Luis Terrero

[NewMarketSean]

Yeah, my bad. I always liked Willie, toothpick and all. I meant to type Lenny Green.

I may not know very much, but I know Terrero sucks as a major leaguer and his minor league stats are meaningless. He's a Triple A player period. That is his level of highest sucess.

By saying that, you essentially say that all MiL stats are meaningless. Which proves that you don't know as much as you like to let on.

[rooter]

By saying that, you essentially say that all MiL stats are meaningless. Which proves that you don't know as much as you like to let on.

Why do you bother to argue with the guy? There's no consistency or logic to anything he says.

[Jenius]

I may not know very much, but I know Terrero sucks as a major leaguer and his minor league stats are meaningless. He's a Triple A player period. That is his level of highest sucess.

OK, if as you say minor league stats are "meaningless" (which in itself is an inaccurate statement but perhaps a conversation for another time), let's look at the Major League stats:

Last year Payton posted a .668 OPS in 131 games, mostly as the starting LF. He has spent most of his career as a LF/CF, with only about 600 innings in RF (or the equivalent of ~65 full games). He is widely regarded as an average defensive OF with the speed to outrun the ball but a mediocre arm. At 35, he is on the decline and is more likely to remain at last year's levels than he is to return to his previous level of production (~.750 OPS).

Last year Terrero posted a respectable .724 OPS (more than 50 points better than Payton) in 61 games for the White Sox. Since he is just about to turn 28, he is far less likely to see his numbers decline in the near future. In addition, he is a capable outfielder at all three positions with a strong arm. He's not particularly disciplined at the plate or on the bases, but has shown a little more propensity to take a walk than Payton.

So I'm all in favor of unloading Payton for a fringe prospect or two if the O's can pull that off, and inserting Terrero. It is extremely unfair and unwise to evaluate Luis based off 40 at bats when he was terribly misused by the Os in '06. Give him 200 or more ABs as the 4th OF and then evaluate him.

[Old#5fan]

OK, if as you say minor league stats are "meaningless" (which in itself is an inaccurate statement but perhaps a conversation for another time), let's look at the Major League stats:

Last year Payton posted a .668 OPS in 131 games, mostly as the starting LF. He has spent most of his career as a LF/CF, with only about 600 innings in RF (or the equivalent of ~65 full games). He is widely regarded as an average defensive OF with the speed to outrun the ball but a mediocre arm. At 35, he is on the decline and is more likely to remain at last year's levels than he is to return to his previous level of production (~.750 OPS).

Last year Terrero posted a respectable .724 OPS (more than 50 points better than Payton) in 61 games for the White Sox. Since he is just about to turn 28, he is far less likely to see his numbers decline in the near future. In addition, he is a capable outfielder at all three positions with a strong arm. He's not particularly disciplined at the plate or on the bases, but has shown a little more propensity to take a walk than Payton.

So I'm all in favor of unloading Payton for a fringe prospect or two if the O's can pull that off, and inserting Terrero. It is extremely unfair and unwise to evaluate Luis based off 40 at bats when he was terribly misused by the Os in '06. Give him 200 or more ABs as the 4th OF and then evaluate him.

You did such a great job with this post even I cannot argue with your reasoning. The only thing that I truly believes precludes this from actually happening is I highly doubt there will be any seekers of Payton. Think about it, if what you say is true there would seemingly be more interest in trading for Terrero than Payton! :scratchchinhmm:

[wildcard]

O's management and owner have already swallowed almost $12M for Gibbons. I don't see them chewing any more unless they have to.

My guess is that the O's keep Payton until his contract is paid down to the level that someone wants to take the rest of the salary. Traded for what matters little.

If I am right about that, then Terrero comes to the majors when 1) there is an injury to an OF or the DH or 2) when Payton is traded or 3) in Sept.

[Anonymous]

O's management and owner have already swallowed almost $12M for Gibbons. I don't see them chewing any more unless they have to.

My guess is that the O's keep Payton until his contract is paid down to the level that someone wants to take the rest of the salary. Traded for what matters little.

If I am right about that, then Terrero comes to the majors when 1) there is an injury to an OF or the DH or 2) when Payton is traded or 3) in Sept.

Except for two minor quibbles, I agree with wildcard on this.

Quibble 1: If a team in need offers to take on $3.0M when there's $3.9M left on the contract, that's a better deal for the O's than having someone take on the full thing when it gets down to $2.0M. Basically, we want to maximize the nominal dollars recovered, not the percentage.

Quibble 2: I don't think this has anything to do with the Gibbons situation. The Gibbons buy-out made sense because we had no choice; nobody was going to trade for him. Maximizing the dollars we try to recover on the Payton contract makes sense in its own right; he's a much more tradeable commodity.

[wildcard]

Except for two minor quibbles, I agree with wildcard on this.

Quibble 1: If a team in need offers to take on $3.0M when there's $3.9M left on the contract, that's a better deal for the O's than having someone take on the full thing when it gets down to $2.0M. Basically, we want to maximize the nominal dollars recovered, not the percentage.

Quibble 2: I don't think this has anything to do with the Gibbons situation. The Gibbons buy-out made sense because we had no choice; nobody was going to trade for him. Maximizing the dollars we try to recover on the Payton contract makes sense in its own right; he's a much more tradeable commodity.

Your thought process on maximizing the recover dollars in a good one IMO, but there are certain things that O's management can't get away from. Giving Gibbons almost 12M will have an effect on MacPhail ability to go to Peter and tell him he wants to write down more money. That is just how businesses work.

IMO it was hard for MacPhail to go to Peter and ask for such a large write down. He is not likely to do it again soon.

[Anonymous]

Your thought process on maximizing the recover dollars in a good one IMO, but there are certain things that O's management can't get away from. Giving Gibbons almost 12M will have an effect on MacPhail ability to go to Peter and tell him he wants to write down more money. That is just how businesses work.

IMO it was hard for MacPhail to go to Peter and ask for such a large write down. He is not likely to do it again soon.

I actually agree with you on this entire statement, wc. But I just don't think there's any conflict here between ownership and GM interests. It makes sense from both perspectives to claw back as many dollars as possible, and to strike a deal at whatever time will facilitate reaching that objective.

The Gibbons situation was a little different, not only because Gibbons was untradeable, but also because of the time-sensitivity that required this to be cleared up by OD in order to get Scott Moore on the team (kind of ironic, in retrospect -- but that was why a decision had to be made promptly rather than a week or two later). So in that case, there may have been more urgency from the perspective of the GM than that of the owner. But with Payton, I think the interests of the two parties are totally aligned.

But I do grant the general concept that if their interests wind up in misalignment in some future situation, Andy can go to the well only so many times; he'll have to pick his spots selectively.