2016 MLB Draft

[Otter]

Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission (Kan.) H.S.

I am concerned about HS pitchers who make a huge jump in velocity their senior years...

[Can_of_corn]

I am concerned about HS pitchers who make a huge jump in velocity their senior years...

Red flag for me as well.

Of course odds are very good he won't be on the board when the O's pick.

[JayThomas]

Nolan Jones, 3B PA HS Holy Ghost

I don't trust HS bats from that far north ever since the Billy Rowell fiasco. I just don't think they get challenged by enough quality pitching.

[tntoriole]

I made this comment in the game thread the other day after Duquette's comments about how much they focus on pitching. It turns out they don't focus on it near as much as some teams do in the draft.

The MLB draft trends in the last 25 years have certainly gone in the direction of more and pitching from only about 40 percent of the draft picks in 1990 to 53 percent last year.

However, the Orioles at less than 50 percent last year were a bit behind that curve. In the last five drafts, pitchers have made up nearly 53 percent of the players drafted. While it may seem a small difference, when you are talking about 1200 players drafted each year, drafting even a few percentage points less than other teams, spread over five years of drafts can result in having 15-20 fewer pitchers drafted into your system versus another system.

The Rangers have led MLB in pitching heavy draft philosophy at 62.2 percent of their picks over the last five years. They had 23/40 picks pitchers last year compared to Os 20/41.

Over that time, the Rangers picked more pitchers but fewer infielders than the ML draft average but have compensated for that by being more active in the Latin American/international market for infielder supply.

The Diamondbacks at 42.5 percent pitchers of their draft picks in the last five drafts are the lowest in MLB.

In the four drafts under DD, the Orioles have selected 86 pitchers out of 160 picks and the Rangers, the pitching draft heavy focus team, picked pitchers 101 out of 161 picks.

I haven't looked either at the signing differences between organizations which can also reflect true priorities. Picking pitchers and signing pitchers can be different too- if you pick more and some don't sign, then you still have more than if you pick less and don't sign them all.

[Otter]

I made this comment in the game thread the other day after Duquette's comments about how much they focus on pitching. It turns out they don't focus on it near as much as some teams do in the draft.

The MLB draft trends in the last 25 years have certainly gone in the direction of more and pitching from only about 40 percent of the draft picks in 1990 to 53 percent last year.

However, the Orioles at less than 50 percent last year were a bit behind that curve. In the last five drafts, pitchers have made up nearly 53 percent of the players drafted. While it may seem a small difference, when you are talking about 1200 players drafted each year, drafting even a few percentage points less than other teams, spread over five years of drafts can result in having 15-20 fewer pitchers drafted into your system versus another system.

The Rangers have led MLB in pitching heavy draft philosophy at 62.2 percent of their picks over the last five years. They had 23/40 picks pitchers last year compared to Os 20/41.

Over that time, the Rangers picked more pitchers but fewer infielders than the ML draft average but have compensated for that by being more active in the Latin American/international market for infielder supply.

The Diamondbacks at 42.5 percent pitchers of their draft picks in the last five drafts are the lowest in MLB.

In the four drafts under DD, the Orioles have selected 86 pitchers out of 160 picks and the Rangers, the pitching draft heavy focus team, picked pitchers 101 out of 161 picks.

I haven't looked either at the signing differences between organizations which can also reflect true priorities. Picking pitchers and signing pitchers can be different too- if you pick more and some don't sign, then you still have more than if you pick less and don't sign them all.

Interesting stuff; thanks for the research. And add in the fact that Dan has traded pitching prospects, international bonus slots, and draft picks, and it's easy to see why we're hurting for legitimate starting pitching prospects. It's all about quantity with pitching prospects, to counter the inevitable high attrition rate. Dan is basically going into a gunfight with an old six-shooter, while his opponents have semi-automatics with extended magazines....

[Number5]

I made this comment in the game thread the other day after Duquette's comments about how much they focus on pitching. It turns out they don't focus on it near as much as some teams do in the draft.

The MLB draft trends in the last 25 years have certainly gone in the direction of more and pitching from only about 40 percent of the draft picks in 1990 to 53 percent last year.

However, the Orioles at less than 50 percent last year were a bit behind that curve. In the last five drafts, pitchers have made up nearly 53 percent of the players drafted. While it may seem a small difference, when you are talking about 1200 players drafted each year, drafting even a few percentage points less than other teams, spread over five years of drafts can result in having 15-20 fewer pitchers drafted into your system versus another system.

The Rangers have led MLB in pitching heavy draft philosophy at 62.2 percent of their picks over the last five years. They had 23/40 picks pitchers last year compared to Os 20/41.

Over that time, the Rangers picked more pitchers but fewer infielders than the ML draft average but have compensated for that by being more active in the Latin American/international market for infielder supply.

The Diamondbacks at 42.5 percent pitchers of their draft picks in the last five drafts are the lowest in MLB.

In the four drafts under DD, the Orioles have selected 86 pitchers out of 160 picks and the Rangers, the pitching draft heavy focus team, picked pitchers 101 out of 161 picks.

I haven't looked either at the signing differences between organizations which can also reflect true priorities. Picking pitchers and signing pitchers can be different too- if you pick more and some don't sign, then you still have more than if you pick less and don't sign them all.

I understand your point, but I believe your math may be off. The Orioles don't draft 1200 players per season, the league does. I would doubt that the Orioles are drafting 3-4 less pitchers than league average every season, as you have said here. If the Orioles draft percentage of pitchers is 3 below league average, that would work out to slightly more than one pitcher less in a season's draft, wouldn't it? It did seem like the Orioles drafted more position players last year than they usually do, so I'm not so sure they have been regularly below league average in that respect. You quoted the 5-year percentage for the league, but only last year's draft percentage for the Orioles, so we really don't know, based on that.

[tntoriole]

I understand your point, but I believe your math may be off. The Orioles don't draft 1200 players per season, the league does. I would doubt that the Orioles are drafting 3-4 less pitchers than league average every season, as you have said here. If the Orioles draft percentage of pitchers is 3 below league average, that would work out to slightly more than one pitcher less in a season's draft, wouldn't it? It did seem like the Orioles drafted more position players last year than they usually do, so I'm not so sure they have been regularly below league average in that respect. You quoted the 5-year percentage for the league, but only last year's draft percentage for the Orioles, so we really don't know, based on that.

I did not mean to say that the Orioles draft 1200 players per season. Obviously this is 40 players per each of thirty teams. The difference between the Rangers (the most pitching heavy drafting team) and the Orioles (slightly less than MLB average in terms of numbers of pitchers drafted) over the last five years is the Orioles drafted 86 pitchers out of 160 picks and the Rangers drafted 101 out of 161 picks. So that is 15 pitchers more over five years or 3 more per year than the Orioles did. Now the Rangers are the most pitching heavy draft team, so the differences between the Orioles and other teams would be less than that and they have drafted significantly more pitchers than the Diamondbacks, for example, that have picked 68/160 pitchers in the last five years (42.5 percent) Sorry for any confusion.

[weams]

I don't trust HS bats from that far north ever since the Billy Rowell fiasco. I just don't think they get challenged by enough quality pitching.

So you don't think it was something else with Bill?

[Can_of_corn]

So you don't think it was something else with Bill?

That kid Trout worked out OK.

[MachoMachadoMan]

It was about a day out we started seeing reports that Rajsich and the team were zeroing in on Stewart. Still seeing a lot of different names being tossed around on various mocks. Wonder if we aren't showing are cards this year or if it's much more up in the air. Maybe we'll start seeing something more focused tomorrow.

[weams]

[weams]

Reed and Wentz look close.

[weams]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/perez-shelby-fail-mlsb-drug-tests-2/#2ftHUThGecq3YxIy.97

[Can_of_corn]

If Quantrill falls to us at #27 do we take him?

They are probably targeting someone who the draft experts have pegged as a #40 pick.

[weams]

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2016/6/8/11879822/mlb-draft-2016-mock-draft-rankings-consensus

http://www.newsnet5.com/sports/eric-lauer-of-kent-state-university-expects-to-hear-his-name-called-during-mlb-draft

23. Joshua Lowe - St. Louis Cardinals

Lowe has been tied to the Rays at 13th overall by Callis, but Law has him going right here. Similarly, Baseball America has him going just one pick later, but the Padres seem to have their scouting eye on someone else.

24. Cal Quantrill - San Diego Padres

All three mocks have Quantrill going to the Padres. Law and Callis have him going specifically here, while Baseball America seems to think the Padres will use their eighth overall selection to presumably play it a bit safer. According to Law, there's a rumor that a deal has already been worked out between Quantrill and the Padres at this spot.

25. Taylor Trammell - San Diego Padres

While the variance on Trammell is substantial, the middle-projection from Callis has Trammell going right here. With 38 aggregated points, Trammell places 23rd.

26. Gavin Lux - Chicago White Sox

Both Law and Callis have Lux going here while Baseball America has him going 13th overall to the Rays.

27. Eric Lauer - Baltimore Orioles

Law has the middle-projection of the three mocks on Lauer and has him going right here to the Orioles. Alternatively, Callis has him going 29th and Baseball America has him at 26th. The variance isn't that wild so Lauer should go somewhere around here if the mocks are accurate. Lauer also placed exactly 27th by aggregated points.

28. Drew Mendoza - Washington Nationals

Two mocks--Law and Callis--have Mendoza going as one of Nationals' compensation picks (either 28th or 29th). Baseball America left him out of the first round.

29. Bryan Reynolds - Washington Nationals

Reynolds places 28th by aggregated points but no mock has him going precisely at this spot. While Mendoza seems like a lock to go to the Nationals, their 29th overall selection is still in the air.

30. Jordan Sheffield - Texas Rangers

No mock has the Rangers linked with Sheffield. However, Callis has Sheffield going 18th overall to the Yankees and Law has him going 32nd to the Dodgers. Generating any consensus from the three mocks with regards to the Rangers seems to be one of the trickiest endeavors of this exercise. That being said, I might be inclined to agree with Callis' projection of Buddy Reed at this spot.