Just go trade for Jay Bruce or Markakis

[Sir_Loin]

He's the first backup if they fail to get Fowler

[Redskins Rick]

He's the first backup if they fail to get Fowler

So the Orioles do have enough prospects that would satisfy the Reds?

[McLovin]

He Cruzed it for a month or two. Seriously Knee.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/74403396/reds-jay-bruce-has-knee-surgery

That was 2014, he was healthy last year.

[Sir_Loin]

So the Orioles do have enough prospects that would satisfy the Reds?

Yes they do. They would rather just get Fowler, but are worried about the ChiSox coming in last minute on him. However, they are confident they can land him.

[weams]

That was 2014, he was healthy last year.

So he Cruzed it after they didn't trade him.

[weams]

I'd MUCH rather have Jay Bruce than Dexter Fowler OR Pedro Alvarez OR Austin Jackson.

He's a much more proven commodity and has a big power bat that would be even more powerful at OPCY. He is locked up for 3 years and is at about an average of 12-13 m.He is a decent fielder, and hows this. Almost EXACTLY 50 years later, the Orioles could acquire a RF from the Reds ALSO from Beaumont Texas, who many in the Reds organization said was declining as a player. How cool would THAT be? No, he sure isnt Frank Robinson, but Jay Bruce MIGHT be just the player the Orioles could use. I just hope we dont have to give up a ton to get him/

He would be had for the money and Mike Wright I think.

[Ruzious]

Last season, he was HEALTHY for the entire season and had a 97 OPS+. Given what his salary is, I wouldn't touch him even if we didn't have to give up anything to get him.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I think the argument in favor of a Bruce bounce-back would have to revolve around (a) 2014 being an injury-affected down season and (b) 2015 being a particularly BABIP-unlucky season.

As to 2014, I think the argument that Bruce's injury played a major role is fairly straightforward. He'd been one player (120ish wRC+/OPS+, .225ish ISO, 10% BB rate, 35% hard contact rate, average to above-average COF defense, playing basically every day) remarkably consistently for four years. Almost Adam Jones sort of consistency, actually, especially in the baseball card stats.

Then he fell off precipitously in virtually every aspect of the game in 2014, at age 27. ISO drops by 60-70 points, GB rate skyrockets, K rate reaches a career high, steep drop in hard contact, defense is significantly worse across the board. Given that such a comprehensive ability nosedive is fairly unusual at that age, and that he had a rather significant in-season knee surgery in May, I think it's fair to conclude that his horrendous 2014 season could have been largely related to the effects of the injury.

Which leaves us with 2015. At first blush, I agree, it appears that his season indicates merely a continuation of the regression in his skillset. But I'm not so sure that's the case; in fact, I think in many ways, he was much closer to the 2010-2013 Jay Bruce than the 2014 version. Just a few bald comparisons of the three faces of Bruce:

BB rate

2010-13: 9.9%

2014: 8.1%

2015: 8.9%

K rate

2010-13: 24.7%

2014: 27.3%

2015: 22.3%

ISO

2010-13: .227

2014: .156

2015: .209

GB rate

2010-13: 36.2%

2014: 45.2%

2015: 37.0%

Hard Contact

2010-13: 35.7%

2014: 32.9%

2015: 35.4%

BABIP

2010-13: .309

2014: .269

2015: .251

In essence, most of the constituent aspects of his offensive performance already have bounced back. At least to some extent. The laggard is that BABIP, which somehow dipped even lower than it had in 2014. Which in turn dragged his batting average down to .226, despite a career-low K rate. *IF* he had posted a batting average in line with his 2010-2013 norms, with his 2015 BB rate and ISO, he would have had a line of .262/.330/.470/.800 and an OPS+ right around 115. In other words, if his BABIP hadn't been so bad, Bruce actually would have been pretty solid.

[CONTINUED IN NEXT POST TO AVOID EXCESSIVE LENGTH]

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[TheBee]

I like the idea of Bruce a lot. He just doesn't add anything to our lineup we don't already have in spades (power, strikeouts, low OBP). Fowler does.

This is where I am

[JLee2027]

Mike Wright, struggled at every level, 2nd time through aced it. To me, that's a very interesting history, clearly he learns each level, adopts, and conquers.

I would hesitate to trade him, as he has already had his MLB "struggle period".

[Crazysilver03]

Aug 1 to Oct 4: .178 .219 .357 .575 What happened?

This. I have laughed seeing articles asking if the O's have the prospects or not to swing a deal. It shouldn't take much to acquire him since the Reds have no reason to hang on to him and his salary.

[McLovin]

It shouldn't take much to acquire him since the Reds have no reason to hang on to him and his salary.

Sure they do. His value isn't going to get worse, and they could gamble they could get more at the deadline.

[Tony-OH]

He would be had for the money and Mike Wright I think.

Can't imagine a scenario where that's all the Reds would want for him unless they feel he's done as a player.

[Crazysilver03]

Sure they do. His value isn't going to get worse, and they could gamble they could get more at the deadline.

After what they traded Frazier for, doesn't seem like they think ahead. It is also a $6+M gamble on the Reds part.

[Tony-OH]

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Where did that post from e16bball come from? That's a great post and I can't find it through search.