Time to DFA Ubaldo

[BradyBunch]

I got it. The 1.776 WHIP is mostly bad luck.

Yesterday was bad luck. Nothing was hit real hard. Take Pojuls double. It was a pitch up and end. So good location on a 0-2 count. That's typically a foul ball or strikeout. Then you had another bloop double. That 3 runs given up on balls that typically go the pitchers way. Gausman on Saturday had luck on that kind of stuff.

[Nevermore]

You can save talking down to me re: advanced stats. I used ERA once alongside WAR. It's all a matter of how you interpret the stats and leverage them alongside of others instead of treating one or the other as gospel. Just like FIP is by no means perfect by itself. Especially with Ubaldo considering his walk rate is abysmal.

It's not like Ubaldo has hard luck. He doesn't know where the ball is going. Despite what people want to say...his 2 seamer was out of the zone yesterday and the times it was in the zone it was belt high or higher.

Here's an easy one:

His 4.8 BB/9 is up there with his 2014 season w/ the O's (4.81 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 1.516 WHIP) and his 2012 season w/ the Indians (5.40 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.613 WHIP).

Guess what his numbers this year are? 6.04 ERA, 4.33 FIP (and trending UP), 1.776 WHIP. His hit rate is the highest it's been his entire career (11.2 this year vs. 8.3 career). Actually, his highest ever prior to this year was 9.7 back in (wait for it) 2012.

Are you seeing a trend here?

There's no value here with Ubaldo. He's allowed 4 or more runs in 5 out of 9 starts. He's walked 4 or more batters 5 out of 9 starts.

The problem here is Ubaldo essentially threw away this season when he reverted his mechanics to his 2014 numbers. This is causing his control to be completely out of whack. He either walks guys or tweaks his delivery some so that his pitches are higher/more in the zone...but at that point guys are just hitting them hard.

Here's an ugly trend:

His 4 seamer this year has a 339 BAA. Last year? 205.

His 2 seamer? 311.

His slider? 316.

His splitter is his only pitch that doesn't do much damage (245).

And the problem with the above? Ubaldo is a 4 seamer, 2 seamer, splitter and slider guy. But when 3 out of his 4 pitches are poor, he's going to either get rocked/walk a lot of guys.

I believe that Ubaldo's mechanics/control problems are much more complicated than whether he holds his arms up during his windup. When he pitches from the stretch, the bad numbers are about the same as when he pitches from the windup. Ubaldo needs a LOT more work and practice with the coaches. His delivery is such that even a few inches different in his delivery affect his performance. I wouldn't be surprised that the changes he made after the 2014 season were working for a while. But after the 2015 All-Star break, his performance started to go south again. Some different tweakings helped him improve near the very end of the season.

But batters do view tape and make their own adjustments. Whatever was working during parts of the 2015 season are no longer working now. He needs some time to make further adjustments to the adjustments of batters. So if he doesn't improve in the next couple of starts, then he needs a stint in the bullpen under the close supervisions of the coaches.

[crawjo]

I don't think you can keep saying we can't grow the arms as 4 out of the 5 in the rotation are homegrown basically as Tilman was a low A guy at 19 when we traded for him. We grew him into what he is. Gausman same thing maybe we could have handled it a bit better but now he looks like a solid 1 or 2 for years to come. Wilson and Wright were not big time prospects and the minors grew them into major league pitchers. Britton was homegrown as was Givens.

The major problem with this analysis is that I don't think Gausman has demonstrated what he is yet, and I'm not sure either Wilson or Wright are legitimate major league starting pitchers.

[Nevermore]

Another facet about developing pitchers (or position players) is what to do if a pitcher gets into a prolonged and deep funk. If he doesn't cost that much, or is in a walk year, then a team can DFA him and get rid of him and he'll be some other team's problem -- as what happened with Arrieta. However, when a pitcher has a long and expensive contract, simply dumping him isn't really an option. So the team's coaches have to help him get over his slump. Perhaps putting him in the bullpen for while might be helpful if he also gets close coaching and supervision. But just shuttling him off into the pen and doing nothing other than having him pitch mop-up can be a waste of resources.

[Phantom]

Yesterday was bad luck. Nothing was hit real hard. Take Pojuls double. It was a pitch up and end. So good location on a 0-2 count. That's typically a foul ball or strikeout. Then you had another bloop double. That 3 runs given up on balls that typically go the pitchers way. Gausman on Saturday had luck on that kind of stuff.

We are here to DFA Ubaldo. Your common sense has no place here.

[Frobby]

I didn't see the 5 run inning but after that he actually pitched well. Looked like

they have a bunch of well place bloops and what not. I think Ubaldo will

go on a hot streak with the warmer weather

But seriously who will be the first player to be DFA'd. Seems we are carrying a lot

of dead weight. Here is my order:

1. Matusz (completely worthless)

2. Kim ( I love the hustle/attitude but he can't hit or field at ML level. Alvarez would make us a better team than Kim)

3. Gallardo (can't hide him on the DL forever)

4. Pedro Alvarez (Parades will have a higher WAR with Toronto)

DD DFA'd 20+ million of salary last year

He's going to have to DFA close to that this year

Why not just sign Chen or Latos or Leake??

Well, I guess we can sign Latos now.....

[sportsfan8703]

I don't think we should DFA Ubaldo but I'm seeing a pattern in how Buck talks about certain guys.

After Miguel Gonzalez's last ST start. Buck basically said he was fortunate and allowed a bunch of baserunners. Gonzo was DFA'd the next day.

Buck said that Wandy had been "ok" in extended ST before his opt out. He opted out.

After Ubaldo's last start vs KC, Buck basically said he was lucky. He's still here.

After Gallardo got hit around in A ball, Buck called the defense poor. Now Gallardo will be back on the 18th.

Starting to notice a trend. I still think Ubaldo can be useful this year. He's going to get one more start before Gallardo comes back.

[Bahama O's Fan]

After Worley and Bundy were used today, I guess that takes them out of starting?

[Can_of_corn]

After Worley and Bundy were used today' date=' I guess that takes them out of starting?[/quote']

They might need him tonight!

[Bahama O's Fan]

They might need him tonight!

Nope, let's go Britton and close this out!

[bobmc]

Quoth the Raven, "Awk! ABJ!" :vader:

[LookitsPuck]

Please no. The Angels have been hitting the piss out of the ball lately.

[backwardsk]

Aquino could get the nod.

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[fdepascual]

Aquino over, ubalfo all the way

Enviado desde mi SM-G900V mediante Tapatalk

[LookitsPuck]

Aquino could get the nod.

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Last 6 starts w/ Bowie:

40 IP, 8 ER, 2 HR, 28 H, 14 BB, 34 SO

1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9, 6.3 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 SO/9

Last start he went 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 SO, but 5 walks.

I say start him. Chances are if he stinks, Buck will put in Ubaldo. Might as well start the guy that has a chance of being serviceable as opposed to the known commodity that you know most likely will throw a clunker (Ubaldo).