TT: Innings limit will continue to limit use of Bundy in 2016

[Tony-OH]

It's easy to get excited over the Dylan Bundy we saw yesterday against the Dodgers. Sitting at 96-97 MPH, Bundy struck out a career high seven batters of the 12 batters he faced in two and a third innings.

This was the Dylan Bundy Orioles fans had been waiting for since his selection back 2011 as the number four overall pick, albeit in a multi-inning reliever role vice as the starter everyone envisioned. Don't worry though, Bundy will be a starter again, but despite his great performance yesterday, it most likely won't be this year though because the Orioles have him on an innings limit.

Stan Charles of Press Box, wrote a good piece about Bundy's usage this year and why it's unlikely he'll start this year and I agree completely.

As much as Bundy is ready for the rotation stuff wise, everyone must remember that he pitched 24 minor league innings last year and only 41.1 in 2014. The Orioles probably don't want him throwing any more than 90 innings this year and he's at 38 after yesterday's performance. That leaves around 52 innings for him. That's basically 8-10 starts which would shut him down before September if the Orioles moved him to the rotation now as some fans are clamoring for.

The one thing Bundy has shown this year is the more rest he has the better he pitches. Since June 9th, the Orioles have used Bundy on four or more days of rest in five of his six appearances, with other appearance being on three days rest. Over this span Bundy has allowed no runs on 11 hits and four walks, while striking out 19 over 14.1 innings. Batters are slashing just .212/.293/.269/.562 off this rested version of Bundy. OVerall, in nine appearances this year in which Bundy has at least four days rest, he's allowed just two earned runs on 14 hits and four walks over 17.1 innings (1.04 ERA). In the 13 appearances in which has has 3 or less days of rest he's allowed 11 earned runs on 32 hits and 8 walks with only 12 K's over 20.2 innings (4.79 ERA). Although these are small sample sizes, it's pretty clear that Bundy pitches better when rested like a starter.

At this point, I think you keep using him every 4 or 5 days for 2-3 innings and then see where he's at in September innings wise. I could see Bundy getting a chance to start this September if the innings allow it and there's still a need (I'm fairly certain there will be), but for now I think he stays in the pen in this same role. He could be a good handicap for Tyler Wilson every 5 days in the second half. Let Wilson pitch the first five innings then bring in Bundy for three.

The good news is that when Bundy is rested like a starter, his stuff looks like TOR stuff. His fastball sat 96-97 MPH with good life and his change has been his best secondary offering getting a 33% WHIFF rate since 9 June. The curve can be a hammer at times, but he'll need to command it a bit better for it to become a plus offering as well. Still, with three pitches with plus potential, Bundy has makings of a TOR once he can be stretched out into a starter. With that potential being shown at the big league level now, Bundy has made himself untouchable at the trading deadline despite the Orioles desperate need for at least one more starter. At least I hope so.

[Redskins Rick]

Nice post, Tony.

Do you think he will bring back his slider/cutter at some point?

I know at this point, he is very effective without it, but maybe, once the hitters get more of a book on him, will he need it?

[Tony-OH]

Nice post, Tony.

Do you think he will bring back his slider/cutter at some point?

I know at this point, he is very effective without it, but maybe, once the hitters get more of a book on him, will he need it?

Thanks. He could at some point reintroduce the cutter, but I think he wants to stay healthy first and foremost and introducing any pitch back in is a risk. I could see him do it once he establishes himself as a starter, but would be surprised if it did it before then.

[survivedc]

I guess it's still early to be actively planning for the playoffs, but I really hope he won't be shut down for them. I would like to see him start 2-3 times in September (short starts, 5 innings) and if he shows well let him start in the playoffs.

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[beantownrefugee]

I guess it's still early to be actively planning for the playoffs, but I really hope he won't be shut down for them. I would like to see him start 2-3 times in September (short starts, 5 innings) and if he shows well let him start in the playoffs.

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Perhaps early for active playoff planning, but not too early for September pennant race planning. Mets faced a similar quandary with Harvey last year, and the Nats with Strasberg in 2012. If Bundy really needs to be used as a starter for the key September stretch and the playoffs (and given the state of the SP, it looks that way), the O's are wise to limit his innings now.

[FanSince88]

Perhaps early for active playoff planning, but not too early for September pennant race planning. Mets faced a similar quandary with Harvey last year, and the Nats with Strasberg in 2014. If Bundy really needs to be used as a starter for the key September stretch and the playoffs (and given the state of the SP, it looks that way), the O's are wise to limit his innings now.

Completely agree. As long as we have a good hold of a playoff spot, or are just outside a playoff spot, I see no reason to change the way they're using him. Ideally, he could be our 3rd starter in the playoffs if we manage him correctly.

[survivedc]

Perhaps early for active playoff planning, but not too early for September pennant race planning. Mets faced a similar quandary with Harvey last year, and the Nats with Strasberg in 2014. If Bundy really needs to be used as a starter for the key September stretch and the playoffs (and given the state of the SP, it looks that way), the O's are wise to limit his innings now.

The Strasburg debacle was in 2012, but I agree, would be a huge mistake to go into the playoffs without on of your top pitchers.

[Frobby]

I agree with the OP. I won't be surprised if Bundy gets 2-3 spot starts sometime in the second half, but I don't think there's any way they are going to plug him into a regular rotation spot.

He's throwing about 18 pitches per inning, which is very high for a starting pitcher, though Jimenez and Gallardo are higher. He'll need to learn to bring that down in the future if he wants to get deep into games.

[OrangeOctober88]

Good post. Very interesting to consider.

[El Gordo]

Save Bundy's starts for Oct.

[pfhokie]

I think that the tendency is to satisfy the immediate need and rush Bundy along. However, I still think he's learning which is high-

lighted by his WHIP. I know it's just one stat but he allows way too many base runners through walks and hits. He's been able to avoid

trouble up to this point but striking guys out but it's going to catch up when he faces a playoff team. If he had more options, he would

be in the minors but Buck has a program to nurse him along by giving him extra rest.

[ShaneDawg85]

I think that the tendency is to satisfy the immediate need and rush Bundy along. However, I still think he's learning which is high-

lighted by his WHIP. I know it's just one stat but he allows way too many base runners through walks and hits. He's been able to avoid

trouble up to this point but striking guys out but it's going to catch up when he faces a playoff team. If he had more options, he would

be in the minors but Buck has a program to nurse him along by giving him extra rest.

If he had any options he'd be in the minors, realistically.

[srock]

I'm wondering if the innings limit goes out the window in the playoffs.

So long as he stays healthy, I could see him being used as needed in October. Being a pro means showing up when opportunity knocks. Who knows if they see the playoffs again so go for it when you can.

[FlipTheBird]

I'm wondering if the innings limit goes out the window in the playoffs.

So long as he stays healthy, I could see him being used as needed in October. Being a pro means showing up when opportunity knocks. Who knows if they see the playoffs again so go for it when you can.

I don't know that he'd be all that required in the playoffs, if the team stays healthy. They'd presumably run a shorter rotation, giving them an extra arm. And (like I said, assuming health) they'd have Givens, Brach, O'Day and Britton all functioning.

[FlipTheBird]

I agree with the OP. I won't be surprised if Bundy gets 2-3 spot starts sometime in the second half, but I don't think there's any way they are going to plug him into a regular rotation spot.

He's throwing about 18 pitches per inning, which is very high for a starting pitcher, though Jimenez and Gallardo are higher. He'll need to learn to bring that down in the future if he wants to get deep into games.

Exactly. He struck a lot of guys out yesterday, yeah, but he put a bunch on base, too. 56 pitches through 2.1 IP.

Bundy's under team control for a significant period, now, and is only 23. There's absolutely no reason for the team to run him out there as a starter until he's completely ready to do, workload wise. His stuff has really started to come around these last two weeks or so, but he's still a very much unfinished product that is in no way beating on the door of the starting rotation, even as bad as it is.