If we miss the playoffs this year, trade Manny and sign Schoop

[Satyr3206]

I agree with the opening thread and really wish MacPhail still worked here.

[El Gordo]

I agree with the opening thread and really wish MacPhail still worked here.

Yep. Great trades, never finish over .500. Miss those good ol' days of perculation.

[TheWall]

Yep. Great trades, never finish over .500. Miss those good ol' days of peculation.

The hate on DD is way too extreme. AM deserves credit for some of his moves, but Dan didn't fluke into all of this success.

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[WEAVERMAN]

* If we can't make the playoffs this year with Manny Machado and one of the best lineups in all of baseball surrounding him, do we seriously have a realistic chance of doing it next year or in 2018? With an aging Jones/Wieters/Hardy, probably-not-returning-and-also-aging Trumbo, still-mostly-unproven Bundy, inconsistent Gausman, mediocre-to-poor backend rotation, and FO that refuses to pay for quality SP FA?

* If we aren't going to get to the playoffs with Manny before 2018, what's the point of keeping him here until then?

* If there's little point in keeping Manny around until 2018, why not trade him now to restock our barren prospect pool.

* If we really want to massively overpay for Manny in 2018 when he's a free agent, if the surrounding talent is looking brighter, then we can still do that.

* We can probably sign Schoop right now for at most half and probably a third of what it would cost to sign Manny in 2018; and I predict he will be worth no less than 75% of Manny's value over the course of his career.

* So if we miss the playoffs in 2016, let's make Schoop the core of our franchise, and leverage Manny while he still has multiple years left to fill in our gaping current or future talent gaps at starting pitcher, SS/3B (one of which we'd need anyway after Hardy leaves even if we kept Manny), and outfield.

Keep Manny, end of story.

[webbrick2010]

You only trade Machado if you are both prepared to rebuild and have targeted the right farm system to raid. A return for Machado would have to include multiple blue chip prospects, something that not every system has. But I tend to fall on the side of believing that it is better to build around Machado with an extension than it is to trade him. I doubt the Orioles are deceiving themselves about what it will cost to keep Machado...whether they can meet the price is another question.

The Yankees just picked up a hand full of top 100 picks by trading away Beltran, Miller, and Chapman. We should get them all and more by trading Manny this winter to the Yankees. Manny is great but his next contract will be a mistake for whomever signs him

[Triple Crown]

The Yankees just picked up a hand full of top 100 picks by trading away Beltran, Miller, and Chapman. We should get them all and more by trading Manny this winter to the Yankees. Manny is great but his next contract will be a mistake for whomever signs him

There is no possible way the Orioles trade Manny to the Yankees, it doesn't matter who is offered, not happening

[Frobby]

Part of the problem is that so many of our fans believe that "we have one of the best lineups in all of baseball" surrounding Machado. We don't. There is more to having a good offense than hitting home runs, and after Machado that's pretty much all we get out of our offense, with the exception of Kim who can get on base.

I agree that our fans tend to overrate our offense. We are about 20 runs above league average, playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. It's a good offense, but it is not elite.

[Frobby]

The Yankees just picked up a hand full of top 100 picks by trading away Beltran, Miller, and Chapman. We should get them all and more by trading Manny this winter to the Yankees. Manny is great but his next contract will be a mistake for whomever signs him

I don't think his next contract will necessarily be a mistake for whoever signs him, but there is a legitimate question as to whether we can afford to pay him, and whether we would be better off getting a haul of young talent rather than paying Manny something close to market price.

We have been incredibly fortunate. Per fangraphs, Manny has been worth about $173 mm the last five years, at a cost of about $7 mm. That has allowed us a ton of flexibility to spend money on other needs. Once Manny is being paid at something close to market rate, it may be very difficult to pay for the pieces we need around him.

At the same time, if we are paying Manny $30-35 mm/yr, and he continues to be worth $45-55 mm/yr (which is what fangraphs says he has been worth when healthy), then he is still a bargain, even though expensive.

At 10/$300 mm, I'd sign him. At 10/$400 mm, I wouldn't. Somewhere in between is where the rubber meets the road.

[FlipTheBird]

Face it. Small market.

Meh, they've firmly been in or around the middle in payroll for a little while now. Like isetrex said, they're a team in the middle.

[FlipTheBird]

Yep. Great trades, never finish over .500. Miss those good ol' days of peculation.

The DD hate and MacPhail glorification makes me wonder how many people on this board were blackout drunk for the entirety of Andy's time here.

[Frobby]

The DD hate and MacPhail glorification makes me wonder how many people on this board were blackout drunk for the entirety of Andy's time here.

It's a mixed bag for both of them. The core of the team was acquired on Andy's watch -- 6 of the 8 position players, plus their most reliable starting pitcher and their dominant closer. They've been lasting contributors who the fans identify with as the core of the team. Duquette's contributions have been more episodic, acquiring guys who have a good year or two and then are replaced.

You could argue that Andy knew how to acquire core pieces but didn't know how to add the complementary pieces needed to win. Or, you could argue he simply wasn't here long enough to see his labors bear fruit -- Manny and Schoop were still in the minors, Tillman hadn't figure things out yet, Davis had just arrived and Jones hadn't fully developed yet. Perhaps if he'd stuck around the team would have had as much success or more than they'd had under Duquette, or perhaps not.

[atomic]

Buck and Dan didn't sign up for a rebuild. Most likely PA didn't either.

Peter Angelos will be 87 next year. I doubt he wants to do a rebuild. He wants to win now. I see him going for some big signings next year if we don't make the playoffs next year. Trading Manny won't happen.

[atomic]

The DD hate and MacPhail glorification makes me wonder how many people on this board were blackout drunk for the entirety of Andy's time here.

Yeah Andy never won more than 69 games. When we won the division we had 4 out of 5 starters acquired during DD's watch.

Andy didn't draft that well either. Look at the 4 drafts he was here. We had 4 top 5 picks he batted .500 at best. Hobgood and Matusz were wasted picks and Bundy is just starting to produce now.

Other than that he drafted Zach Davies and whole bunch of nothing.

Zach Britton and Arrieta were drafted before Macphail.

[atomic]

It's a mixed bag for both of them. The core of the team was acquired on Andy's watch -- 6 of the 8 position players, plus their most reliable starting pitcher and their dominant closer. They've been lasting contributors who the fans identify with as the core of the team. Duquette's contributions have been more episodic, acquiring guys who have a good year or two and then are replaced.

You could argue that Andy knew how to acquire core pieces but didn't know how to add the complementary pieces needed to win. Or, you could argue he simply wasn't here long enough to see his labors bear fruit -- Manny and Schoop were still in the minors, Tillman hadn't figure things out yet, Davis had just arrived and Jones hadn't fully developed yet. Perhaps if he'd stuck around the team would have had as much success or more than they'd had under Duquette, or perhaps not.

Britton was drafted before Andy got here. Wieters was before Andy as well. So Schoop, Davis, Machado, Jones, Hardy is 5. ANd I would give Buck credit for Davis.

[webbrick2010]

I don't think his next contract will necessarily be a mistake for whoever signs him, but there is a legitimate question as to whether we can afford to pay him, and whether we would be better off getting a haul of young talent rather than paying Manny something close to market price.

We have been incredibly fortunate. Per fangraphs, Manny has been worth about $173 mm the last five years, at a cost of about $7 mm. That has allowed us a ton of flexibility to spend money on other needs. Once Manny is being paid at something close to market rate, it may be very difficult to pay for the pieces we need around him.

At the same time, if we are paying Manny $30-35 mm/yr, and he continues to be worth $45-55 mm/yr (which is what fangraphs says he has been worth when healthy), then he is still a bargain, even though expensive.

At 10/$300 mm, I'd sign him. At 10/$400 mm, I wouldn't. Somewhere in between is where the rubber meets the road.

I'd like to see a list of baseball contracts in excess of 8 years that have turned out well for the respective team

a 10/350 contract to Manny, and then say a serious knee injury would cripple the O's

Just not a fan of huge contracts

Trade him for 5 top 100 prospects, and I think the odds are the combined WAR would be close and the dollars expended would be greatly less

Keep young, trade stars/superstars a year or two before free agency, augment with veterans beyond their prime (like a

Beltran) or guys with huge skill but huge holes in their games (Pedro Alvarez, Mark Trumbo, etc)

My plan would have been to trade Jones, O'day and Davis last year and build around Schoop, Manny and Britton but we spent huge dollars on guys that we shouldn't have (O'day, Davis)

and now are less capable of paying for Manny, Britton, Schoop, and Tillman