Fangraphs Projections: 245 HR, 21.4 K%

[ExileAngelos]

If you went back over the last 10 years of predictions, which of those mentioned has been more accurate?

This is my first year utilizing projections so I'm not sure.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I noticed you chose the "Depth Charts" projection. I am using ZIPS, Steamer and "Fangraphs" to help me prep for fantasy baseball.

I've noticed "Fangraphs" is the most aggressive of the three and Steamer is the most conservative. ZIPS is closer to Steamer than "Fangraphs."

Just wondering where "Depth Charts" falls in line compared to other three.

Depth Charts is Fangraphs averaging ZIPS and Steamer and manually adjusting for expected playing time. That's the one that you want to use. FANS is not actually a fangraphs projection, those are the average of projections submitted by fans. They are always wildly optimistic. They're sometimes interesting in the cases of prospects who don't have great statistical profiles, but ignore them for all other purposes.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Depth Charts is Fangraphs averaging ZIPS and Steamer and manually adjusting for expected playing time. That's the one that you want to use. FANS is not actually a fangraphs projection, those are the average of projections submitted by fans. They are always wildly optimistic. They're sometimes interesting in the cases of prospects who don't have great statistical profiles, but ignore them for all other purposes.

Also for fantasy baseball, definitely use the auction calculator (whether or not you're drafting auction or snake). It's a fantastic tool that I don't think they advertise enough, particularly if you play in an atypical league. You can set your inputs and export it all to excel to play with it there. Just make sure to use something like a 60 to 70 weight for hitters so that it falls in line with most traditional rankings.

http://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx

[ExileAngelos]

Depth Charts is Fangraphs averaging ZIPS and Steamer and manually adjusting for expected playing time. That's the one that you want to use. FANS is not actually a fangraphs projection, those are the average of projections submitted by fans. They are always wildly optimistic. They're sometimes interesting in the cases of prospects who don't have great statistical profiles, but ignore them for all other purposes.

Good stuff thanks. Makes sense now.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Chiming in with the FLD projections from the link:

14.2 Manny Machado (all hail)

4.8 JJ Hardy

2.7 Chris Davis (presuming 1B I'm sure)

1.7 Caleb Joseph

1.3 Jonathan Schoop

0.5 Matt Wieters

0.4 Francisco Pena

0.1 Nolan Reimold

0.0 Hyun Soo Kim

-0.1 Adam Jones

-0.1 Henry Urrutia

-0.2 Pedro Alvarez (?)

-0.4 Jimmy Paredes

-0.6 Joey Rickard (ouch)

-1.1 Ryan Flaherty (what?)

-1.6 Mark Trumbo

Fielding projections can always be weird. Keep in mind that these are not position adjusted numbers. Trumbo's certainly is based on his past fielding at 1B, which has been good. I don't think the system separates it out for the OF. Flaherty has also had some up and down defensive years, including some pretty bad SS play by UZR. Alvarez's -0.2 is from only 28 projected PA at 1B

[OFFNY]

I understand that, but a lack of patience surely has to be one of the reasons why some sluggers have considerably lower OBP's than others, no?

My point is not about what walks are a product of. My point (and my fear) is that our power hitters that have low OBP's may not take what is given them, and either strike out or hit bad pitches for easy outs instead of taking walks ...... or at the very least, wait until the pitcher has pitched himself into a hitter's count before hacking away.

For all his Ks, Chris Davis walks a lot. Without looking it up his OBP is kinda good. Not great but a plus.

I know that Scott. I was not referring to the Orioles' sluggers with good OBP's, such as Davis and Machado.

I was alluding to our sluggers that do not have good OBP's, such as Wieters, Hardy, Alvarez, Trumbo, and Schoop.

[CaptainRedbeard]

If my math is right, that chart has us scoring 735 runs, so exactly 1/3 of our runs would come from players driving in themselves. That's 22 more runs than last year despite hitting 28 more homers.

I was thinking about this a little more - I believe the depth chart is based on individual projections, so team-dependent counting stats like runs and RBI are based on what the player has done in the past. You can't sum them together and get the projection for the team runs.

Instead you want to look at the Projected Standings page, which has the Orioles scoring the second most runs in baseball (behind the Jays) at 4.64 runs/game. That's based on the team triple slash line from the depth charts and run through the BaseRuns formula, which assumes neutral sequencing.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Keep in mind that this projection doesn't account for strength of schedule (the Orioles have a tough one, so they will probably score a bit less than 4.64 runs/game). Also, if you want to gauge actual relative strength of the offense, you need to park and league adjust. After doing that, I suspect the Orioles offense will fall behind the projections of the Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, and Tigers, and maybe the Dodgers. Still, we project to be around the top 5 offenses in MLB no matter how you look at it.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Fangraphs was a little slow on recognizing it, but they put up an article on how the Orioles could threaten the HR record based on their projections, even with a little commentary about how they're not actually as strikeout-prone as they are considered.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-have-a-shot-at-the-all-time-home-run-record/

The all-time strikeout record is 1,535, set by the 2013 Astros. That team actually even played in the American League. Using the same method from above, the Orioles are projected for about 1,336 strikeouts, or 200 fewer. Put another way, the Orioles project to finish 7% short of the all-time homer record, but 13% short of the all-time strikeout record. Kim just doesn?t look like he?s going to strike out. Machado seldom strikes out. Jones doesn?t strike out that much. The Orioles certainly have a number of strikeout-prone bats, but compared to what they?d need to go right to set the homer mark, they?d need a lot to go wrong to set this record instead.

[CaptainRedbeard]

This is a real pretty graphic.

[25 Nuggets]

This is a real pretty graphic.

Eye catching. Last year Toronto outhit Baltimore in the HR department by 15. This says Baltimore will outhit Toronto by... 25?

Here's something else that looks nice:

Fangraphs Projected team OPS - top 10

.774 Cubs

.765 Rockies

.757 Blue Jays

.753 Dodgers

.752 Tigers

.751 Red Sox

.748 Orioles

.747 Nationals

.745 Astros

.742 Mets

Baltimore is also tied for 11th in wRC+ with Boston and LA, 4th in the AL (Tor, Det, Hou).

[Sessh]

I understand that, but a lack of patience surely has to be one of the reasons why some sluggers have considerably lower OBP's than others, no?

My point is not about what walks are a product of. My point (and my fear) is that our power hitters that have low OBP's may not take what is given them, and either strike out or hit bad pitches for easy outs instead of taking walks ...... or at the very least, wait until the pitcher has pitched himself into a hitter's count before hacking away.

I agree. It was our problem last year. We could take three walks in a row to load the bases leading off the inning and the next three guys will come up with the pitcher on the ropes and all the pressure on him and swing at pitches in the other batters box, swing at pitches Tiger Woods wouldn't even swing at and swing at pitches at eye level and before you know it, we're heading back on the field with a big donut in the runs column for that inning. This stuff infuriated me last season and I fear it's going to be worse this year. Our offense was not on the same page at all. It's like they were all playing for themselves and didn't have a clue what the game situation called for or just didn't care because the only option in their mind was hitting a home run. These guys decided to swing before they got their asses off the bench. I can't stand that stuff.

[JLee2027]

737 runs for the entire year 2016 seems really low to me. 800-850 is what my guy is saying.

[PaulFolk]

737 runs for the entire year 2016 seems really low to me. 800-850 is what my guy is saying.

That seems like a real stretch. Only one team in the majors scored 800 runs last year (the Blue Jays, with 891). Every other team scored 764 or fewer. The O's scored 713.

I think they'll score a few more runs this year, but not 90 more. I wouldn't go past 750.

[FlipTheBird]

Fangraphs is swearing by its projection that Kim is going to be a very solid bat. I think everyone else is more skeptical of that, at the least.

[Frobby]

That seems like a real stretch. Only one team in the majors scored 800 runs last year (the Blue Jays, with 891). Every other team scored 764 or fewer. The O's scored 713.

I think they'll score a few more runs this year, but not 90 more. I wouldn't go past 750.

I estimate 20-50 more than last year, so 733-763. But it partly depends on whether run-scoring conditions are getting better or worse league-wide.