly excellent defense can move an ERA a small tick in relation to FIP, but even then we are looking at an expected 4.50 ERA for Gonzo. And that is assuming the Orioles defense is much, much better than it was this year, which I see no great reason to believe will be the case.

[Nevermore]

Did his peripherals catch up?

Absolutely not. It looks like he was trying to pitch through some injuries and the team finally put him on the DL for most of the rest of the season.

[weams]

Right. What does "caught up with" mean? For the first time in his career his ERA is higher than his FIP. If the Orioles continue to emphasize defense there's no reason to think he couldn't go back to moderately out-performing his FIP. You can certainly compete with a 4th/5th starter with a low-4.00s ERA. As evidenced by almost all the playoff teams.

That makes sense.