Bad Spring Record is Historically Bad for Regular Season (10 Yr Sample)

[ShaneDawg85]

The talent levels of those teams has far more to do with how the regular season turned out than how they did in spring training. The regulars don't play every day in spring training, the starters don't try to go 6-8 innings each start, the roster is filled with invitees and prospects that aren't going north. There's every reason good teams look horrible and horrible teams look great. Losing sucks no matter the time of year, but when the regulars start playing the whole game and the starters try to go the distance and the results aren't good, then I'll be concerned.

[Larry18]

I do believe that Spring Training games can be broke down into different segments.

1) At the beginning of St, teams do not play the bulk of the Twenty-Five Man roster a lot of Innings/At Bats. They tend to use the first ten Games or so to see what the next wave of players has to offer. This is where these 4A players and recent additions to the Forty have the chance to shine or get relegated to Minor League Camp when it eventually opens.

2) The second phase tends to stretch out the players that will be on the Twenty-Five Man Roster. This gives them the ability to improve their timing when hitting and their pitch selection when on the mound. This could also be considered the "Jelling" period for the players that will spend most of the next 7 Months Together.

3) This is the last six to eight games were the Roster gets fine tuned and those on the bubble either make or break the chance to go north. It is also the time that pitchers get the last two starts before the season and should have an inning total at or about at 6 Innings/85 Pitches. Most of the starters on the field will get three at bats against pitchers on the other team that will be in those teams starting rotation. This also goes for the relievers that they see. This is when closers (Britton) come in in the Sixth/Seventh Inning as it is as close to what they will face during the season a at any point in the ST.

4) The last two games are the hardest on the Managers as these are when the top starters at the MiLB level start the games so as to not get one of the five in the rotation injured. The last two spots in the rotation may pitch an inning just as a tune up. The hitters are hoped to get through these game without injuries and usually do not put forth the best effort a field. Usually considered a waste of time as far as preparation for the season other than to get one last look at the potential first call ups.

Havin stated the above as MY Opinion, I look at games eleven through twenty-eight as mor telling of what the Orioles have than One through Ten and the last Two games of Spring Training.

I'm of this frame of mind as well

[harp6]

I've never put any weight into spring training records, but the O's horrible record to start the spring had me wondering. Over the last 10 springs, the team with the worst winning percentage had the following regular season record:

2006 Nationals 71-91

2007 White Sox 72-90

2008 Giants 72-90

2009 Dbacks 70-92

2010 Pirates 57-105

2011 Astros 56-106

2012 Indians 68-94

2013 Angels 78-84

2014 Phillies 73-89

2015 Rangers 88-74

If it weren't for last year's Rangers, there's not a winning record on here. The average record for these teams is 71-91.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the World Series? Here are the spring records for the last 10 World Series Champs:

2006 Cardinals 15-14

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Phillies 12-18

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Giants 23-12

2011 Cardinals 14-16

2012 Giants 18-15

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Giants 17-12

2015 Royals 20-10

Other than the '08 Phillies, teams are at least sniffing .500 or better. The average record is 18-14.

Do you have hopes of the O's winning the AL East? Here are the spring records for the last 10 AL East Champs:

2006 Yankees 15-16

2007 Red Sox 15-12

2008 Rays 18-8

2009 Yankees 24-10

2010 Rays 20-8

2011 Yankees 13-15

2012 Yankees 18-12

2013 Red Sox 17-17

2014 Orioles 13-9

2015 Blue Jays 19-13

All except 2 had winning records, but the 2 that didn't were barely under .500. The average record is 17-12.

If the O's continue to play this poorly the rest of the spring, the data above doesn't do much to give us hope. But I know I know I know I know it's just spring, and I think we'll be fine. It was just interesting to look up the numbers.

What about those Cubs? Many projections have them as being the best in baseball during the regular season. How many ST games have they won.

I agree that spring training games have some impact on the regular season, but those are usually the games leading up to the season, not the games in the first half of spring training. The second half of ST is when the kiddies get sent to the minor league camp and the regulars start to play regularly. That is when the regular pitchers are beyond tinkering with new pitches and and their mechanics and start to pitch. Right now it is the Kiddies playing and the regular pitchers playing around with their stuff. Nothing to worry about. If March 21 (two weeks before the season) comes around and they continue to still play poorly, then I will start to get concerned.

[DrungoHazewood]

I do believe that Spring Training games can be broke down into different segments.

1) At the beginning of St, teams do not play the bulk of the Twenty-Five Man roster a lot of Innings/At Bats. They tend to use the first ten Games or so to see what the next wave of players has to offer. This is where these 4A players and recent additions to the Forty have the chance to shine or get relegated to Minor League Camp when it eventually opens.

2) The second phase tends to stretch out the players that will be on the Twenty-Five Man Roster. This gives them the ability to improve their timing when hitting and their pitch selection when on the mound. This could also be considered the "Jelling" period for the players that will spend most of the next 7 Months Together.

3) This is the last six to eight games were the Roster gets fine tuned and those on the bubble either make or break the chance to go north. It is also the time that pitchers get the last two starts before the season and should have an inning total at or about at 6 Innings/85 Pitches. Most of the starters on the field will get three at bats against pitchers on the other team that will be in those teams starting rotation. This also goes for the relievers that they see. This is when closers (Britton) come in in the Sixth/Seventh Inning as it is as close to what they will face during the season a at any point in the ST.

4) The last two games are the hardest on the Managers as these are when the top starters at the MiLB level start the games so as to not get one of the five in the rotation injured. The last two spots in the rotation may pitch an inning just as a tune up. The hitters are hoped to get through these game without injuries and usually do not put forth the best effort a field. Usually considered a waste of time as far as preparation for the season other than to get one last look at the potential first call ups.

Havin stated the above as MY Opinion, I look at games eleven through twenty-eight as mor telling of what the Orioles have than One through Ten and the last Two games of Spring Training.

Any 17 games of the regular season have a low correlation to full-season record. 17 spring games are much lower than that.

This piece indicates that it might be reasonable to weight spring training PAs at .445 of a regular season PA. But with some uncertainty or variation depending on player. If you use that as a rule of thumb you could say the Orioles' 0-8 record as the equivalent of being 0-4 with 162 games remaining. That tells you that a projected 85-win team with an observed performance of 0-4 is now a .517 team vice a .525 team, or something like that.

[OFFNY]

o

The Orioles are now 11-15-5 with one game still left to be played in their 2016 Spring Training season.

[OFFNY]

o

The Orioles are now 11-15-5 with one game still left to be played in their 2016 Spring Training season.

And 6-0 to start the regular season.

Woo hoo.