Caleb Joseph ranked 4th best catcher in MLB

[DrungoHazewood]

My guess is that it's not who's the best catcher but who performed best in 2015? Jonathan Lucroy is 15th on the list. Even so I don't understand the methodology, or that it would show anything new that isn't beating a dead horse.

Why did they start multiplying stuff, then adding it together willy-nilly? Why both WAR and it's well-intentioned-but-misunderstood cousin dWAR? Why not just WAR with an added framing component? I think I know why - the author was just makin' stuff up.

[CaptainRedbeard]

While we're bring this discussion up again, I might as well put something in here that I don't think was discussed: The fangraphs crowdsourcing for Wieters' contract:

Median Years: 4

Median AAV: $12 million

Total: $48 million

Average Years: 3.7

Average AAV: $12.6 million

Total: $47.1 million

Will the Orioles extend Wieters a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?

Yes: 64%. No: 36%.

Will Wieters accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?

No: 69%. Yes: 31%.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

31% thought he would accept the QO. 64% thought the Orioles would offer the QO. The Orioles did what most people thought was the most rational course of action. There'd be even more outrage if they hadn't offered at all. This was not a good situation from the start.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Why did they start multiplying stuff, then adding it together willy-nilly? Why both WAR and it's well-intentioned-but-misunderstood cousin dWAR? Why not just WAR with an added framing component? I think I know why - the author was just makin' stuff up.

Yeah I don't understand that in the slightest. I was just saying, even if you did that same sort of valuation as a 2016 projection, it wouldn't come out with Joseph at #4 (even at full playing time).

[Number5]

While we're bring this discussion up again, I might as well put something in here that I don't think was discussed: The fangraphs crowdsourcing for Wieters' contract:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

31% thought he would accept the QO. 64% thought the Orioles would offer the QO. The Orioles did what most people thought was the most rational course of action. There'd be even more outrage if they hadn't offered at all. This was not a good situation from the start.

Clearly. The media was clearly of the mind that the Orioles should extend the QO. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR called it a "no-brainer." Wieters accepting the QO came as a surprise to most.

[TouchemAll]

CJ's agent just stashed this for future negotiation. :rofl:

[Can_of_corn]

Why did they start multiplying stuff, then adding it together willy-nilly? Why both WAR and it's well-intentioned-but-misunderstood cousin dWAR? Why not just WAR with an added framing component? I think I know why - the author was just makin' stuff up.

And why OPS and not something weighted for ballpark like wOBA?

[Number5]

Now I'm confused by your confusion. If Wieters has a decent 2016, I think he could command something close to the 5/80ish contract that Russell Martin got from the Jays. If he'd turned down the QO and accepted some kind of shorter, less lucrative FA contract this winter, then he'd have cost himself a chance at a much bigger payoff. In the meantime, accepting the QO offer gives him a substantial, one-year salary while allowing to reestablish his FA value. Worse comes to worse, even if he has a so-so 2016, I'd wager that he could still land something like that 2/24 contract on the open market next winter, which would mean that he's not losing any money over the period of time being discussed (i.e., 3/40 signed this winter covering 2016-2018 vs. the QO plus a two-year deal in 2017-2018).

The basic point is what I said above: taking the QO = a big salary in 2016 with the opportunity to build his 2017 FA value towards a better deal than he could've gotten this winter, given his injury shortened 2014-2015 seasons and lingering questions about his health. I really don't know how to clarify it further.

I'm sorry, but the points you make seem to be better planks for the platform that opposes your side of the argument. The player thinking he is worth that kind of money and would be worth at least 2/$24.2 even if he lays an egg this year is every reason for him to reject the QO, as many others in the same situation have done. I guess I'm just thick-headed, but your points are having the opposite effect on my thinking than you are intending.

[Tony-OH]

Excatly. Don't forget, the O's got burned with Markakis last year. They thought there wouldn't be a market, but he got 4/$40M coming off .685 and .725 OPS seasons, and everyone on the board is asking how we let him walk with nothing back. Wieters is a much better player relative to his position than Markakis.

Really? I didn't hear that at all. Not even Frobby wanted Markakis back for the amount of money the orioles were going to have to pay him. Buying him out was the smart thing to do. At the end of the day, Duquette made a poor decision to offer a 30-year old catcher a $16 million contract when he had a perfectly capable catcher on his roster for $14 million less. It wasn't a smart gamble and it cost him and the O's.

[Tony-OH]

Now I'm confused by your confusion. If Wieters has a decent 2016, I think he could command something close to the 5/80ish contract that Russell Martin got from the Jays. If he'd turned down the QO and accepted some kind of shorter, less lucrative FA contract this winter, then he'd have cost himself a chance at a much bigger payoff. In the meantime, accepting the QO offer gives him a substantial, one-year salary while allowing to reestablish his FA value. Worse comes to worse, even if he has a so-so 2016, I'd wager that he could still land something like that 2/24 contract on the open market next winter, which would mean that he's not losing any money over the period of time being discussed (i.e., 3/40 signed this winter covering 2016-2018 vs. the QO plus a two-year deal in 2017-2018).

The basic point is what I said above: taking the QO = a big salary in 2016 with the opportunity to build his 2017 FA value towards a better deal than he could've gotten this winter, given his injury shortened 2014-2015 seasons and lingering questions about his health. I really don't know how to clarify it further.

Exactly. Unfortunately, this situation has really stumped some normally smart baseball people. If you look at the entire situation, there was little reason to believe Wieters was going to get a better offer than a $16 million season to rebuild his value. I mean, how dumb was the QO that Boros actually advised to take it?

[Tony-OH]

Why did they start multiplying stuff, then adding it together willy-nilly? Why both WAR and it's well-intentioned-but-misunderstood cousin dWAR? Why not just WAR with an added framing component? I think I know why - the author was just makin' stuff up.

BTW, just to be clear, as much as I like Joseph, I don't think he's the 4th best catcher in baseball right now.

[Can_of_corn]

You can't think of these things in a vacuum. With a decent catcher in fold and a lot of other holes to fill, the Orioles couldn't afford to take the risk of Sisters accepting no matter how small.

Odd nickname...

[Number5]

Exactly. Unfortunately, this situation has really stumped some normally smart baseball people. If you look at the entire situation, there was little reason to believe Wieters was going to get a better offer than a $16 million season to rebuild his value. I mean, how dumb was the QO that Boros actually advised to take it?

Tony, I know that you were one of the few that was opposed to offering the QO at the time. Many seem to be voicing opposition now in hindsight, but you and a very few others said so at the time. I disagreed then, and still think offering the QO was a logical decision. His accepting it was surprising to me. I am curious, though, as to where you heard that Boras advised Wieters to accept the QO. This is the first I have heard it suggested that this was Boras' advice. In fact, I have read others comment that they suppose that it was strictly Wieters' decision.

[Frobby]

While we're bring this discussion up again, I might as well put something in here that I don't think was discussed: The fangraphs crowdsourcing for Wieters' contract:

Median Years: 4

Median AAV: $12 million

otal: $48 million

Average Years: 3.7

Average AAV: $12.6 million

Total: $47.1 million

Will the Orioles extend Wieters a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?

Yes: 64%. No: 36%.

Will Wieters accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?

No: 69%. Yes: 31%.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

31% thought he would accept the QO. 64% thought the Orioles would offer the QO. The Orioles did what most people thought was the most rational course of action. There'd be evenmore outrage if they hadn't offered at all. This was not a good situation from the start.

I think the real question here is whether it was reasonable to expect there would be 4/$48 mm offers out there for Wieters. By the way, I think MLBTR projected 4/$64 mm. If you believed Wieters would get offers in that range, then I think you had to give him the QO and assume he would turn it down. I think the critics would say, the Orioles' front office should have much more knowledge about what the market is than some random group of fans who voted on Fangraphs, and they should have known that Wieters' market wasn't that strong and made their QO decision accordingly.

[Can_of_corn]

I think the real question here is whether it was reasonable to expect there would be 4/$48 mm offers out there for Wieters. By the way, I think MLBTR projected 4/$64 mm. If you believed Wieters would get offers in that range, then I think you had to give him the QO and assume he would turn it down. I think the critics would say, the Orioles' front office should have much more knowledge about what the market is than some random group of fans who voted on Fangraphs, and they should have known that Wieters' market wasn't that strong and made their QO decision accordingly.

The group of fans that voted on Fangraphs were not shocked by the price of free agent pitching this offseason.

[CheeryO]

Tony, I know that you were one of the few that was opposed to offering the QO at the time. Many seem to be voicing opposition now in hindsight, but you and a very few others said so at the time. I disagreed then, and still think offering the QO was a logical decision. His accepting it was surprising to me. I am curious, though, as to where you heard that Boras advised Wieters to accept the QO. This is the first I have heard it suggested that this was Boras' advice. In fact, I have read others comment that they suppose that it was strictly Wieters' decision.

When was "at the time"? If the conversation occurred midway through the season, then I could see most people thinking Wieters would right the ship, return to his old form, and brush aside the QO when offered to him. It wouldn't be surprising to me if many of those arguing for offering the QO in the summer would later change their minds toward the end of the season when it was clear Wieters was still far from his old self.

I don't mind that Wieters accepted the qualifying offer since it's quite possible he could have a big bounce back season this year.