"Second-Tier" Free Agents

[25 Nuggets]

Well, some of these free agents (John Jaso *cough*) have already been signed, but the Orioles traded for a second tier player (Trumbo) and signed Kim, so it's not like they've done nothing. Here is a selection of who is left:

Pedro Alvarez - much discussed. Potential Jimmy Paredes upgrade.

Antonio Bastardo - Orioles and Mets in talks for the lefty reliever. Indicates the team may go with an all righty rotation. Also bullpen trade?

Mark Buehrle - considering un-retiring. Reminds me of Jamie Moyer, I think he can pitch for some time yet.

Chris Carter - we've talked about him. Pretty redundant with Trumbo.

Tyler Clippard - good solid reliever. There are worse signings but can't imagine another righty.

Ian Desmond - maybe this guy is "top tier" but teams aren't treating him that way. Anyway, not gonna be an Oriole.

Dexter Fowler - pick attached. Pass.

David Freese - creative option... but if JJ Hardy is toast, here's your opportunity to move Machado to SS.

Yovani Gallardo - pick attached. Pass.

Greg Holland - worth noting. This guy is one year removed from being a dominant closer.

Austin Jackson - not a good fit with the team, however he is a 1.5-2 win player that can play CF.

Howie Kendrick - pick attached. Pass. Also best value is at 2B.

Mat Latos - all about the knee. If he's healthy, he's my #1 SP target at the moment.

Cliff Lee - old, injured, tough call here but we know what he used to be capable of.

Justin Morneau - possible Jimmy Paredes upgrade. Gives the team more of what they need (AVG/OBP) than Alvarez but he is old.

Gerardo Parra - ship has sailed. right?

Alexei Ramirez - has been a really good player for some time, but, can't imagine he's anywhere on the Orioles radar. Probably declining.

Denard Span - yes please! Provided health of course.

So I see 18 free agents in this category, and it doesn't count "third tier" bounce-back candidates like Bronson Arroyo, Matt Joyce and David DeJesus (and Steve Pearce). If the team can correctly identify who may have a bounce back season, many more candidates become viable. They made one such signing with Vance Worley who had a fairly good 2014 season.

[El Gordo]

Forgot about Morneau. If he's healthy he'd be a better choice for DH than Alvarez, better OBP, better splits v RHP/LHP, and still plays a decent 1B. Also not a Boras client.

[Creamsicle]

Can't wait for "Bastard O"

[Aristotelian]

Forgot about Morneau. If he's healthy he'd be a better choice for DH than Alvarez, better OBP, better splits v RHP/LHP, and still plays a decent 1B. Also not a Boras client.

Can't wait for "Bastard O"

I like Morn-O as well. Put me down in favor of Morneau over Alvarez as well.

[bpilktree]

That's a very pessimistic view of our SP. Tillman and Gonzo both had their worst years last year. Why is that a closer representation than previous years, which were much better?

Manny's 2014 more than made up for Pearce's decline, and Davis' improvement helps alleviate the loss of Nelson. These things are fluid, and to state that 78 wins is a ceiling is absurd.

That said, I agree with much of what you say.

I agree Tilman and Gonzo were way off last season with inconsistancy and injuries. They had two or three years in a row before that were they pitched well so last year looks more like an outlier then 2014.

I still think people are missing one major factor in why this team will improve offensivly and that is Johnathon Schoop. He played only a half a season and hit 16 homers. I could easily see a healthy Schoop with a .280 average and 25-30 homers hitting near the top of the order. Hardy is declining for sure but in 2014 we got very little out of second base. Hardy should be able to match that offense with solid D and I expect Schoop to equal or outperform Hardy in his good years.

[sportsfan8703]

Well, some of these free agents (John Jaso *cough*) have already been signed, but the Orioles traded for a second tier player (Trumbo) and signed Kim, so it's not like they've done nothing. Here is a selection of who is left:

Pedro Alvarez - much discussed. Potential Jimmy Paredes upgrade.

Antonio Bastardo - Orioles and Mets in talks for the lefty reliever. Indicates the team may go with an all righty rotation. Also bullpen trade?

Mark Buehrle - considering un-retiring. Reminds me of Jamie Moyer, I think he can pitch for some time yet.

Chris Carter - we've talked about him. Pretty redundant with Trumbo.

Tyler Clippard - good solid reliever. There are worse signings but can't imagine another righty.

Ian Desmond - maybe this guy is "top tier" but teams aren't treating him that way. Anyway, not gonna be an Oriole.

Dexter Fowler - pick attached. Pass.

David Freese - creative option... but if JJ Hardy is toast, here's your opportunity to move Machado to SS.

Yovani Gallardo - pick attached. Pass.

Greg Holland - worth noting. This guy is one year removed from being a dominant closer.

Austin Jackson - not a good fit with the team, however he is a 1.5-2 win player that can play CF.

Howie Kendrick - pick attached. Pass. Also best value is at 2B.

Mat Latos - all about the knee. If he's healthy, he's my #1 SP target at the moment.

Cliff Lee - old, injured, tough call here but we know what he used to be capable of.

Justin Morneau - possible Jimmy Paredes upgrade. Gives the team more of what they need (AVG/OBP) than Alvarez but he is old.

Gerardo Parra - ship has sailed. right?

Alexei Ramirez - has been a really good player for some time, but, can't imagine he's anywhere on the Orioles radar. Probably declining.

So I see 17 free agents in this category, and it doesn't count "third tier" bounce-back candidates like Bronson Arroyo, Matt Joyce and David DeJesus (and Steve Pearce). If the team can correctly identify who may have a bounce back season, many more candidates become viable. They made one such signing with Vance Worley who had a fairly good 2014 season.

Good point. Didn't think of the fact that Bastardo would be more valuable to us because we could have 5 RH SP's. We'd have to have two lefties because you'd be using Matusz or Bastardo probably every night.

[Creamsicle]

i like morn-o as well. Put me down in favor of morneau over alvarez as well.

couldn't say more "no" if i tried.

[Frobby]

That's a ridiculous ceiling. We won 96 in 2014, and Davis and Cruz aren't worth 18 wins. We also didn't have Manny and Wieters for most of that season.

We were a better team than 81 wins last year.

I don't think we were materially better than an 81-win team last year. Our pythogorean record was 83-79.

It's always a bit artificial to set a "ceiling" on what a team can win. There are so many things that can go right or wrong. I didn't foresee us winning 93 in 2012, and I didn't foresee us winning 96 in 2014. But to win 90+ in 2016, quite a few things will have to go right, especially with the starting pitching.

[Creamsicle]

...Howie Kendrick - pick attached. Pass. Also best value is at 2B...

Agree about the pick, but (okay I'm only about 60% serious here) what about moving Mintyfresh from 2B to 3B "someday" in preparation for Chad taking over at SS?

[25 Nuggets]

Can't believe I forgot Denard Span. He should be a big time target, he solves several problems at the same time. IF he is healthy and ready to play. And then there's Boras. So the list grows to 18.

Agree about the pick, but (okay I'm only about 60% serious here) what about moving Mintyfresh from 2B to 3B "someday" in preparation for Chad taking over at SS?

I like the idea of getting Freese better than Kendrick if we want to move Machado to SS. No qualifying offer; he is one year older, and he's been a 2 win player since he became a regular. I don't think he would cost that much either. But, there is the problem with JJ Hardy and if he somehow stays healthy this season, he's the best option anyway.

[sportsfan8703]

I don't think we were materially better than an 81-win team last year. Our pythogorean record was 83-79.

It's always a bit artificial to set a "ceiling" on what a team can win. There are so many things that can go right or wrong. I didn't foresee us winning 93 in 2012, and I didn't foresee us winning 96 in 2014. But to win 90+ in 2016, quite a few things will have to go right, especially with the starting pitching.

With our division the hype is always going to go the the red sox and the yankees. Now you have Toronto and that lineup. They've been getting all the hype since they won the offseason 3 years ago. With Davis and Gallardo, I would feel comfortable saying we were a 90 win team. Not my favorite plan to get there but probably the easiest and most likely.

[weams]

couldn't say more "no" if i tried.

I am so with you on this. Done. Over. Fini.

[oriole]

Fister or Latos, Alvarez, and Parra. I think that's solid. Not great and definitely not in any "winning the offseason" talks unless someone pulls an unlikely Cruz but I think we could win with that.

[El Gordo]

I am so with you on this. Done. Over. Fini.

How is a guy who hits .338 .423 .471 .894 in his last 22 G done?

[El Gordo]

Fister or Latos, Alvarez, and Parra. I think that's solid. Not great and definitely not in any "winning the offseason" talks unless someone pulls an unlikely Cruz but I think we could win with that.

Fister wants 3 years we want to offer a MiL contract. I doubt he's an option. Parra wants four years, and is the consolation prize for team that don't sign Cespedes, Gordon, or Upton.