O's Have Contacted Upton

[Frobby]

I think we don't know how much it is worth right now.

I know some teams are doing some interesting things with their draft pools but I expect it will be some time before a proper study can be made.

Just arbitrarily giving slot values to players would be remarkably short sighted.

My main point is that it has value, and shouldn't be discounted.

I do think, that at some point, the ability to carve off a couple hundred K will provide millions in production for a team.

Obviously, it can, if you don't sacrifice the BPA on the higher pick and you make a good choice on the lower pick.

On a related note, I was thinking about how the study compares with the value the Orioles have gotten from their picks. Those 1-5 picks are worth $54.7 mm?

Hobgood -- Paid him $2 mm, worth 0. Net: -$2 mm.

Wieters -- Paid him $6 mm bonus and $23 mm salary. Worth: 14.6 rWAR * $7 mm = $102 mm. Net: $79 mm.

Matusz -- Paid him $4 mm bonus and $10 mm in salary. Worth: 3.3 rWAR * $7 mm = $23 mm. Net: $9 mm with one year of potential surplus remaining.

Machado -- paid $5.2 mm signing bonus and $1.7 mm in salary to date. Worth: 17.7 rWAR * $7 mm = $124 mm. Net: $117 mm with 3 years of potential surplus value remaining.

All in, those four have been worth $203 mm, with 3 years of Machado and one of Matusz remaining. With a little luck you could milk another $80-90 mm net, So we've done OK, no thanks to Hobgood.

Then there are Bundy and Gausman. I didn't include them because it's too hard to know what we'll get. We have Bundy for 6 years and Gausman for 5.

[birrman54]

That Hobgood pick is really frustrating. Clear move to avoid spending an extra few million on signing the better options.

[waroriole]

That Hobgood pick is really frustrating. Clear move to avoid spending an extra few million on signing the better options.

Not true. They went light there so they could draft over slots later in the draft. They spent a lot on guys like Coffey. Also, there wasn't a lot of great talent available where they took Hobgood.

[Frobby]

Not true. They went light there so they could draft over slots later in the draft. They spent a lot on guys like Coffey. Also, there wasn't a lot of great talent available where they took Hobgood.

There was plenty of talent available -- Mike Trout, Kyle Seager, Jason Kipnis, Nolan Arenado, Mike Leake, A.J. Pollack, Brandon Belt, Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Dustin Ackley, Drew Storen, and Garrett Richards, to name a few.

The Hobgood pick turned out badly, but I'm not going to obsess about it any more. Five of our six top-5 picks have made the majors, including one potential superstar and one above-average major league regular. Hopefully Gausman has a solid or better career, and we are still waiting to see if Bundy can stay healthy enough to fulfill some part of his potential.

As for 2009, at least we got Givens. He looks to give us a lot of surplus value over the next few years.

[waroriole]

There was plenty of talent available -- Mike Trout, Kyle Seager, Jason Kipnis, Nolan Arenado, Mike Leake, A.J. Pollack, Brandon Belt, Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Dustin Ackley, Drew Storen, and Garrett Richards, to name a few.

The Hobgood pick turned out badly, but I'm not going to obsess about it any more. Five of our six top-5 picks have made the majors, including one potential superstar and one above-average major league regular. Hopefully Gausman has a solid or better career, and we are still waiting to see if Bundy can stay healthy enough to fulfill some part of his potential.

As for 2009, at least we got Givens. He looks to give us a lot of surplus value over the next few years.

In hindsight, yes. The consensus at the time was the Top 2 picks were great and everything after was a crapshoot. Wasn't Ackley selected ahead of Hobgood?

[DrungoHazewood]

There was plenty of talent available -- Mike Trout, Kyle Seager, Jason Kipnis, Nolan Arenado, Mike Leake, A.J. Pollack, Brandon Belt, Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Dustin Ackley, Drew Storen, and Garrett Richards, to name a few.

The Hobgood pick turned out badly, but I'm not going to obsess about it any more. Five of our six top-5 picks have made the majors, including one potential superstar and one above-average major league regular. Hopefully Gausman has a solid or better career, and we are still waiting to see if Bundy can stay healthy enough to fulfill some part of his potential.

As for 2009, at least we got Givens. He looks to give us a lot of surplus value over the next few years.

The desire for self-flagellation is strong among many. But every single team in the history of every single sports draft has some picks every single year about which they could say "if only we'd taken that guy who ended up going later we'd have been better off." I'd bet the best draft (post facto evaluation) in the history of MLB still saw more than half of its first 15 rounds of picks as less valuable than players taken later.

[Ruzious]

How much is a #14 pick worth? According to this, which is a couple years old, it's $20-25M. So that implies that a player with a #14 pick attached as compensation on a, say, four-year deal would have to be worth a bit less than a win a season more than someone without the pick. That's not insubstantial. If it was a comp pick following the 1st round that goes down to maybe half a win a season. Lower round picks less.

And using the way I think - the 14th pick is a reasonable chance to get an excellent prospect. If the cost was just a comp pick, that'd be another story, and I'd be more inclined to go after Upton.

[Frobby]

The desire for self-flagellation is strong among many. But every single team in the history of every single sports draft has some picks every single year about which they could say "if only we'd taken that guy who ended up going later we'd have been better off." I'd bet the best draft (post facto evaluation) in the history of MLB still saw more than half of its first 15 rounds of picks as less valuable than players taken later.

I agree. I was just taking issue with the statement that there wasn't a lot of talent available in that draft.

Also, it's not like the Hobgood selection wasn't widely second-guessed at the time. Joe Jordan went out on a limb on that pick, and the limb snapped and fell off, taking Jordan with it. The fact that Hobgood injured his shoulder makes it hard to judge what his talent level might have been.

[Frobby]

And using the way I think - the 14th pick is a reasonable chance to get an excellent prospect. If the cost was just a comp pick, that'd be another story, and I'd be more inclined to go after Upton.

12th pick: 32/51 have made the majors, 300 WAR

13th pick: 27/51, 304 WAR

14th pick: 34/51 284 WAR.

15th pick: 23/51, 273 WAR

16th pick: 33/51, 284 WAR

31st pick: 18/51, 146 WAR

32nd pick: 26/51, 107 WAR

33rd pick: 20/51, 58 WAR

34th pick: 26/51, 105 WAR

35th pick: 28/51, 158 WAR

So yes, 14 is significantly better than a comp pick. (I gave a range around 14 in case the result for that pick was fluky, but it clearly is in line with others in the 12-16 range.)

[weams]

That Hobgood pick is really frustrating. Clear move to avoid spending an extra few million on signing the better options.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/01/06/pirates-cut-former-top-prospect-tony-sanchez/

Pirates needed to clear a 40-man roster spot and they did so by designating for assignment catcher Tony Sanchez.

Sanchez was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Boston College and his path to the majors was supposed to be a quick one, but instead he’s logged just 155 plate appearances as a big leaguer through age 27 and hasn’t shown much promise in the minors either.

[TonySoprano]

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/01/06/pirates-cut-former-top-prospect-tony-sanchez/

True, but you're using the example of another team that acted like a small-market team. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hobgood was signed, at least in part, due to his sign-ability. 2009 was the year that the Orioles, and 21 other teams (the Dbacks had 2 early picks) that passed on Mike Trout, who was actually the Angels second pick in that round.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree. I was just taking issue with the statement that there wasn't a lot of talent available in that draft.

Also, it's not like the Hobgood selection wasn't widely second-guessed at the time. Joe Jordan went out on a limb on that pick, and the limb snapped and fell off, taking Jordan with it. The fact that Hobgood injured his shoulder makes it hard to judge what his talent level might have been.

Hobgood was an almost perfect copy of Chris Smith's bio. Pitcher widely panned as an overdraft as a top 10 (Smith went #7 overall in 2001), hurt almost immediately if not prior to the draft, and never had anything close to a healthy season to judge talent by. Smith pitched 53 innings in the low minors before being released. He even had the "maybe they should turn him into a hitter" thing going on after some pretty good college batting numbers.

[Frobby]

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/01/06/...-tony-sanchez/

Pirates needed to clear a 40-man roster spot and they did so by designating for assignment catcher Tony Sanchez.

Sanchez was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Boston College and his path to the majors was supposed to be a quick one, but instead he?s logged just 155 plate appearances as a big leaguer through age 27 and hasn?t shown much promise in the minors either.

The no. 3 pick from that draft, Donovan Tate, also has never made it to the majors. He had a .624 OPS in high A at age 24 last season. So Hobgood certainly isn't alone at the top of that draft. However, the 8 guys drafted immediately below him all have played in the majors.

[abbott]

The no. 3 pick from that draft, Donovan Tate, also has never made it to the majors. He had a .624 OPS in high A at age 24 last season. So Hobgood certainly isn't alone at the top of that draft. However, the 8 guys drafted immediately below him all have played in the majors.

The major league amateur draft is a crap shoot and that is why the #14 pick so many are scared to give up doesn't mean much to me. There are no sure things and Hobgood was no such thing anyway. But the Orioles take slotting and sign ability into account so you can never be certain that their 1st pick is the best player available. And when drafting HS kids, you don't draft for need, you draft for talent, since high schoolers generally don't debut at 18 or 19 like Griffey and Harper.

Right now the O's depth chart for the OF is Jones, Reimold and FLaherty, with Trumbo slotted at 1B. Parades is the DH

So, apparently, Walker, Alvarez and Mancini are the additions.

Are you comfortable with that?

[25 Nuggets]

The major league amateur draft is a crap shoot and that is why the #14 pick so many are scared to give up doesn't mean much to me. There are no sure things and Hobgood was no such thing anyway. But the Orioles take slotting and sign ability into account so you can never be certain that their 1st pick is the best player available. And when drafting HS kids, you don't draft for need, you draft for talent, since high schoolers generally don't debut at 18 or 19 like Griffey and Harper.

Right now the O's depth chart for the OF is Jones, Reimold and FLaherty, with Trumbo slotted at 1B. Parades is the DH

So, apparently, Walker, Alvarez and Mancini are the additions.

Are you comfortable with that?

Give me Upton for that #14 pick and I don't want a 1 year deal either. Heck, give me both Davis and Upton and raise the ticket prices.

BUT, that OF depth is not updated. Kim is expected to start and Rickard and Hoes are likely both slotted ahead of Walker, Alvarez and Mancini. The team needs one more impact bat to stay competitive IMO but their depth chart is not so dire.