Thoughts on opening night of the draft

[survivedc]

Let me preface this with me having no real issues with the players selected. The workload they had to carry is a concern but they seem like quality picks.

Tin Foil Hat time.

Dan had them concentrate on college pitchers early so that he can pull one of them if needed into the ML pen in either 2016 or 2017.

Beat me to it, but that's sort of what I'm thinking too. I think Dan and a lot of other GM's have focused on having great bullpens in recent years and college arms really lend themselves to that.

[25 Nuggets]

Here's a player to follow: Atlanta, with the comp pick given to them from Baltimore (76), selected Brett Cumberland, C, California.

[ArtVanDelay]

Here's a player to follow: Atlanta, with the comp pick given to them from Baltimore (76), selected Brett Cumberland, C, California.

The pool money associated with that pick is what will really help Atlanta.

[Malike]

SI called us losers on day 1. Bad value for the 2nd and 3rd picks they say.

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[FlaO'sFan]

O's have picks 91 and 121 coming up here soon, do you think the Terp pitcher Shawaryn would be a good pick?

[Can_of_corn]

O's have picks 91 and 121 coming up here soon' date=' do you think the Terp pitcher Shawaryn would be a good pick?[/quote']

At some point you have top stop targeting college pitchers right?

[FlaO'sFan]

At some point you have top stop targeting college pitchers right?

It's pitchers all the way down.

[weams]

Let me preface this with me having no real issues with the players selected. The workload they had to carry is a concern but they seem like quality picks.

Tin Foil Hat time.

Dan had them concentrate on college pitchers early so that he can pull one of them if needed into the ML pen in either 2016 or 2017.

Why would Dan worry about 2019? Did Andy worry about 2012?

[Can_of_corn]

Why would Dan worry about 2019? Did Andy worry about 2012?

I didn't say otherwise.

I was just speculating.

You think the idea has merit?

[Frobby]

Why would Dan worry about 2019? Did Andy worry about 2012?

Sure he did.

[weams]

I didn't say otherwise.

I was just speculating.

You think the idea has merit?

Sure do. All in.

[Rene88]

It's pitchers all the way down.

We drafted all catchers one year, why not:)

[TheOtherRipken]

Depending on what you mean by a "really good player," I'd say one per draft would be a great return. I've done some research on this in the past and recall that the average return is less than that. About 5-6 players per draft make it to the majors for an average MLB team, with most of them being "cup of coffee" guys or players who have a short career. I'll see if I can dig up an old post or two on the subject.

Thanks for the info, supports my point Os are below average.

[tntoriole]

I love the MLB draft but we have to be realistic. In a typical Orioles draft we are lucky to get 1 really good player. If two become regular major leaguers thats a stronger Orioles draft. Maybe thats league average, I dont know.

My point is we have had three picks so far, if any of those three become good thats a huge win in the draft given past history. Other side of the coin its why they are drafting, what they consider to be, near MLB talent as a "need." Way too many whiffs the past few years (combined with trades, lost picks, lack of international) has left the farm with almost no one ready.

Round Selected / % Probability to Play

in MLB

Round 1 Selections -66% Probability to Play in MLB

Round 2 Selections -49% Probability to Play in MLB

Round 3-5 Selections -32% Probability to Play in MLB

Round 6-10 Selections -20% Probability to Play in MLB

Round 11-20 Selections -11% Probability to Play in MLB

Round 21-50 Selections -7% Probability to Play in MLB

[tntoriole]

Or another way of looking at what is league average in terms of ML contribution of draft picks...

The following are the percentages of ML draft picks by rounds from 1998-2008 drafts that stayed in the majors for 3 years or more

Round 1: 39.1%

Round 1 supp: 15.8%

Round 2: 16.1 %

Rounds3-5: 10.1%

Rounds 6-10: 6.6%

Rounds 11-20: 3.6%

Rounds 21+: 1.6%

Total percentage of ALL draft picks who make the ML for at least 3 years is 5.5%