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Duquette Speaks

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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By the logic of your first sentence you will see few star players ever reach an extension with their current team, which isn't the case. The logic of your last sentence tells me that we are embarking on Manny's final season as an Oriole in 2016.

If Manny's performance stays about the same or improves by just a few percentage points, then he could realistically get a 350 million dollar contract when he hits free agency in 2019. Or even more given how much per annual the top pitchers are getting this year. He's likely to make 30 - 35 million or so over the next three years. So Manny is looking at something in the ballpark of 380 million over the next 13 years. I don't think that's a crazy estimate at all given the trajectory of the free agent market. In fact, there is a good chance that there could be a 40 million per year player by 2019 and Manny is likely to be one of the best position players in baseball in 2019. How much of a discount will Manny take to make a bit more over the next few years and get some long-term insurance? 300 million instead of 380? I think it's very likely that the Orioles can not afford whatever that number really is. Manny is in line, in my opinion, to get a crazy contract. If he continues to be a very elite player, then I think the O's may be forced to trade him after the 2017 season (or maybe during that season) to get the most out of him that they can. I don't want that to happen, but I think that's a very likely scenario.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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If Manny's performance stays about the same or improves by just a few percentage points, then he could realistically get a 350 million dollar contract when he hits free agency in 2019. Or even more given how much per annual the top pitchers are getting this year. He's likely to make 30 - 35 million or so over the next three years. So Manny is looking at something in the ballpark of 380 million over the next 13 years. I don't think that's a crazy estimate at all given the trajectory of the free agent market. In fact, there is a good chance that there could be a 40 million per year player by 2019 and Manny is likely to be one of the best position players in baseball in 2019. How much of a discount will Manny take to make a bit more over the next few years and get some long-term insurance? 300 million instead of 380? I think it's very likely that the Orioles can not afford whatever that number really is. Manny is in line, in my opinion, to get a crazy contract. If he continues to be a very elite player, then I think the O's may be forced to trade him after the 2017 season (or maybe during that season) to get the most out of him that they can. I don't want that to happen, but I think that's a very likely scenario.
I think you may be right. But they may have to trade him next winter to get the most value.
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