At the three quarter mark the O's are on a 89.7 win pace and in trouble

[wildcard]

One and a half games behind Blue Jays for the division title and 2 games ahead of the Mariners for the last Wild Card spot. The pitching is spent. Changes are about to happen.

With Tillman's shoulder questionable for tonight's game and Miley's effectiveness a huge question mark the O's starting rotation is in deep, deep trouble. Worley is a half a step out of rotation. This is the time of the year when Duquette added Saunders in 2012. I am sure Dan is looking.

The bullpen is overused after last night and the O's have to be thinking of going to a 3 man bench and a 13 man pitching staff. With Wilson optioned, Despaigne is probably on his way to Baltimore. But that may not be enough. Oliver or Aquino could also be recalled. Either one may not stay long but they may need them tonight. Reimold is the logical player to DFA. Dan may not be able to swallow Jimenez or Miley's contract but can leave Reimold go and the 313K left of his contract.

The 12 days left in August are the O's biggest problem right now. The team needs reenforcements that 1st of September will allow. But for now it is how do the O's hold on until that time. Lee can be recalled and place of the 60 day DL. He doesn't have to pitch any more this year. McFarland can also be placed of the 60 day DL. That would make him available after August 28th. He can be recalled when the roster expands. That is two ways to open 40 man roster stop although McFarland's is a temporary move.

Gunkel (who just pitched and is not available until the 23rd), Oliver and Richard Rodriguez are candidates to help during the last 12 days for August. Oliver is available now and Rodriguez is available Sunday. Beato as a one inning pitcher does not help much getting through August IMO. The O's need length.

DFAing Reimold open one spot of the 25 man roster and Wilson's spot given them two. DFAing Reimold gives the one spot on the 40 man roster and 60 Day DLing Lee give them two. 60 Day DLing McFarland give them a third spot temporarily.

Come Sept 1 the roster expansion can add McFarland, Drake, Wright, Tolliver (when healthy), Aquino and Bridewell. Wilson can return though this effectiveness is in question at this point. O'Day can't be counted on with his shoulder still hurting. Duensing may be available at some point but he requires a 40 man roster spot which is problematic. Pena will be added to the catching staff. and Alvarez as an outfielder. Rickard sounds like he probably will not be available until the 2nd week of September.

I can see Davis helping in the outfield with Pearce at 1B at times.

The O's still have a very good chance at making the playoffs and maybe even winning the division if players step up. The O's are not the only team facing these kind of problems. But they are the only team with a 12th ranked pitching staff in the AL with a 4.94 ERA.

Cross your fingers and hope that Dan and Buck find some players that are ready to help the rest of the way.

[Mayor McCheese]

I think another issue is our schedule - We need to win these series....

4 vs WAS

9 vs NYY

6 vs TOR

6 vs BOS

So far we have been about .500 vs NYY / BOS / TOR

[ReclaimTheCrown]

I've seen a few analyses of the schedules of our AL East rivals, but I've not seen one (perhaps I missed it) of our main wildcard competition, namely Seattle and Detroit. To be honest, it doesn't look that pretty:

Seattle: 65-56, 2 GB of us for second wildcard

- 22 home remaining, 19 road remaining

- 19 against clubs with winning records, and that includes 3 against NYY and 6 against HOU, who are both barely above .500

- Seattle is 34-25 at home

- They also have no more east coast trips, so the travel schedule isn't too horrible. Furthest they go is Chicago, Minnesota, and Houston (still a haul, but not as bad as it could be for them)

Detroit: 64-58, 3.5 GB of us for second wildcard

- 22 home, 18 road remaining

- 18 games against clubs with winning records, including 6 against KC, who is barely above .500; we also play 3 in Detroit second weekend of September

- Detroit also happens to be 34-25 at home

Clearly, Detroit is lurking and dangerous, but the real concern to me is Seattle. They have been hitting their stride and have a lot of games left against some soft AL West opponents, including 6 against the Angels, 7 against Oakland. They also have 3 in Minnesota for good measure.

We're going to have to beat out one of Boston (or, heck, Toronto) and Seattle to maintain a wildcard. We'll have to really turn it on, because I struggle to see Seattle stumbling down the stretch against that kind of schedule. Certainly another case to be made for doing away with the unbalanced schedule with two wildcards available, but that embarrassing four game sweep in late June/early July in Seattle is looking bigger and bigger...

[ReclaimTheCrown]

Sweeps happen. My concern is our pitching. If we had better pitching or somehow get better pitching I would be less concerned with Detroit or Seattle.

Ok, well, sure. The point being that if we had managed one measly game in Seattle, we would have a much more comfortable four game edge. Obviously well under the bridge at this point, just sayin'

And until last night, the concern was overwhelmingly the hitting. Generally, the point that I thought would be pretty clear is that we'll have to play (hit, pitch, field) much better because we aren't going to get any help from our competitor's weak schedules. At least those outside the AL East.

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[pastorfan]

Sweeps happen. My concern is our pitching. If we had better pitching or somehow get better pitching I would be less concerned with Detroit or Seattle.

As history suggests, poor starting pitching will eventually catch up with you over such a long season. We just have to hope that Boston or Toronto collapses.