Trumbo an Oriole (For Clevenger Done Deal)

[ricowiz]

They screwed up with Wieters, no doubt, but it's water under the bridge at this point and they need to keep adding pieces. If Trumbo is a security blanket for the loss of Davis, the Orioles could definitely do worse.

To be fair, I would have offered a QO to Wieters as well, so I dont blame them for that, I just hope paying Trumbo that money doesnt hinder them from signing a legitimate player in any way.

I mean, Trumbo isnt terrible, but even if we resign Davis, arent we still at where we were? We would still have to add legitimate talent to the lineup in order to improve on last season offensively. I think Trumbo equals Pearce, so we really didnt gain much currently.

To be clear, if this move is part of other good moves (like a legitimate ace, an Upton/ Gordon/ Heyward type player) I am fine with it, but Ive been burned in the past hoping for things by the Orioles and I have this terrible feeling these are the only types of players we will be adding...

[ricowiz]

Agreed. 2014 was an outlier. Trumbo had injury problems that year (limited to 88 games) and it was his only full year in the National League, where he didn't have the DH as a fallback option, so his poor defense dragged down his overall value.

As long as the O's keep Trumbo at 1B/DH instead of putting him in the outfield, I think it's safe to say he'll have positive value overall in 2016. Not a ton, but some.

But will they just keep him at 1b/DH? I mean they played Pearce at 2b last season...

[MurphDogg]

I like the trade. I would love it, if not for Clevenger's status as the Pride of Pigtown.

As for Trumbo's strikeout rate, it was lower than Davis, Cruz, Duda, Belt, Kris Bryant and JD Martinez. Players can succeed with a strikeout rate as high as Trumbo's or even as high as league-leader Chris Davis. No such thing as a bad one year deal and I hated the lack of flexibility that having three catchers would have given the team.

Trumbo has been worth his 2016 salary four of the last five seasons, and I am looking forward to seeing him hit some moonshots next year. Hopefully he takes a couple David Price pitches over the Green Monster.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think Seattle played us like a fiddle. They traded a guy who should have been non-tendered, is barely above a replacement player (0.8 WAR last year, -1.1 the year before) and they use that money to sign a guy we should have signed, Aoki. Are we really going to pay Trumbo $9 million dollars?

We are still a one dimensional team thus far, all power and strikeouts, low OBP. I hope DD has more tricks up his sleeve than this, because this barely moves the needle in my opinion.

He actually had 1.6 WAR last season .8 each with Arizona and Seattle. The -1.1 in 2014 is an outlier based on his career:

2.9 in 2011

2.5 in 2012

2.1 in 2013

-1.1 in 2014

1.6 in 2015

There is a good chance he will be worth the $9 million the O's will likely pay him in 2016.

His exact value depends on the flavor of WAR you pick. It's pretty irrelvant - he wasn't great last year, poor but also injured in '14, pretty decent before that. They'll be paying for a little over one win, and he does have an opportunity to exceed that.

[PaulFolk]

But will they just keep him at 1b/DH? I mean they played Pearce at 2b last season...

Pearce had all of 13 starts at 2B last season. I'd be OK if Trumbo had 13 starts in the outfield and the rest at 1B/DH.

[Herman]

How many people here would have been losing their minds if the O's didn't offer the QO, though? I think they absolutely did the right thing, Wieters just threw a wrench in their plans.

I agree. Offering a QO was the right thing to do and I don't think that they expected a Scott Boras client to accept it

[ricowiz]

Pearce had all of 13 starts at 2B last season. I'd be OK if Trumbo had 13 starts in the outfield and the rest at 1B/DH.

True, good point

[jcarm]

They'll be paying for a little over one win, and he does have an opportunity to exceed that.

That is basically what I was saying. Not a bad deal for the Orioles. Based on his career it is probable that he will be worth the $9 million.

[DrungoHazewood]

That is basically what I was saying. Not a bad deal for the Orioles. Based on his career it is probable that he will be worth the $9 million.

I think the concern is that the Orioles can't afford to pay $9M for a 1-2 win player very often. They're paying Wieters and Trumbo $24M and the mid-case for the two of them is probably 3-4 wins. We're kind of stuck tying our hopes to Angelos authorizing a moderately larger payroll in '16.

[Finisher]

Trumbo's line against righties last year:

.248/.300/.409

Past 3 years:

.232/.287/.403

He was so bad at one point last year Seattle benched him.

[bpilktree]

I think that this is the final nail in the Davis coming back but I had very little hopes anyway. That being said if you add a player like Gordan for 16 million or so and let a few of the arbitration outfielders go the pay amunt is the same.

Trumbo, Gordan and Hoes would cost maybe around 27 million or so. Davis Clevenger and Lough would also

[Babypowder]

I don't like Trumbo much as a player, though it's obvious people really do dig the long ball around here. Trumbo is not a very good hitter even with his power. However, he was inexpensive in trade and 9 million is not a crazy amount to spend if he bounces back to being an acceptable league average starter at 2 wins.

There's not much upside here, and there's definite downside. I can't hate the deal because it cost nothing as far as players, but I don't love Trumbo as a target.

[bpilktree]

I think that this is the final nail in the Davis coming back but I had very little hopes anyway. That being said if you add a player like Gordan for 16 million or so and let a few of the arbitration outfielders go the pay amunt is the same.

Trumbo, Gordan and Hoes would cost maybe around 27 million or so. Davis Clevenger and Lough would also

Sorry cut off put they would also cost in the 27-30 mlllion range most likely.

Who would you rather have. I think i like the Trumbo Gordan combo much better then just Davis.

[Stotle]

They'll be paying for a little over one win, and he does have an opportunity to exceed that.

They'll be paying for a little over the average cost of a win, but not necessarily how much it would generally cost to acquire a one win player in free agency. Agreed, he'll have an opportunity to exceed that.

[Pickles]

They'll be paying for a little over the average cost of a win, but not necessarily how much it would generally cost to acquire a one win player in free agency. Agreed, he'll have an opportunity to exceed that.

I think as long as he's not consistently asked to play the OF calling him a one win player is selling him a little short.