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O'Day, Britton, Matusz and the price of relief pitching


Frobby

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Since we spend so much time debating how much to spend on relievers, and what they're worth, I though it would be useful to do a little research and shed some light on just how many highly-paid relievers there are.

By my count, there are 111 relievers in MLB who make more than $1 mm -- an average of 3.7 per team. I included on my list only pitchers who almost exclusively pitched in relief; even guys who made like 5 spot starts were excluded. On the other hand, I did include Edwin Jackson, who made $13 mm last year because he was a mid-rotation starter when he signed his deal. He pitched exclusively in relief this season. I am pretty sure that my list inadvertently missed some guys who changed teams and didn't have their salaries listed with a team on BB-ref. So lets leave it that there are least 111, and probably a few more.

Here is a more detailed breakdown:

$7 mm +: 17

$6-6.99 mm: 4

$5-5.99 mm: 9

$4-4.99 mm: 12

$3-3.99 mm: 14

$2-2.99 mm: 23

$1-1.99 mm: 32

The 13 pitchers in Brian Matusz's $3 mm+ "peer group" were Chad Qualls, Sean Parnell, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, Matt Belisle, Randy Choate, Antonio Bastardo, Frank Rodriguez, Neil Cotts, Manny Parra, Zach Britton, Jake McGee and Kevin Jepsen. I don't have time right now to pull stats on that group, but I'd say that performance-wise, Matusz probably falls about in the middle. If anyone wants to take a crack at that, be my guest.

By the way, only two teams had six relievers making $1 mm+ -- the World Champion Kansas City Royals, who spent $23.9 mm on guys making more than $1 mm.. There were eight teams that had five million-dollar relievers, including the Orioles (Hunter, O'Day, Britton, Matusz, W. Wright), who spent $17.0 mm on their five guys. Teams that spent more include the Tigers, Nationals, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, and Padres.

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The 13 pitchers in Brian Matusz's $3 mm+ "peer group" were Chad Qualls, Sean Parnell, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, Matt Belisle, Randy Choate, Antonio Bastardo, Frank Rodriguez, Neil Cotts, Manny Parra, Zach Britton, Jake McGee and Kevin Jepsen. I don't have time right now to pull stats on that group, but I'd say that performance-wise, Matusz probably falls about in the middle. If anyone wants to take a crack at that, be my guest.

The average of those 14 pitchers including Matusz:

43.1 IP, 41 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.7 rWAR

Matusz himself:

49 IP, 56 K, 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.0 rWAR

So yeah, basically Matusz was average/slightly above average for his peer players. So according to the league standards, he was a fine value. He's not overpaid, or at least he hasn't been so far.

But of course, whether he's a good value at his 2016 salary and whether he's a good value to the Orioles in particular given their roster are two totally different questions.

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The average of those 14 pitchers including Matusz:

43.1 IP, 41 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.7 rWAR

Matusz himself:

49 IP, 56 K, 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.0 rWAR

So yeah, basically Matusz was average/slightly above average for his peer players. So according to the league standards, he was a fine value. He's not overpaid, or at least he hasn't been so far.

But of course, whether he's a good value at his 2016 salary and whether he's a good value to the Orioles in particular given their roster are two totally different questions.

And that's why the Orioles kept him even though some people wanted him non tendered this year.

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The average of those 14 pitchers including Matusz:

43.1 IP, 41 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.7 rWAR

Matusz himself:

49 IP, 56 K, 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.0 rWAR

So yeah, basically Matusz was average/slightly above average for his peer players. So according to the league standards, he was a fine value. He's not overpaid, or at least he hasn't been so far.

But of course, whether he's a good value at his 2016 salary and whether he's a good value to the Orioles in particular given their roster are two totally different questions.

Thanks for crunching the numbers, and I agree with your comments. Whether we'd retain Matusz might depend on what kind of raise he can expect. But it seems to me he should have some trade value, before we get to a non-tender decision.

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The average of those 14 pitchers including Matusz:

43.1 IP, 41 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.7 rWAR

Matusz himself:

49 IP, 56 K, 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.0 rWAR

So yeah, basically Matusz was average/slightly above average for his peer players. So according to the league standards, he was a fine value. He's not overpaid, or at least he hasn't been so far.

But of course, whether he's a good value at his 2016 salary and whether he's a good value to the Orioles in particular given their roster are two totally different questions.

By the measures you use, I suppose. I've never liked ERA for relief pitchers and especially not for Matusz. I can't be the only one who remembers him giving up runs upon his arrival, only to have those runs charged to? You guessed it, whomever it was he came in to relieve.

His IS is a pitiful 37% and more than that his leverage index shows he's coming in when it doesn't matter (.938 aLi) or below average.

Compare that with the two Matts, Thornton and Belisle. Matt Thornton had a much more respectable 18% IS and above average aLi at 1.206. While Matt Belisle was comparable to Matusz allowing inherited runners to score (36% IS) he did it in higher leverage situations (1.156 aLi).

Which brings us to the gold standard, Jake McGee. McGee put up cartoonish numbers for a reliever....0% IS, 1.744 aLi, and 26 of his 39 appearances in high

leverage situations.

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The average of those 14 pitchers including Matusz:

43.1 IP, 41 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.7 rWAR

Matusz himself:

49 IP, 56 K, 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.0 rWAR

So yeah, basically Matusz was average/slightly above average for his peer players. So according to the league standards, he was a fine value. He's not overpaid, or at least he hasn't been so far.

But of course, whether he's a good value at his 2016 salary and whether he's a good value to the Orioles in particular given their roster are two totally different questions.

I don't necessarily think it's right to define Matusz' peer group as relievers making $3-4M. That group will mostly be comprised of relievers who have more than three years service time (but probably less than seven) but aren't closers or otherwise dominant pitchers. If they didn't meet the criteria of that last sentence they would be paid something besides $3-4M. I think a more interesting data pull would be something like "what is the salary range of all LH relievers who've pitched 40-60 innings a year over the last couple years with a ERA/FIP between 2.50 and 4.00?"

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I don't necessarily think it's right to define Matusz' peer group as relievers making $3-4M. That group will mostly be comprised of relievers who have more than three years service time (but probably less than seven) but aren't closers or otherwise dominant pitchers. If they didn't meet the criteria of that last sentence they would be paid something besides $3-4M. I think a more interesting data pull would be something like "what is the salary range of all LH relievers who've pitched 40-60 innings a year over the last couple years with a ERA/FIP between 2.50 and 4.00?"

Feel free to do that research. I was really trying to look at whether Matusz is underperforming compared to pitchers who are compensated similarly to him. There are always going to be some younger guys, who are not arb-eligible or have been eligible for a shorter period of time, who make less money than those who have more service time but perform just as well or better. But it is not that easy to find enough of those guys to fill out a whole bullpen and get decent results. That's why there are at least 111 relievers making $1 mm and up, 56 of whom make $3 mm or more.

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I don't necessarily think it's right to define Matusz' peer group as relievers making $3-4M. That group will mostly be comprised of relievers who have more than three years service time (but probably less than seven) but aren't closers or otherwise dominant pitchers. If they didn't meet the criteria of that last sentence they would be paid something besides $3-4M. I think a more interesting data pull would be something like "what is the salary range of all LH relievers who've pitched 40-60 innings a year over the last couple years with a ERA/FIP between 2.50 and 4.00?"

Don't have salaries on each of these guys but this is roughly the list (sorted by innings):

I would wonder how many are LOOGYs. Perkins is closer. Don't know how to classify Cecil. There are 6 such guys 2.07 ERA or under (Watson, Britton, Miller, Chapman, McGee, Howell)

CAREER

2014-2015

LEFT HANDED PITCHERS

ERA BETWEEN 2.50 AND 4.00

GAMES STARTED < 10

INNINGS PITCHED IP ERA GS

1 Cesar Ramos 135 3.33 7 Rays/Angels

2 Neal Cotts 130 3.88 0 Rangers/Brewers/Twins

3 Jake Diekman 129.1 3.90 0 Phillies/Rangers

4 Will Smith 129 3.28 0 Brewers

5 Antonio Bastardo 121.1 3.49 0 Phillies/Pirates

6 Justin Wilson 121 3.64 0 Pirates/Yankees

7 Zach Duke 119.1 2.94 0 Brewers/White Sox

8 Glen Perkins 118.2 3.49 0 Twins

T9 Mike Dunn 111 3.81 0 Marlins

T9 Aaron Loup 111 3.65 0 Blue Jays

11 Brett Cecil 107.2 2.59 0 Blue Jays

T12 Fernando Abad 105 2.74 0 A's

T12 Kevin Siegrist 105 3.51 0 Cardinals

T12 Tony Sipp 105 2.66 0 Astros

15 Brian Duensing 103 3.76 0 Twins

16 Brian Matusz 100.2 3.22 0 Orioles

17 Blaine Hardy 100.1 2.87 0 Tigers

18 Oliver Perez 99.2 3.43 0 Diamondbacks/Astros

19 T.J. McFarland 99 3.64 1 Orioles

20 Dan Jennings 96.2 2.89 0 Marlins/White Sox

21 Joe Beimel 92.1 3.12 0 Mariners

22 James Russell 91.2 3.83 1 Cubs/Braves/Cubs

23 Jeremy Affeldt 90.2 3.67 0 Giants

24 Andrew Chafin 89 2.93 3 Diamondbacks

25 Alex Torres 88.1 3.26 0 Padres/Mets

26 Marc Rzepczynski 81 4.00 0 Indians/Padres

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With O'day leaving I don't see us weakening the bullpen anymore. If anything Matusz could have a bigger role with this years team. Matusz just nibbles too much and falls behind hitters, and alot of the times O'day would come on and bail out his ERA. The perfect example of Matusz was the Urrutia-Mets walk off game. Matusz comes in and walks the lefty(pretty sure it was Duda), then blows away Cespedes.

Last year I lumped Matusz in with Hunter and couldn't believe we tendered both of them. But this year I think what Matusz is going to get in arb is pretty fair value. There's no replacement on the horizon. We wasted money on Wesley Wright last year. TJ Mac seems like he's at his best in low pressure situations. We could non tender Matusz but we'll more than likely end up with a Wesley Wright type and then be shuffling through Mac, Chris Jones and then have to trade for a Lefty reliever. The safer bet is Matusz. He just drives me crazy during the season.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Some deals this offseason:

O'Day 4/$31 mm

Soria 3/$25 mm

Madson 3/$22 mm

Sipp 3/$18 mm

Lowe 2/$11 mm

Axford 2/$10 mm

Motte 2/$10 mm

Perez 2/$7 mm

Qualls 2/$6 mm

Hernandez 1/$3.9 mm

I'm not sure that's an exhaustive list of the top deals, but it's most of them. Bastardo and Clippard are still out there.

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With O'day leaving I don't see us weakening the bullpen anymore. If anything Matusz could have a bigger role with this years team. Matusz just nibbles too much and falls behind hitters, and alot of the times O'day would come on and bail out his ERA. The perfect example of Matusz was the Urrutia-Mets walk off game. Matusz comes in and walks the lefty(pretty sure it was Duda), then blows away Cespedes.

Last year I lumped Matusz in with Hunter and couldn't believe we tendered both of them. But this year I think what Matusz is going to get in arb is pretty fair value. There's no replacement on the horizon. We wasted money on Wesley Wright last year. TJ Mac seems like he's at his best in low pressure situations. We could non tender Matusz but we'll more than likely end up with a Wesley Wright type and then be shuffling through Mac, Chris Jones and then have to trade for a Lefty reliever. The safer bet is Matusz. He just drives me crazy during the season.

He's Baaaaack...

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