Some impressions of Mark Trumbo

[Redskins Rick]

We don't need a DH/1B/OF with limited defensive skills being paid for his age 31-35 seasons based on an out-of-character peak month at 30. But he's fine while he's here on a 1/9 deal.

So at what point, do you consider his production here and think, that maybe he is the real deal, and a 3-4 deal is not unreasonable?

[weams]

Just curious - What do you think Arrieta's going to get?

I don't know. But think of the posts that would occur over that subject were he an Oriole and not a member of the MLB thread!

[brianod]

We don't need a DH/1B/OF with limited defensive skills being paid for his age 31-35 seasons based on an out-of-character peak month at 30. But he's fine while he's here on a 1/9 deal.

People said the same thing about Chris Davis. Many said Mark Reynolds was more valuable. How'd that work out?

[Aristotelian]

So at what point, do you consider his production here and think, that maybe he is the real deal, and a 3-4 deal is not unreasonable?

I think Drungo's point is that 1B/DH is one of the few places where we have depth in the organization. It's not that Trumbo isn't productive - he is - but the gap between him and the next best player in our organization is much smaller than just about any other position. Mancini or Walker could step right in and replace 80% of Trumbo's production. Filling SS/3B is going to be a much higher priority.

[Ruzious]

They're not comparable cases at all. One has nothing to do with the other, and Mark Trumbo will not get anywhere near $100 million even if he keeps up at this pace. Nelson Cruz didn't, and right now that's his best case scenario.

Nelson Cruz has almost as little to do with what Trumbo makes as Arrieta does. At least Arrieta will be a free agent in the same year as Trumbo and is the same age as Trumbo.

[NickM21]

I think you have to evaluate how much impact Edgar Martinez's coaching (if that's really what it is) will effect his future production. Much like Chris Davis, could he have made a change in his approach that will continue?

[NickM21]

The only way to evaluate it is in hindsight.

Well say he doesn't taper off this year, or as much, as he has in the past after a hot start.

[Sessh]

Well say he doesn't taper off this year, or as much, as he has in the past after a hot start.

Then you're paying someone based on one year and throwing out the rest of his career numbers. Again, we seem to have done this with Jimenez and it hasn't worked out well. Trumbo's career numbers speak louder than

one season's numbers in a contract year. There is much more potential for that to go wrong than right.

[DrungoHazewood]

People said the same thing about Chris Davis. Many said Mark Reynolds was more valuable. How'd that work out?

Those are totally different situations. Davis was under contract at below market rates for many years in his mid-20s, Reynolds was finishing up his arb years. I certainly never suggested dumping Davis for Reynolds. If anything the appropriate comp is Trumbo to Reynolds, who would have ridiculous hot streaks but was an awful defender and has continued to be a well-below-average performer into his 30s as his track record suggested.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think Drungo's point is that 1B/DH is one of the few places where we have depth in the organization. It's not that Trumbo isn't productive - he is - but the gap between him and the next best player in our organization is much smaller than just about any other position. Mancini or Walker could step right in and replace 80% of Trumbo's production. Filling SS/3B is going to be a much higher priority.

Actually, part of my point is that it's far from given that Trumbo will be productive. He's a 30-year-old DH (or -15 OFer) with a .770 OPS. It's almost a given that he won't OPS 1.000 this year or in the future. It's not implausible that Mancini is more productive than Trumbo from 2017-on.

[DrungoHazewood]

So at what point, do you consider his production here and think, that maybe he is the real deal, and a 3-4 deal is not unreasonable?

I don't think there is such a point. Let's say he OPSes 1.000 for the year. But his prior career mark was .760. To me that means his 2017 projection would be maybe .825, with decline from there. To his agent that means he's a 1.000 OPS guy deserving of a 5/100 kind of deal. That's a 2-win player vs a 4-5 win player. You can't bridge that gap. You QO him if that option is available in the CBA and walk away.

[NickM21]

Then you're paying someone based on one year and throwing out the rest of his career numbers. Again, we seem to have done this with Jimenez and it hasn't worked out well. Trumbo's career numbers speak louder than

one season's numbers in a contract year. There is much more potential for that to go wrong than right.

Well that depends on what his asking price is. I agree there is much more potential to go wrong than right if the market allows him to get a (relatively) huge contract. He was a 2-3 win player with the Angels in 2011-2013. The 2014 DBacks ere dreadful, especially after Goldschmidt went down. So I'm calling that a mulligan. Once he went to Seattle, he hit very well later in the year which is not like his typical yearly timeline. So there is some hope he can continue to hit well with the Orioles.

[Can_of_corn]

Actually, part of my point is that it's far from given that Trumbo will be productive. He's a 30-year-old DH (or -15 OFer) with a .770 OPS. It's almost a given that he won't OPS 1.000 this year or in the future. It's not implausible that Mancini is more productive than Trumbo from 2017-on.

Everyone knows the last 100 at bats are the most important at bats.

[DrungoHazewood]

Everyone knows the last 100 at bats are the most important at bats.

Only if you're directly observing them. Otherwise not so much. See offseason enthusiasm for Yovani Gallardo after batters posted a .956 off of him in the last 134 PAs of '15.

[QSII]

Everyone knows the last 100 at bats are the most important at bats.

I think it's plate appearances. Lol.