Not so fast when calling Manny a 30m/yr player

[wildcard]

I am sure you guys will correct me if I am wrong but I have only found 4 position players that have signed contracts that will pay them 30m/yr or more. They are ARod, Miggy Cabrera, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. That's it. Let's see what those guys had to do to get a team to pay them at that level.

ARod signed with the Yankees at age 32 in 2008. His contract paid him over 30m in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. By the time he signed that contract he had been:

3 time MVP

Hit at least 40 homer season 8 times.

Led the league in homers 5 times

Drive in at least 100 RBI 11 times

Led the league in RBI twice

Hit for over 1.000 OPS 6 times

Hit for over .900 OPS 10 times

Been an All-Star 11 times

3 times GG winner

Miggy Cabrera has yet to make 30m/yr. But he signed a contract in 2014 at the age of 30 that will pay 30m for 2018-21 and 32m in 2022-23. At the time the contract was signed Miggy had:

2 time MVP

Been a batting champ 3 times

Led the league in OBP 3 times

Led the league in slugging 2 times

Led the league in OPS 2 times

Had an OPS over 1.000 3 times

Had an OPs over .900 8 times

Been an All-Star 8 times

Mike Trout has not yet made 30m per year. But he signed a contract in 2014 at age 22 that will pay him 33.25m in 2018-2020. At the time of the contract signing he had:

Been 2nd in the MVP voting 2 times

Won Rookie of the year at age 21

Hit over .320 2 times

Had a .399 OBP or better twice

Had over a .900 OPS twice

Scored 100 run or more 2 twice

Led the league in steals once

Albert Pujols has not yet made 30m per year. His contract that he sign in 2011 at the age of 31 will pay him 30M in 2021. At the time of the signing he had:

3 times MVP

Voted Rookie of the year

Batting Champion 1 time

League the league in slugging and OPS 3 times

Led the league in OBP once

Had over a .400 OBP 9 times

Had over a 1.000 OPS 8 times

Had over a .900 OPS 11 times

9 times All Star

2 time GG winner

Manny Machado

4th in the MVP once

Never hit .300

Never had a .900 OBP

2 time All Star

Led the league in doubles once

Never hit 40 homer

Scored 100 runs once

2 times GG winner

1 times Platinum Glove winner

Manny could grow into a 30m/yr guy but his resume is not there yet.

[BohKnowsBmore]

You have to consider league inflation. I doubt that Manny's deal will actually reach $30M AAV just because of purchased arbitration years and a potential for opt-outs, but I think it should easily compare with Stanton's contract.

[weams]

You have to consider league inflation. I doubt that Manny's deal will actually reach $30M AAV just because of purchased arbitration years and a potential for opt-outs, but I think it should easily compare with Stanton's contract.

Trout, Harper, Manny, Stanton post opt-out...and many behind them to follow.

[weams]

You have to consider league inflation. I doubt that Manny's deal will actually reach $30M AAV just because of purchased arbitration years and a potential for opt-outs, but I think it should easily compare with Stanton's contract.

Some of his years will pay that. And I don't think he extends.

[Aristotelian]

I agree to an extent. He has established his defense as elite level. He is not quite there offensively. His first three years the bat has been good but not great, ending up around .745 each year. Last year he took a clear step forward, OPSing 100 points higher than his previous average. Even so, he still has 100 points to go before he gets to Trout's established career average.

That said, Stanton is a $30M player, never hit 40 HR, and plays terrible defense. I would take Manny over Stanton right now. 35 may be the new 40 with the strikezone and PED testing. Bump that OPS another 50 points, slide Manny to SS, and $30M is attainable.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Some of his years will pay that. And I don't think he extends.

I bet several of the years will pay that. I am just guessing that it's something like 10 years $295M if it gets done, with escalating annual salaries.

[weams]

I bet several of the years will pay that. I am just guessing that it's something like 10 years $295M if it gets done, with escalating annual salaries.

I agree.

He'll get tons more than Heyward did. Think the Stanton deal

[Frobby]

I agree that it's not a complete no-brainer that Manny will earn $30 mm in his FA years. Offensive and defensive contributions are not equal when it comes to compensation. But with the salary inflation we've seen in recent years, I do think he'll get that. He's worth more than that.

[ShoelesJoe]

Some of his years will pay that. And I don't think he extends.

If that's true then the smart move by the Orioles would be to trade Machado for as much as we can get, as soon as we can. It'll hurt for sure, but the team can't afford to let him walk and only get a draft pick as compensation.

[Babypowder]

I agree to an extent. He has established his defense as elite level. He is not quite there offensively. His first three years the bat has been good but not great, ending up around .745 each year. Last year he took a clear step forward, OPSing 100 points higher than his previous average. Even so, he still has 100 points to go before he gets to Trout's established career average.

That said, Stanton is a $30M player, never hit 40 HR, and plays terrible defense. I would take Manny over Stanton right now. 35 may be the new 40 with the strikezone and PED testing. Bump that OPS another 50 points, slide Manny to SS, and $30M is attainable.

Stanton plays a less demanding defensive position, but he plays it pretty well according to both DRS and UZR/150.

[wildcard]

Giancarlo Stanton has not made 30m/yr yet. He signed a contract in 2014 at age 25 that will pay him 32m/yr in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Before he signed the contract he had:

Been voted 2nd in the MVP once

Led the league in homers once

Led the league in slugging 2 times

Have two years with an OPS of over .900

He has achieved more offensively than Manny so far. I think a lot depends on how the league looks at Manny's two surgically repaired knees. Both of Manny's knee surgeries were more extensive than Stanton's one knee surgery to remove bone chips. It may be harder for teams to commit to a 10 year contract with Manny.

However, I do see the point that is being made. With a year of offense at the .900 OPS level Manny could reach Stanton level when Manny's defense is considered.

[wildcard]

Josh Hamilton

Hamilton will make 30m/yr in 2016-17. He signed that contract in 2012 at the the age of 31. At that point he had:

Been the MVP 1 time

Been a batting champion once

Led the league in slugging, RBI and OPS once

Had over 100 RBI 3 times

Had over 1.000 OPS once

Had over .900 OPS 4 times

Been an All Star 5 times

However his known addictions at the time for the signing were probably as detrimental to his ability to stay on the field as Manny's knee surgeries.

[weams]

Giancarlo Stanton has not made 30m/yr yet. He signed a contract in 2014 at age 25 that will pay him 32m/yr in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Before he signed the contract he had:

Been voted 2nd in the MVP once

Led the league in homers once

Led the league in slugging 2 times

Have two years with an OPS of over .900

He has achieved more offensively than Manny so far. I think a lot depends on how the league looks at Manny's two surgically repaired knees. Both of Manny's knee surgeries were more extensive than Stanton's one knee surgery to remove bone chips. It may be harder for teams to commit to a 10 year contract with Manny.

However, I do see the point that is being made. With a year of offense at the .900 OPS level Manny could reach Stanton level when Manny's defense is considered.

Stanton, face shattered by fastball, hamate removed.

[Frobby]

Here are the biggest long-term deals for 3B:

David Wright -- top salary $20 mm

Kyle Seager -- top salary $19.5 mm

Evan Longoria -- top salary $19.5 mm

Ryan Zimmerman -- top salary $18 mm

Adrian Beltre -- top salary $17 mm

Even considering Manny's age, defensive prowess and inflation, is he really going to make >50% more per season than these guys?

[weams]

Here are the biggest long-term deals for 3B:

David Wright -- top salary $20 mm

Kyle Seager -- top salary $19.5 mm

Evan Longoria -- top salary $19.5 mm

Ryan Zimmerman -- top salary $18 mm

Adrian Beltre -- top salary $17 mm

Even considering Manny's age, defensive prowess and inflation, is he really going to make >50% more per season than these guys?

As an extension? No. As a free agent at 26? Yes. If he is a 35 HR hitter.