'If' We Trade Bedard

[davearm]

You continue to not realize what Bedard will fetch.

Perez or Sosa? LOL LOL LOL

It's no surprise that you focus on the least important component of the trade.

If the Mets are getting Bedard, then it makes sense that they'd give back a starting pitcher off of their 25-man roster. It helps both teams' roster management, and it also has a salary-balancing effect.

Sosa or Perez have some value, but Milledge is the centerpiece, and the prospect is the next-most important component. If you don't want Sosa or Perez, then flip them at the deadline for another prospect or two. There's always demand for cheap, effective starters like these guys have been this year.

[Mad Mark]

I have to say that if we have confidence that we could get through the rest of this season with a rotation of:

Burress

Cabrera

Guthrie

Olson

Warm 5th Body

with the expectation that Loewen and Penn will be ready to step in next season, you deal Trachsel in a heartbeat, and Bedard if the right deal comes along...for BATS. I'll take my chances with the Orioles arms (for the moment), but this team desperately needs BATS, Jobu, cigars and rum!

[Greg Pappas]

It's no surprise that you focus on the least important component of the trade.

If the Mets are getting Bedard, then it makes sense that they'd give back a starting pitcher off of their 25-man roster. It helps both teams' roster management, and it also has a salary-balancing effect.

Sosa or Perez have some value, but Milledge is the centerpiece, and the prospect is the next-most important component.

Just my personal take, but 'LOL, LOL, LOL' is unnecessary SG.

Dave, I understand your views on Bedard's value, but disagree slightly. While your point of getting a SP makes sense, I'd expect the O's to want Pelfrey as compared to Sosa or Perez. Both are having fine years, and have talent as well, but as much as I'm unsure of Pelfrey, his higher upside is what we'd look to acquire. At least that's how I see it.

Always good to hear from you Dave.

[vab]

I have to say that if we have confidence that we could get through the rest of this season with a rotation of:

Burress

Cabrera

Guthrie

Olson

Warm 5th Body

with the expectation that Loewen and Penn will be ready to step in next season, you deal Trachsel in a heartbeat, and Bedard if the right deal comes along...for BATS. I'll take my chances with the Orioles arms (for the moment), but this team desperately needs BATS, Jobu, cigars and rum!

Counting on Olson, Loewen and Penn would be very risky. I don't care how good his numbers are at triple A, Olson is not a given. Loewen has already had a torn labrum and now elbow surgery so he's not a sure thing and Penn has had all kinds of problems. I'm not saying Bedard (or anybody) is untouchable but if they do trade him, they better have something a little more solid to fall back on pitching-wise.

[tywright]

In order.

-Why?

-Why not this year?

-Possibly.

-Also possibly, but I still believe in his ability to play in the majors at a high level.

-I had missed that, thanks for the update.

There is a thread I posted yesterday about trading DCab. I'd much rather have Bedard in the rotation when we are contending (if that ever happens)than DCab. Also I think trading Bedard now means that you pretty much given up hope you can sign him long term, plus he could increase his trade value next year.

As for the Mets, they always like to make a splash ...Omar Minaya is known for that (Colon for Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips trade). Milledge doesn't have good plate discipline, hasn't had a consistent BA above .300, and hasn't displayed much power, plus his defense can be shaky at times and he's a horrible baserunner despite the speed. When you can't be a regular for the Mets then there's a problem. He's very overrated

[mweb]

You continue to not realize what Bedard will fetch.

Perez or Sosa? LOL LOL LOL

Look at Perez' stats, age, and stuff, I don't think he'd be a bad 2nd piece of a 3 player return. I don't see why the Mets would trade him though. Would make more sense for both parties for it to be a prospect instead of Oliver.

[Mad Mark]

Counting on Olson, Loewen and Penn would be very risky. I don't care how good his numbers are at triple A, Olson is not a given. Loewen has already had a torn labrum and now elbow surgery so he's not a sure thing and Penn has had all kinds of problems. I'm not saying Bedard (or anybody) is untouchable but if they do trade him, they better have something a little more solid to fall back on pitching-wise.

You're right: this is a high-risk/(hopefully) high reward strategy. It's just that the offense has been so bad lately!

[mweb]

I'm am the point where I'd have no problem trading Bedard as long as we're going to seriously rebuild, which means Tejada, Hernandez, Roberts, and any other vet with decent value should be traded as well. Lets just stockpile as many talented 25 and under players and look towards the future.

I think it would be a mistake to trade Bedard without trading at least most of our other valuable vets.

[nadecir]

There is a thread I posted yesterday about trading DCab. I'd much rather have Bedard in the rotation when we are contending (if that ever happens)than DCab. Also I think trading Bedard now means that you pretty much given up hope you can sign him long term, plus he could increase his trade value next year.

Daniel Cabrera won't get you nearly the return in a trade versus Erik Bedard. Daniel Cabrera has yet to be a league average pitcher in his four years pitching in the majors. Erik Bedard is an elite pitcher now.

The likelihood of Erik Bedard signing long term with the Orioles is pretty low. He'll go free agent after 2009 to maximize his payout. And he will likely sign with a high revenue contender. Bedard doesn't seem enamored with the Orioles in any way.

If you don't trade Bedard now, you run the risk of an injury that really dampens Bedard's trade value. His trade value is very high now. It's not going to get much higher. It's more likely that an injury or a decline in performance lowers Bedard's trade value than for his trade value to go up very much.

[srock]

You trade Bedard when you get a great offer. If it happens tonight, you do it.

I agree, best time to trade Bedard is this season. His value maximizes at this upcoming trade deadline because he has a full year before free agency ahead of him.

Waiting until the off season increases the supply of pitching due to the free agents available where as Bedard is likely to one be of a handful of starters (surely the cream of the crop) available this July.

Waiting until next season at the trade deadline increases the risk he hurts himself and reduces what other teams will give up for him because he is essentially a 3 month rental. I couldn't count the number of trade proposals on this board attacked because a player it too close to free agency. We don't want to be on the selling end of that deal.

Not trading Bedard at all will cost the team a good salary next season when an arbitrator gives him a nice raise plus there is a high likelihood Bedard won't sign an extension to stay on with a perpetually losing franchise.

In short, if the Orioles want to maximize return on Erik Bedard, he must be traded in July.

[geschinger]

There is a thread I posted yesterday about trading DCab. I'd much rather have Bedard in the rotation when we are contending (if that ever happens)than DCab. Also I think trading Bedard now means that you pretty much given up hope you can sign him long term, plus he could increase his trade value next year.

It might take trading Bedard to get the point where we have a chance to contend. Without the infusion of talent that we should be able to get for Bedard there may not be any possibilit of contention in which case he continues to be what he is... A damn good pitcher on an poor team.

[davearm]

Just my personal take, but 'LOL, LOL, LOL' is unnecessary SG.

Dave, I understand your views on Bedard's value, but disagree slightly. While your point of getting a SP makes sense, I'd expect the O's to want Pelfrey as compared to Sosa or Perez. Both are having fine years, and have talent as well, but as much as I'm unsure of Pelfrey, his higher upside is what we'd look to acquire. At least that's how I see it.

Always good to hear from you Dave.

You might get Minaya to give you Pelfrey and Milledge for Bedard.

He'd have to be pretty motivated to add another of his top 10 prospects on top of that though.

So it gets back to the question of whether you want the talent you acquire for a guy like Bedard spread across 1, 2 or 3 (or more) bodies.

FWIW, Ollie Perez is not exactly chopped liver. His career best WARP3 is higher than Bedard's (7.7 to 7.1), and this year he's at 3.9 compared to Bedard's 6.0. Sosa's a cut below, but he's still nothing to thumb your nose at... 3.4 WARP3 so far.

[srock]

I'm am the point where I'd have no problem trading Bedard as long as we're going to seriously rebuild, which means Tejada, Hernandez, Roberts, and any other vet with decent value should be traded as well. Lets just stockpile as many talented 25 and under players and look towards the future.

I think it would be a mistake to trade Bedard without trading at least most of our other valuable vets.

YES!

How about replacing the entire front office this offseason as well? Change the entire culture of the organization.

Maybe Mazzone and Jordan being the only two staying on, they haven't been in teh organization long enough to be brainwashed with losing. I hope.

[geschinger]

You might get Minaya to give you Pelfrey and Milledge for Bedard.

He'd have to be pretty motivated to add another of his top 10 prospects on top of that though.

So it gets back to the question of whether you want the talent you acquire for a guy like Bedard spread across 1, 2 or 3 (or more) bodies.

FWIW, Ollie Perez is not exactly chopped liver. His career best WARP3 is higher than Bedard's (7.7 to 7.1), and this year he's at 3.9 compared to Bedard's 6.0. Sosa's a cut below, but he's still nothing to thumb your nose at... 3.4 WARP3 so far.

Anything is possible w/Minaya if they can get him fixated on Bedard. If he decides Bedard is whom he needs he'll give up the kitchen sink for him w/o blinking.

[nadecir]

Look at Perez' stats, age, and stuff, I don't think he'd be a bad 2nd piece of a 3 player return. I don't see why the Mets would trade him though. Would make more sense for both parties for it to be a prospect instead of Oliver.

Agreed. The Mets would want to keep Perez for a playoff run. Perez doesn't exactly fit with the Orioles' needs. Perez will be a free agent after 2008.

A Met prospect going the Orioles way makes a lot more sense.