Would you sign Tillman for 5/$75 mm this offseason?

[Frobby]

Chris Tillman is making $6.225 mm this season, and I figure he'll make about $10 mm next season in arbitration. After that, he's a free agent. I figure he'd be worth $16-20 mm/yr on the free agent market, depending on how his 2017 season goes.

So, would you sign him for 5/$75 mm this offseason? (Poll coming.)

[OriolesMagic83]

I hope the O's do sign him. There's no way the O's will ever sign a true ace when the price is $30 mill/yr and rising. Tillman is a good #2 starter and pitches a lot of innings. He would have a good shot at $100 mill contract as free agent. I would prefer to sign him to 4 yr deals w/ 2 options, but would sign him to 5 years if that was only option.

Not signing Tillman means the O's will be signing another Ubaldo/Gallardo next offseason. They'll be paying $12-15 mill/yr for a very inconsistent starter with tons of questions marks or injury concerns.

[canonfaz]

We have too much money tied up in the rotation with average starters IMO. I voted no, but if we could somehow trade Miley or Gallardo, then I would say Yes.

[Redskins Rick]

I hope the O's do sign him. There's no way the O's will ever sign a true ace when the price is $30 mill/yr and rising. Tillman is a good #2 starter and pitches a lot of innings. He would have a good shot at $100 mill contract as free agent. I would prefer to sign him to 4 yr deals w/ 2 options, but would sign him to 5 years if that was only option.

Not signing Tillman means the O's will be signing another Ubaldo/Gallardo next offseason. They'll be paying $12-15 mill/yr for a very inconsistent starter with tons of questions marks or injury concerns.

He has thrown 31+ starts his previous three seasons, not to mention 26 starts this season, thats not a lot of injury down time.

He has a 4.0 WAR and 2.4 WAR under his belt, and a 4.0 WAR so far this season.

Yes, he had a down year, last year, but still managed to pull a .8 WAR.

There is not a lot of quality FA SP available in the market, and I say, you do everything you can to keep him.

Having him as one of the top three arms along side Bundy and Gausman is very appealing.

[btownoriole]

Yes, although I realize it's a pretty big risk. With Wieters and Trumbo off the books next year and Ubaldo/Miley/Gallardo off in 2018, there should be room. Angelos seems willing to invest to keep the core together, although Manny will be the biggest test of that.

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[esmd]

All day long and twice on Sunday, if he'll accept it.

[waroriole]

Tough call. I'd prefer 4 years, and we have so much dead weight at SP, but at the end of the year he's usually a consistent SP.

I know the dead weight SP is off the books after next year, so we might as well give ourselves a chance to extend it. Yes, I'd do the deal.

[TINSTAAPP]

The Orioles blew it by not signing Tillman to an extension after the 2014 season. If you look at his numbers, Tillman's a very similar pitcher to Derek Holland. The Rangers signed Holland to a 4-year $28.5 million extension with two team options after the 2012 season. The service times for Holland after the 2012 season and Tillman after the 2014 season were virtually identical and statistically they are both very similar. If the Orioles had followed the Rangers example, they would have Tillman under team control until 2020. Now Tillman's probably going to walk after 2017 or at least force the Orioles to sign him for an exorbitant amount of money.

[VeveJones007]

All day long and twice on Sunday, if he'll accept it.

Therein lies the rub. Assuming his shoulder is fine, this would be a very team friendly deal. I'd wait for free agency if it were me and I had >$15MM already in the bank.

[srock]

5/$75 would be a steal given the recent market for starting pitching. Maybe the Orioles get him around that price for buying out the arb year and home team discount.

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[VeveJones007]

The Orioles blew it by not signing Tillman to an extension after the 2014 season. If you look at his numbers, Tillman's a very similar pitcher to Derek Holland. The Rangers signed Holland to a 4-year $28.5 million extension with two team options after the 2012 season. The service times for Holland after the 2012 season and Tillman after the 2014 season were virtually identical and statistically they are both very similar. If the Orioles had followed the Rangers example, they would have Tillman under team control until 2020. Now Tillman's probably going to walk after 2017 or at least force the Orioles to sign him for an exorbitant amount of money.

Should have already locked up Gausman as well. Look at what the White Six have done with Sale, Quintana, and Eaton. I realize it's the only way an org would want to copy the White Sox, but they have been great at locking up young studs early at team-friendly rates.

[atomic]

Seems like a good deal to me. You would just have to get Mr. Angelos to sign off on it.

There is a big risk factor to signing a starting pitcher with that many innings already under his belt to that long of a contract. But the salary is less than market rate.

[Beef Supreme]

Seems like a good deal to me. You would just have to get Mr. Angelos to sign off on it.

There is a big risk factor to signing a starting pitcher with that many innings already under his belt to that long of a contract. But the salary is less than market rate.

Sign Machado.

Sign Schoop.

Count me as not interested in locking up Tillman. He may be the Orioles' #1 (you won't hear me calling him an "ace"), but I would prefer to see the Orioles spend their money on up-the-middle position players than a middle-of the rotation starter with some miles on him who has a had time making batters miss. I was at OPACY for Tillman's 49-pitch first inning versus the Pirates...

I am surprised that, considering all the squawking on this board about the economic recklessness of the signings of Ubaldo and Gallardo, that this post isn't lit up with members saying that signing Tillman would be comparably risky. Of course when the Orioles signed those two, neither Gausman nor Bundy looked like certainties to remain in the Orioles' rotation. Now that those two have shown improvement, the Orioles are less desperate to pay big bucks for past success.

Hell, even sign Britton. 4/$40 -- at least they'll be more likely to get their money's worth.

[jtschrei]

100% agree with this post.

Sign Machado.

Sign Schoop.

Count me as not interested in locking up Tillman. He may be the Orioles' #1 (you won't hear me calling him an "ace"), but I would prefer to see the Orioles spend their money on up-the-middle position players than a middle-of the rotation starter with some miles on him who has a had time making batters miss. I was at OPACY for Tillman's 49-pitch first inning versus the Pirates...

I am surprised that, considering all the squawking on this board about the economic recklessness of the signings of Ubaldo and Gallardo, that this post isn't lit up with members saying that signing Tillman would be comparably risky. Of course when the Orioles signed those two, neither Gausman nor Bundy looked like certainties to remain in the Orioles' rotation. Now that those two have shown improvement, the Orioles are less desperate to pay big bucks for past success.

Hell, even sign Britton. 4/$40 -- at least they'll be more likely to get their money's worth.

[Frobby]

I am surprised that, considering all the squawking on this board about the economic recklessness of the signings of Ubaldo and Gallardo, that this post isn't lit up with members saying that signing Tillman would be comparably risky.

Tillman's a little younger, and has demonstrated he can have success in the AL East and at OPACY. You're not having to guess how he will adjust to a new environment. In Gallardo's case, there had been a noticeable dip in his velocity and IP/start that were part of the concern.

But I don't mean to suggest that there would be no risk with Tillman. His 2015 performance and his current bursitis reinforce that risk.