Bad Spring Record is Historically Bad for Regular Season (10 Yr Sample)

[sipper65]

I've never put any weight into spring training records, but the O's horrible record to start the spring had me wondering. Over the last 10 springs, the team with the worst winning percentage had the following regular season record:

2006 Nationals 71-91

2007 White Sox 72-90

2008 Giants 72-90

2009 Dbacks 70-92

2010 Pirates 57-105

2011 Astros 56-106

2012 Indians 68-94

2013 Angels 78-84

2014 Phillies 73-89

2015 Rangers 88-74

If it weren't for last year's Rangers, there's not a winning record on here. The average record for these teams is 71-91.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the World Series? Here are the spring records for the last 10 World Series Champs:

2006 Cardinals 15-14

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Phillies 12-18

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Giants 23-12

2011 Cardinals 14-16

2012 Giants 18-15

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Giants 17-12

2015 Royals 20-10

Other than the '08 Phillies, teams are at least sniffing .500 or better. The average record is 18-14.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the AL East? Here are the spring records for the last 10 AL East Champs:

2006 Yankees 15-16

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Rays 18-8

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Rays 20-8

2011 Yankees 13-15

2012 Yankees 18-12

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Orioles 13-9

2015 Blue Jays 19-13

All except 2 had winning records, but the 2 that didn't were barely under .500. The average record is 17-12.

If the O's continue to play this poorly the rest of the spring, the data above doesn't do much to give us hope. But I know I know I know I know it's just spring, and I think we'll be fine. It was just interesting to look up the numbers.

[isestrex]

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[turtlebowl]

Great research. I think we can all agree these games don't matter. One thing that is fact though regardless where you play a game of baseball the team with the most talent on the field on that given day has the best chance to win. I really want to see some wins to feel a little better about this thing.

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[Camden_yardbird]

Okay. Lets hit up some more stats. Of the 10 pitchers most commonly expected to make the team (minus Tillman and Gallardo who haven't started and McFarland because...hes injured) the pitchers have given up 21 runs in 23 innings...Terrible.

Take out the first starts by Gonzalez and Ubaldo and that number falls to 9 runs in 21.2 innings. That's a 3.81 ERA. Far from great but still not terrible. What needs to be realized is a vast number of these runs and subsequent loses are a result of a lot of pitchers who are good distance away from the major leagues. And the lack of runs in late innings for the Orioles is the result of a weak batch of position players in the high minors for the Orioles.

[TouchemAll]

I've never put any weight into spring training records, but the O's horrible record to start the spring had me wondering. Over the last 10 springs, the team with the worst winning percentage had the following regular season record:

2006 Nationals 71-91

2007 White Sox 72-90

2008 Giants 72-90

2009 Dbacks 70-92

2010 Pirates 57-105

2011 Astros 56-106

2012 Indians 68-94

2013 Angels 78-84

2014 Phillies 73-89

2015 Rangers 88-74

If it weren't for last year's Rangers, there's not a winning record on here. The average record for these teams is 71-91.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the World Series? Here are the spring records for the last 10 World Series Champs:

2006 Cardinals 15-14

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Phillies 12-18

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Giants 23-12

2011 Cardinals 14-16

2012 Giants 18-15

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Giants 17-12

2015 Royals 20-10

Other than the '08 Phillies, teams are at least sniffing .500 or better. The average record is 18-14.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the AL East? Here are the spring records for the last 10 AL East Champs:

2006 Yankees 15-16

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Rays 18-8

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Rays 20-8

2011 Yankees 13-15

2012 Yankees 18-12

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Orioles 13-9

2015 Blue Jays 19-13

All except 2 had winning records, but the 2 that didn't were barely under .500. The average record is 17-12.

If the O's continue to play this poorly the rest of the spring, the data above doesn't do much to give us hope. But I know I know I know I know it's just spring, and I think we'll be fine. It was just interesting to look up the numbers.

The numbers don't lie I laugh when I see that ST don't mean a thing BS.

[scOtt]

In Buck We Trust. Look who he's playing, like he says, this early when he can spare the innings or the ABs. He's playing our depth chart, not our team. Pitcher's 2nd starts are looking much better. Couple standouts already. Buck gushed about Rickard on the broadcast today. Jason Garcia has impressed. Bundy and Gausman both. 0-8-1? This will get better.

e: RICK-erd from the broadcast today. I thought it was ric-KARD.

[scOtt]

In Buck We Trust. Look who he's playing, like he says, this early when he can spare the innings or the ABs. He's playing our depth chart, not our team. Pitcher's 2nd starts are looking much better. Couple standouts already. Buck gushed about Rickard on the broadcast today. Jason Garcia has impressed. Bundy and Gausman both. 0-8-1? This will get better.

Not to mention we've only had 3 (?) home games so far. Travel roster every day.

[scOtt]

The numbers don't lie I laugh when I see that ST don't mean a thing BS.

I laugh when I see people give credence to the first 14 days of full squad workouts. Still 27 days til April 4.

[JLee2027]

Since Buck has been manager, let's compare Orioles Spring Training records and regular season.

Spring 2015 12-19 .387

Regular Season 81-81 .500

Spring 2014 13-9 .591

Regular Season 96-66 .593

Spring 2013 19-9 .679

Regular Season 85-77 .525

Spring 2012 11-13 .458

Regular Season 93-69 .574

Spring 2011 15-15 .500

Regular Season 69-93 .426

There is no obvious pattern here...

[Fla_O'sfan]

Not to mention we've only had 3 (?) home games so far. Travel roster every day.

Actually, four home games where they've been out scored 29-11. I've been to a couple and they have not looked good to the naked eye. They really need to win a few games soon before it becomes a story.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've never put any weight into spring training records, but the O's horrible record to start the spring had me wondering. Over the last 10 springs, the team with the worst winning percentage had the following regular season record:

...

If the O's continue to play this poorly the rest of the spring, the data above doesn't do much to give us hope. But I know I know I know I know it's just spring, and I think we'll be fine. It was just interesting to look up the numbers.

I think there may be some slight correlation between spring success/failure and regular season success, possibly more so at the extremes. But it's weak. It's basically one month's data with lineups and pitching that are far more varied than even expanded September rosters. It's a weaker version of trying to correlate April records or numbers to full-season. There's something there, but there's an awful lot of noise on the signal. Maybe, probably, more noise than signal.

[schittenden]

This is old, but it shows there is almost no correlation between spring training records and regular season records. It's closer to random than it is to correlation.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-spring-training-record-regular-season-2011-2

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[TINSTAAPP]

2006 Cardinals 15-14

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Phillies 12-18

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Giants 23-12

2011 Cardinals 14-16

2012 Giants 18-15

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Giants 17-12

2015 Royals 20-10

Half of those teams are within three games of .500. That anecdote doesn't tell us anything. Plus most of us are smart enough to realize how random and fluky the baseball postseason is. What is the spring training record of all the teams that made the playoffs? That'll give us a better idea about the correlation between spring training record and regular season success.

[Tx Oriole]

I've never put any weight into spring training records, but the O's horrible record to start the spring had me wondering. Over the last 10 springs, the team with the worst winning percentage had the following regular season record:

2006 Nationals 71-91

2007 White Sox 72-90

2008 Giants 72-90

2009 Dbacks 70-92

2010 Pirates 57-105

2011 Astros 56-106

2012 Indians 68-94

2013 Angels 78-84

2014 Phillies 73-89

2015 Rangers 88-74

If it weren't for last year's Rangers, there's not a winning record on here. The average record for these teams is 71-91.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the World Series? Here are the spring records for the last 10 World Series Champs:

2006 Cardinals 15-14

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Phillies 12-18

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Giants 23-12

2011 Cardinals 14-16

2012 Giants 18-15

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Giants 17-12

2015 Royals 20-10

Other than the '08 Phillies, teams are at least sniffing .500 or better. The average record is 18-14.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the AL East? Here are the spring records for the last 10 AL East Champs:

2006 Yankees 15-16

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Rays 18-8

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Rays 20-8

2011 Yankees 13-15

2012 Yankees 18-12

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Orioles 13-9

2015 Blue Jays 19-13

All except 2 had winning records, but the 2 that didn't were barely under .500. The average record is 17-12.

If the O's continue to play this poorly the rest of the spring, the data above doesn't do much to give us hope. But I know I know I know I know it's just spring, and I think we'll be fine. It was just interesting to look up the numbers.

I am not worried about that.

[thezeroes]

I do believe that Spring Training games can be broke down into different segments.

1) At the beginning of St, teams do not play the bulk of the Twenty-Five Man roster a lot of Innings/At Bats. They tend to use the first ten Games or so to see what the next wave of players has to offer. This is where these 4A players and recent additions to the Forty have the chance to shine or get relegated to Minor League Camp when it eventually opens.

2) The second phase tends to stretch out the players that will be on the Twenty-Five Man Roster. This gives them the ability to improve their timing when hitting and their pitch selection when on the mound. This could also be considered the "Jelling" period for the players that will spend most of the next 7 Months Together.

3) This is the last six to eight games were the Roster gets fine tuned and those on the bubble either make or break the chance to go north. It is also the time that pitchers get the last two starts before the season and should have an inning total at or about at 6 Innings/85 Pitches. Most of the starters on the field will get three at bats against pitchers on the other team that will be in those teams starting rotation. This also goes for the relievers that they see. This is when closers (Britton) come in in the Sixth/Seventh Inning as it is as close to what they will face during the season a at any point in the ST.

4) The last two games are the hardest on the Managers as these are when the top starters at the MiLB level start the games so as to not get one of the five in the rotation injured. The last two spots in the rotation may pitch an inning just as a tune up. The hitters are hoped to get through these game without injuries and usually do not put forth the best effort a field. Usually considered a waste of time as far as preparation for the season other than to get one last look at the potential first call ups.

Havin stated the above as MY Opinion, I look at games eleven through twenty-eight as mor telling of what the Orioles have than One through Ten and the last Two games of Spring Training.